Five-star to Super Bowl: Remembering Matthew Stafford as a generational QB recruit

On Sunday, Matthew Stafford will become the second former five-star quarterback of the internet recruiting era to start a Super Bowl, joining Cam Newton. Stafford is the first quarterback who who was ranked as a five-star across the board to start in the sport’s biggest game.

Prior to becoming the No. 1 pick in the 2009 NFL Draft out of Georgia, Stafford was the nation’s top-ranked quarterback prospect in the 2006 recruiting cycle. All three major media companies at the time ranked him as a five-star prospect. He was the No. 1 quarterback in the cycle and a top ten prospect according to both Rivals.com and ESPN.

You did not have to squint to see Stafford as an elite quarterback prospect. Even Mel Kiper got in on the action, reportedly predicting Stafford would be the No. 1 pick in the draft while he was still in high school.

Stafford was the top high school quarterback prospect over a 16 year period, spanning from Vince Young (2002) to Trevor Lawrence (2018). An argument could be made for Kyler Murray (2014) in hindsight, but he was not a consensus five-star at the time of his recruitment.

The word “generational” is consistently overused in describing prospects at all levels and usually best applied after the fact. With that said, Stafford was by definition a generational quarterback prospect.

Many accounts of Stafford as a high school prospect are anecdotal. There’s an inexplicably small amount of video from his time at Highland Park High School in Dallas remaining on internet. Most of the available video was shot from field level.

Trust me when I say Stafford had as projectable a skill set that you’ll ever see from a prep quarterback prospect.

The recruiting industry as a whole has steadily improved at evaluating quarterbacks in recent years. Increased source material and a clearer image of critical factors at the position are largely responsible. This dovetails with the evolution of offense in the college and pro games, which has lead to better evaluations at all levels.

If anything, Matthew Stafford would be even more of a no-brainer in this current climate. Given how we approach rankings now, I’m confident in saying he would be the No. 1 prospect in most cycles.

Stafford’s special arm talent

Matthew Stafford‘s combination of arm strength, dexterity and lightning-quick release made for one of the top high school talents we’ve ever seen at the position. The 6-foot-3, 210-pounder effortlessly drove the football to all levels of the field. The ball shot out of his hand. Stafford paired that arm talent with outstanding feet and very good mobility outside the pocket.

On3 Senior National Recruiting Analyst Gerry Hamilton has covered recruiting in the state of Texas for two decades and saw Stafford up close on several occasions.

“The thing that stood out to me was how he could deliver the ball from any arm angle,” says Hamilton. “He was accurate under duress if he dropped his arm. If he was rolling to his left or right under duress – he made accurate throws when the heat was on him. He had the ability to extend the play. Then when he was in the pocket, his arm talent was on another level. He could be late seeing something and still rip the ball in there and the DB didn’t have time to react. He was a natural back shoulder thrower.”

Stafford was not only a pure arm talent. He was technically advanced, particularly as a senior at Highland Park.

“It’s always underrated with quarterbacks, but man, he was a great ball handler,” Hamilton adds. “He maxed out fakes and it made him really good in the screen game and quick game. He was so smooth.”

Where does Stafford stack up among Lone Star state quarterbacks Hamilton has seen in the past 20 years?

“I think he is the best natural passer of anybody in the state during that time. I don’t see how you could say anything differently. I don’t think he had the strongest arm – but he’s right there. Ryan Mallett had the strongest arm any of us have ever seen in this business. But I think Matthew Stafford was the most natural passer of anybody. The only guy that would be comparable is Kyler Murray.”

Elite high school production

Matthew Stafford‘s unique passing talent manifested on the field by way of elite production. He had a huge senior campaign while leading Highland Park to an undefeated season and 4A Division I State Championship.

The playoff run saw Stafford out-duel fellow blue-chip quarterback prospects Ryan Mallett and Jevan Snead in one-score victories.

When the dust settled, Stafford had completed 209 of 322 passes (64.9%) for 4,108 yards and 38 touchdowns while rushing for 212 yards and eight more scores. That’s despite missing the first three games of the season with an injury.

The statistical picture jives with what you’d see on video or in person. Stafford was completely carving up defenses. He averaged over 342 passing yards per game with a gaudy 12.8 yards per attempt. The yards per attempt is the third-highest of any highly-drafted quarterback in recent years and just one tenth behind his Super Bowl foe Joe Burrow (2015) and Trevor Lawrence (2018).

Keep in mind Stafford was doing this in the fall of 2005, not 2015. Offensive football was quite different back then. Every high school in Texas was not yet running a version of the Air Raid or Art Briles’ offense like they do now.

Stafford was also not throwing to a bevy of college-level athletes like fellow 2006 five-star quarterback Mitch Mustain. He elevated his supporting cast and won against strong competition.

Stafford’s steady improvement

Continual progression throughout the high school career is a common thread among almost all quarterbacks who become top NFL Draft picks. It is uncommon to see a highly-drafted quarterback who not did play at a very high level as a senior in high school. They’re almost all easily identified as ascending players as they matriculate to the college level. This was the case with Stafford.

After a disappointing junior season that saw Highland Park bounced in the first round of the playoffs, Stafford fully dedicated himself to improving in the offseason. He reportedly committed to Georgia early in order to minimize any recruiting distractions and turn his full focus towards preparing for his senior season.

That mindset and dedication paired with his top talent helped pave the way for an outstanding career – one that could culminate in a Super Bowl win on Sunday night.