March Madness: Wednesday’s conference tournament breakdown

To true college basketball aficionados, the real “March Madness” already has started. That’s because the “lesser” conference tournaments already have begun; those are the leagues in which you must win your conference tourney to even get into the Big Dance. The pressure is immense, and a marvelous regular season means nothing.

Here’s a look at the two tournaments that start Wednesday; one involves one of the most interesting mid-majors in the nation, Murray State from the Ohio Valley Conference. Three more tourneys start Thursday. (Here’s a look at the complete conference tournament schedule. March Madness reigns.)

Big South Conference

When: March 2, 4-6 (the schedule is here)
Where: Bojangles Coliseum, Charlotte
TV for final: March 6, noon ET, ESPN2
Regular-season champ: Longwood
Format: All 12 teams qualify.
Projected NCAA bids: 1.
The buzz: Longwood (23-6) lost one conference game and won the regular-season title by a game over Winthrop (21-8); everybody else was at least three games behind Winthrop. It would be a major surprise if someone other than Longwood or Winthrop wins this tourney. Longwood beat Winthrop by four at home in their only meeting. This is Longwood’s 15^th season in Division I and the first time the Lancers have won more than 17 games; this is their 10^th season in the Big South and the first time they’ve been above .500 in league play. Winthrop, which is seeking its 12^th NCAA appearance, is a good shooting team but turnover-prone. Longwood, which prefers a deliberate pace, has won five in a row, but the average margin of victory in those games was just 5.0 points per game. All five of those opponents are seeded sixth or lower in this tournament.
The pick: Winthrop

Ohio Valley Conference

When: March 2-5 (the schedule is here)
Where: Ford Center, Evansville, Ind.
TV for final: March 5, 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2
Regular-season champ: Murray State
Format: The top eight in the 10-team league qualify for the tournament; UT-Martin and Eastern Illinois are the teams that missed.
Projected NCAA bids: 1-2.
The buzz: This is one of the most interesting of the “small” conference tournaments because of Murray State (28-2). The Racers finished 18-0 in OVC play, won the league by three games and are 24^th in the NET rankings (they’re 25^th in kenpom.com). They easily swept the season series against second-place Belmont (60^th in the NET rankings), with the combined victory margin in the two games a whopping 55 points. But Murray State has only two Quad 1 wins and has played just six games (it’s 5-1) against teams in Quad 1 and 2; 16 wins have come over Quad 4 teams. Are the Racers in if they lose in the conference tourney final? You’d hope so. What about in the semis (they have a bye through the first two rounds)? Hmmm. A loss in the semis would come to a team ranked no better than the 250s in the NET. Of course, given how they’ve cut a wide swath through the league this season, the Racers are the heavy favorite thanks to the presence of K.J. Williams (18.5 points per game, 8.5 rebounds per game) and Tevin Brown (16.4 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 39.3 percent from 3-point range). Belmont is a solid offensive team, though not as good from beyond the arc as usual. But in the two losses to Murray, the Bruins allowed the Racers to shoot 53.8 percent from the field, including 50 percent from 3-point range (22-of-44). Third-seeded Morehead State is the other team to watch, though the Eagles come in having lost four of six.
The pick: Murray State