March Madness: Wednesday’s conference tournament breakdown

We’re well into the second week of conference tournaments, which means we’re already into the second week of “March Madness.” Most of the “lesser” conference tournaments began last week; those are the conferences in which you must win your tourney to even get into the Big Dance. The pressure is immense, and a marvelous regular season can mean nothing. There are a handful of those tournaments this week, too.

Here’s a look at the 11 tournaments that start Wednesday (including four one-bid-league tourneys). (Here’s a look at the complete conference tournament schedule. All hail March Madness.)

Atlantic 10

When: Today-Sunday (the schedule is here)
Where: Capital One Arena, Washington, D.C.
TV for final: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Regular-season champ: Davidson
Format: All 14 teams qualify. Top four seeds get byes to quarterfinals.
Projected NCAA bids: 1-2
The buzz: Davidson, VCU and Dayton, probably in that order, have NCAA at-large hopes, but those hopes are faint. For sure, it’s going to require getting to the title game. Dayton and VCU are on the same side of the bracket and would meet in a semifinal. All three schools have just two Quad 1 wins. Dayton leads the trio with six Quad 2 wins, but the Flyers also have three Quad 4 losses, with three of those coming at home. Davidson is one of the most efficient offensive teams in the nation, as per kenpom.com, and is quite good from 3-point range. Defensively? Well, the Wildcats can struggle on that end of the court. VCU’s calling card is its defense, while Dayton is solid on both ends of the court. Six of the Flyers’ top eight scorers are freshman, and there is just one upperclassman on the roster. In other words, if Dayton makes the NCAAs, it’s a year ahead of schedule. Each of the top three split the season series with the other two.
The pick: Davidson

Big East

When: Today-Saturday (the schedule is here)
Where: Madison Square Garden, New York
TV for final: Saturday, 6:30 p.m. ET, Fox
Regular-season champ: Providence
Format: All 11 teams qualify. Top five seeds get byes to quarterfinals.
Projected NCAA bids: 6-7
The buzz: There are five NCAA locks: Providence, Villanova, UConn, Marquette and Seton Hall. Creighton looks solid, too, and the Bluejays can remove any lingering doubt with a win over Marquette in the quarterfinals. The one team truly on the bubble is Xavier, which has fallen apart late; the Musketeers were 16-5 at one point, but now are 18-12. Beating Butler in the first round (i.e., avoiding a bad loss) might be enough to get in. A win over Butler means a meeting with Providence in the quarterfinals, and beating the Friars would lock up a bid. Xavier lost at Providence in triple-overtime on February 23 in one of the best games of the season. Villanova has a shot at a No. 2 seed if everything breaks exactly right; the same with Providence and a No. 3. But “everything” encompasses some other major-conference teams losing, so that is out of their control.
The pick: Villanova

Big Sky Conference

When: Today-Saturday (the schedule is here)
Where: Idaho Central Arena, Boise
TV for final: Saturday, 9 p.m. ET, ESPNU
Regular-season champ: Montana State
Format: The top eight in the 11-team league qualify, and the top five seeds get byes to quarterfinals.
Projected NCAA bids: 1
The buzz: Montana State won the league by two games and is aiming for its first NCAA bid since 1996, when current Bobcats coach Danny Sprinkle was a freshman at the school. Montana State leans on its defense and has won 15 of its past 17 games. If fourth-seeded Weber State can regain its midseason form, watch out. The Wildcats started 11-1 in Big Sky play but finished 13-7. Third-seeded Northern Colorado is dangerous because of its 3-point shooting; the Bears shoot 38.2 percent from beyond the arc, 10^th nationally. They’re lackluster defensively, though.
The pick: Montana State

Big Ten

When: Today-Sunday (the schedule is here)
Where: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis
TV for final: Sunday, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS
Regular-season champ: Illinois
Format: All 14 teams qualify. The top four seeds get byes to the quarterfinals. Teams seeded 6-10 get first-round byes.
Projected NCAA bids: 6-8
The buzz: This will be interesting. Illinois, Wisconsin, Purdue, Iowa, Ohio State and Michigan State are locks, though the Buckeyes and Spartans have stumbled down the stretch and will be looking to regain their footing. Fourth-seeded Rutgers is squarely on the bubble. While the Scarlet Knights have six Quad 1 wins, they’re 76^th in the NET rankings and have two Quad 3 and one Quad 4 loss (to Lafayette, which finished eighth in the Patriot League). Rutgers has a bye to the quarterfinals, where it likely will meet Iowa. If that indeed is the case, beating Iowa would remove any doubt. No. 8 Michigan and No. 9 Indiana also are squarely on the bubble — and they meet in a second-round game Thursday. That’s a must-win for the Hoosiers and an it-would-be-good-to-win for the Wolverines; no question it’s a bigger deal for IU. The winner gets Illinois in a quarterfinal, and beating the Illini would lock up a bid. No Big Ten team is in the running for a No. 1 seed, but a No. 2 is possible for Illinois, Purdue and Wisconsin if everything breaks right; one of those things is a Big Ten tourney title. What seems more likely is that there will be two No. 3s and a No. 4 among that trio.
The pick: Purdue

Big 12

When: Today-Saturday (the schedule is here)
Where: T-Mobile Center, Kansas City
TV for final: Saturday, 6 p.m. ET, ESPN
Regular-season champ: Kansas
Format: 9 of the 10 teams qualify. Oklahoma State is ineligible for the postseason because of NCAA violations. Seven of the nine teams get first-round byes.
Projected NCAA bids: 5-6
The buzz: Kansas, Baylor, Texas Tech, Texas and TCU are locks; Iowa State has some impressive wins, for sure, but the Cyclones also finished four games below .500 in conference play. If Iowa State doesn’t want to be sweating it out on Selection Sunday, beating Texas Tech in the quarterfinals would do the trick. Baylor and Kansas each have a shot at a No. 1 seed. And it’s possible both could be No. 1s. The further each goes in this tourney, the better. Baylor is in better shape for a No. 1 than Kansas, though, even though KU won the tiebreaker for the No. 1 seed in the conference tournament.
The pick: Kansas

Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

When: Today-Saturday (the schedule is here)
Where: Norfolk Scope, Norfolk, Va.
TV for final: Saturday, 1 p.m. ET, ESPN2
Regular-season champ: Norfolk State
Format: All eight teams qualify, with no byes.
Projected NCAA bids: 1
The buzz: Norfolk State won the regular-season title by three games and is playing in its home city, though not its home arena. Per kenpom.com metrics, the Spartans have been the best team in league play by a wide margin on both offense and defense. Norfolk State won the MEAC tourney last season, then beat Appalachian State in an NCAA play-in game. (Yeah, yeah, we know the NCAA calls it the “First Four.” But, hey, we’re just being truthful.) Fourth-seeded Morgan State handed Norfolk one of its two league losses; the Bears play good defense and come in having won four of five.
The pick: Norfolk State

Mountain West Conference

When: Today-Saturday (the schedule is here)
Where: Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas
TV for final: Saturday, 6 p.m. ET, CBS
Regular-season champ: Boise State
Format: All 11 teams qualify, and the top five seeds get byes to the quarterfinals.
Projected NCAA bids: 3-4
The buzz: Boise State, Colorado State and San Diego State are NCAA locks; the other team with a chance is Wyoming. The fourth-seeded Cowboys get UNLV in the quarterfinals; remember, this tourney is played on UNLV’s home floor. A win in that one and Wyoming almost certainly would get Boise in the semis, and a victory over the Broncos would lock up a bid. A loss to UNLV, though, easily could keep Wyoming out of the field. Boise State and Colorado State can improve their NCAA seedings by winning this tourney. Colorado State, which comes in having won eight of nine, swept the Broncos in the regular season. Third-seeded San Diego State has won nine of 10; the lone loss in that stretch was by one point at Boise State. Indeed, the Aztecs lost twice to Boise this season and scored a total of 94 points in the losses. Yep, 94.
The pick: Colorado State

Pac-12

When: Today-Saturday (the schedule is here)
Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
TV for final: Saturday, 9 p.m. ET, Fox
Regular-season champ: Arizona
Format: All 12 teams qualify. The top four seeds get byes to the quarterfinals.
Projected NCAA bids: 3-4
The buzz: Arizona, UCLA and USC are NCAA locks; the only way anybody else makes the NCAA field is winning this tournament. At one point, Oregon looked like it was set up for a strong finish, but instead the Ducks, seeded fifth here, faded badly. Arizona is in great shape for a No. 1 seed; a tourney win here could get UCLA into the discussion for a No. 2, assuming some other power-conference teams fall early in their league tourneys. Fourth-seeded Colorado and eighth-seeded Arizona State have played well down the stretch; each comes in having won seven of their past eight. Both are on Arizona’s side of the bracket.
The pick: Arizona

SEC

When: Today-Sunday (the schedule is here)
Where: Amelie Arena, Tampa
TV for final: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, ESPN
Regular-season champ: Auburn
Format: All 14 teams qualify. The top four seeds get byes to the quarterfinals. Teams seeded 6-10 get first-round byes.
Projected NCAA bids: 6-7
The buzz: Six teams are locks: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Kentucky, LSU and Tennessee. Auburn and Kentucky are in the mix for a No. 1 seed, and Tennessee could get a No. 2 if everything breaks exactly right. Arkansas has a great shot at a No. 4. Thus, four of the top 16 seeds could be SEC teams. If Florida can get to the semifinals — which would mean beating Texas A&M, then top-seeded Auburn — the Gators have a legit shot at an at-large; if the Gators get to the final, they should get in the NCAAs. The same goes for Texas A&M, too, though. Nobody else has a real shot at an at-large.
The pick: Kentucky

Southland Conference

When: Today-Saturday (the schedule is here)
Where: Merrell Center, Katy, Texas
TV for final: Saturday, 9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2
Regular-season champ: Nicholls State
Format: All eight teams qualify. The top two seeds get byes to the semifinals, while the Nos. 3 and 4 seeds get byes to the quarterfinals.
Projected NCAA bids: 1
The buzz: Nicholls State won the regular-season title by a game over New Orleans and Southeastern Louisiana. The Colonels come in having won 10 of 11, with the only loss a two-pointer at Southeastern, which swept the season series. Southeastern Louisiana isn’t much defensively, but the Lions get to the free-throw line often and love a fast pace. Nicholls State does most of its damage in the paint but is horrible from the line (62.1 percent), next-to-last nationally. New Orleans has struggled defensively of late, but the Privateers also do a lot of damage in the paint and live at the line (per kenpom.com. UNO scores almost 24 percent of its points on foul shots).
The pick: Southeastern Louisiana

Southwestern Athletic Conference

When: Today-Saturday (the schedule is here)
Where: Bartow Arena, Birmingham, Ala.
TV for final: March 12, 6 p.m. ET, ESPNU
Regular-season champ: Alcorn State
Format: The top eight in the 12-team league qualify, with no byes.
Projected NCAA bids: 1
The buzz: Alcorn State finished the regular season with a six-game winning streak, which enabled the Braves to take the title. Alcorn is 15-15, and only two league teams are above .500 overall — second-seeded Texas Southern (15-12) and third-seeded Southern U. (17-13). Alcorn swept Texas Southern and beat Southern in their only matchup. Texas Southern owns the league’s best nonconference win; the Tigers won by 15 at Florida on December 6. Alcorn lost just four league games, but one of them was at home to eighth-seeded Prairie View — which is the Braves’ first-round opponent; in the other meeting, Alcorn escaped with a three-point victory. Texas Southern comes in having won 10 of 12, but the losses were at home to Alcorn and Southern. Southern is a defense-minded team but doesn’t mind an up-tempo game.
The pick: Southern