Marshall vs. Kentucky odds: Win probability, final score prediction for Thundering Herd, Wildcats

No. 16 Kentucky and Marshall will both be playing their sixth games of the season when they meet in Rupp Arena on tonight.

The Wildcats could end up in a sandwich spot here against the Thundering Herd. They’ll be coming off an overtime win over Saint Joseph’s from earlier this week while UK also has a Top-20 matchup with No. 10 Miami in the ACC/SEC Challenge next week.

With one team looking for their fifth win of the season and the other looking for their third, this is an important matchup for both squads on Black Friday.

Odds for Marshall vs. Kentucky

FanDuel currently has Kentucky as an 18.5-point favorite over Marshall. The over-under for game right now is at 157.5 points.

If nothing else, this should likely be another high-scoring affair involving the Wildcats. Over their first five games, they new-look offense for UK has posted 80+ in every game with an average of 89.6. However, the young ‘Cats are still a work on defense as they’ve given up 81.3 over their last three. In total, that’s an average of almost 160 points per game in contests involving the blue and white.

Final score predictions for Marshall vs. Kentucky

BPI Predicted winner: Kentucky
BPI Predicted point differential: 11.6
BPI Win probability (for Kentucky): 83.3%
BPI Matchup Quality: 68.1

ESPN’s BPI isn’t too high on this as an individual matchup overall. On today’s slate of games, it ranks at just No. 17 on the schedule with that matchup quality of 68.1. The index also isn’t certain if Kentucky can cover over Marshall with a smaller point differential.

Still, in the end, it has UK coming out victorious in some form or fashion with an 83.3% win probability.

KenPom Predicted final score: Kentucky 87, Marshall 69
KenPom Win probability (for Kentucky): 96%

Over at KenPom, they’re also high on the Wildcats as their No. 10 unit when it comes to offensive rating.

In the site’s prediction, they have Kentucky as a heavier favorite than ESPN’s BPI with an 18-point margin of victory and a probability of winning of 96%.

How to watch Marshall vs. Kentucky

Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
Channel: SEC Network, FuboTV (streaming)
Location: Lexington (KY)

No. 16 Kentucky vs. Marshall will get underway at 7 p.m. EST on the SEC Network. It will be the only game on the channel today with a handful of other teams in the conference finding their games on SEC Network+.

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Again, this could be a tricky spot for Kentucky to rebound in, especially if they’re still juggling injury concerns. That could make it a prime opportunity for Marshall to make a statement after a slow start or, as the predictions and metrics suggest, it could end up as another early mark in the win column for the Wildcats.