MAILBAG: Who needs a win more Ryan Day or James Franklin, best SEC transfer portal additions and number of playoff teams from the ACC and Big 12?

The Week 9 mailbag is chalked with spicy College Football Playoff inquiries, plus Ryan Day versus James Franklin in a pressure-off and who are the best transfer portal acquisitions in the SEC?

As always, you can hit me up on X with a DM or tweet @JesseReSimonton or you can email me at [email protected] for all future questions.

ThatOleSmokey asks: Who do you think are the best portal acquisitions in the SEC so far?

With just a month remaining in the 2024 regular season, this is a fun question: Who nailed the transfer portal this year? In no specific order, these are my best acquisitions for SEC teams this fall:

QB Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt — Pissin’ Pavia has been a transcendent player for the ‘Dores. He leads the team in passing and rushing and the New Mexico State transfer spearheaded upsets against Va. Tech, No. 1 Alabama and Kentucky. 

DL Nic Scourton, Texas A&M — The Aggies have the best defensive line in the country, and the former Purdue edge is a major reason why. He’s tied for the league-lead with 12.5 tackles for loss, with five sacks and another 26 pressures. 

DL Walter Nolan and LB Chris Paul Jr., Ole Miss — The Rebels have been a disappointment this season but it’s not because of their defense. They’ve gotten their money’s worth from Nolan, as the Texas A&M transfer has graded out as the No. 3 run-defender among all interior DL, per PFF. He’s also chipped in three sacks and 24 pressures. Paul, a transfer from Arkansas, has been fantastic, too. He has 9.0 tackles for loss and has graded out as the best linebacker in the SEC.

DE Kyle Kennard, South Carolina — The Georgia Tech transfer has come out of nowhere to lead the SEC in sacks (8.5). He’s tied with Scourton with 12.5 tackles for loss and has forced two fumbles.

OL Parker Braislford and Kaydn Proctor, Alabama — The Tide’s offensive line has been up-and-down at times this year, but Braislford (the center from Washington) and Proctor (who briefly left the program for Iowa only to boomerang his way back to Tuscaloosa) have been excellent in pass protection — allowing just one sack and five hurries total all year. 

QB Taylen Green, Arkansas — The Boise State transfer has flourished in Bobby Petrino’s offense. Green has been turnover-prone (seven picks, multiple fumbles), but he has 16 touchdowns and has the Hogs on the cusp of bowl eligibility. 

A couple honorable mentions include Alabama edge LT Overton, Texas wideout Isaiah Bond, Texas A&M corner Dezz Ricks, Georgia running back Trevor Etienne, Florida wideout Elijah Badger and Auburn receiver KeAndre Lambert-Smith.

ThatOleSmokey didn’t ask about the inverse here, but some of the biggest SEC portal whiffs (especially for what it cost to land these players) have to include Kentucky quarterback Brock Vandagriff, Tennessee tackle Lance Heard, Ole Miss wideout Juice Wells and Oklahoma wideout Deion Burks, among others. 

Jackson asks: Who needs a win more this weekend between Ryan Day and James Franklin?

We have another Spiderman meme game here where both Ryan Day and James Franklin are pointing at the other about who’s under more pressure. 

There’s a case for both head coaches, but this is an Occam’s razor deal to me: The simplest answer is the right one. 

James Franklin always loses this game. Penn State is an underdog again, even at home going up against an Ohio State team likely down to its third-string left tackle. They might be without/or playing a limited starting quarterback Drew Allar, too. 

So while Franklin really needs a win to satiate the appetite of a Nittany Lions’ fan base hungry for a different result in a rivalry game, Ryan Day might have to walk back to Columbus if the Buckeyes lose Saturday. 

This is a burn the boats season for Ohio State. It went all-in, with a $20 million roster and preseason expectations of title-or-bust. If feels like every Buckeyes game is already an appraisal of Day’s coaching resume — and that’s with a one-point loss to the No. 1 team in the country at Oregon. 

But the issue for Day is Ohio State has really underwhelmed this season. They’ve slogged their way through multiple first-halves, lost a game it probably should’ve won at Oregon and then had to survive at home against Nebraska. 

Meanwhile, Indiana is 8-0, hasn’t trailed for a single minute all year and has won every game by at least two touchdowns. That’s what folks expected from Ohio State this season. 

While James Franklin is 1-8 vs. Top 5 teams (and 1-9 vs. Ohio State), Day is just 2-6 vs. Top 5 teams — with four straight losses. If he loses to Franklin and Penn State (again which might be starting a backup quarterback) then the Buckeyes Nation’s frustration will reach a boiling point that could be unrecoverable for a head coach that’s 62-9!

Wild. 

From Daniel: Running through SEC championship scenarios: Georgia lost to Alabama, which means they would lose the tie-breaker to LSU if they beat Alabama. What would Kirby Smart prefer. Playing in the championship game for a chance at a bye or finishing third and having a week off?

Daniel wasn’t the only Georgia fan who realized that they might be in the weird position of rooting for Alabama to beat LSU in two weeks to avoid a potential tie-breaker situation with the Tigers come the end of the season. 

But let’s play-out both scenarios: 

If Georgia runs the table, which means beating Florida, No. 19 Ole Miss and No. 8 Tennessee, and LSU beats No. 15 Alabama, and then handles business against Florida, Vandy and Oklahoma, then both teams would be 7-1 in SEC play. By virtue of beating Alabama, LSU would make the SEC Championship since UGA lost in Tuscaloosa.

In this hypothetical, Georgia could very well be ranked the No. 1 team in the final College Football Playoff Rankings — with wins over Clemson, Texas, Ole Miss and Tennessee — but locked into the No. 5 seed by virtue of not being able to play for an auto-bid. 

Still, it’s not a terrible outcome, as the No. 5 seed gets to host the No. 12 seed (a likely huge underdog) at home before playing the (likely) Big 12 champ. To win a national title, the Dawgs would still have to win the same amount of games as the SEC champion — only with two weeks off to prepare for their Round 1 opponent versus a bye week straight to the quarterfinals. 

But Kirby Smart … and likely every other coach in the country … would want a bye week straight to the quarterfinals. He wants to win the SEC, and there’s still a chance (however small it may be) that you could lose in Round 1 even at home to a lesser team. 

The irony is it may not matter what Smart wants. Georgia doesn’t control its destiny even if it has two of the most impressive wins in the country this season. 

From JC: Chances the ACC or Big 12 get multiple teams in the playoffs? What teams chances do you like the best?

I wrote about the potential ACC chaos situation earlier Wednesday, but there’s a very, very narrow path to the league getting three teams into the 12-team field. 

But two?

Very possible. 

Miami, with its remaining schedule, is close to a lock, per most models. ESPN’s FPI gives the ‘Canes a 90% chance to make the playoff, while another model has them closer to 94%. 

Clemson, which is 6-1 (5-0 in the ACC) with a loss to No. 2 Georgia, might actually be a better team than Miami, and if it makes it to the ACC Championship and beats the ‘Canes, the Tigers would obviously make the dance, too. But if the Tigers go 10-2, they could be on the outside looking in depending on how the rest of the field shakes out. ESPN’s FPI gives Clemson just a 33% chance at the playoffs, while The Athletic has almost double the odds at 62%. I think it’s probably somewhere in the middle, but I lean both Miami and Clemson making the playoff, with SMU on the outside at around 10-2. 

The Big 12 is a one-bid league. 

Since it is election season, let’s use a popular parlance here: There is a very “narrow path” for the conference getting two teams in. Very narrow. 

Yes, Iowa State and Boise State are undefeated right now, but they both have less than a 10% chance to win out. Come the end of the season, only BYU’s resume (with wins over SMU and Kansas State) is going to really stand out. 

As I see it, the best avenue for Brett Yormark’s league to get two teams in is:

— Iowa State goes 11-0 but loses to Kansas State regular-season finale — Kansas State wins out, nets a Top 10 victory over ISU and hols the tie-breaker to make the Big 12 title 

— BYU runs the table to 12-0 but then loses to Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship 

— Kansas State earns the auto-bid, while BYU sneaks into the field as an 11 or 12-seed.