Miami, SMU rankings reveal the truth about the College Football Playoff Committee

The harsh reality of the ACC this season is it’s a one-bid league, which means the rankings for everyone in the conference are irrelevant. The ACC Champion has an automatic bid into the College Football Playoff, and everyone else in that conference will be left home. It’s that simple.

The eventual ACC champion could be ranked No. 1 or No. 100 right now, but the path is the same.

That should make SMU fans feel better about the CFP Committee’s rankings Tuesday evening. Despite having a nearly identical resume — and a better loss — than Miami, SMU checked in five spots behind the Hurricanes. Miami was No. 9. and SMU was No. 14.

On the surface, that seems significant. Miami would be in if the season ended today. SMU would be out. Of course, the season doesn’t end today, and if both teams keep winning, they’ll eventually meet on the field for the chance to punch their ticket to the CFP.

But the question has to be asked: Why, exactly, is Miami five spots ahead of SMU? Why is Miami ranked ahead of SMU at all? The answer from College Football Playoff Committee chair Warde Manuel was interesting.

“It’s a great question because both of the teams are very similar teams,” Manuel said. “We obviously have factored in who they played, who they’ve beat throughout the season, and so we just felt that in looking at Miami and SMU that Miami – their offense is very dominant in terms of how they’ve been winning. Haven’t been as consistent defensively. So is SMU. They’ve won very good – they were playing two quarterbacks at the beginning of the year. Great speed, a physical team. So we’ve been impressed by both.

“Just based on their body of work, the committee had the discussions, the feeling was that Miami was ahead of SMU in terms of their performance this year.”

Read the last part of the quote again. “Based on their body of work” and “the feeling” don’t mesh well with me. Which one is it? Based on data and protocol or feelings?

SMU and Miami have the same best quality win — No. 19 Louisville. SMU’s lone loss was to No. 6 BYU, while the Hurricanes are coming off a loss to Georgia Tech over the weekend. The strength of schedules are marginally different. What in the data shows Miami — who would probably be a 3-point favorite over SMU — is five spots better in the polls?

The actual reason is the Hurricanes have Cam Ward and an exciting offense. We think Miami would beat SMU in a head-to-head matchup, so we go on feeling.

The problem, though, is we should be using all of the information we have right now to rank the teams properly, not falling back on feelings of what we think would happen in the future. Isn’t one of the Committee’s favorite sayings “we don’t project the future?” What do we have in terms of tangible information now that shows Miami is five spots better than SMU?

There really is no harm to this because, again, this is all going to work itself out if Miami and SMU play each other in the ACC Championship. Both are in the same position in that regard. Win the conference and get into the Playoff. Lose and you’re out.

But this is a message that we all have to remember moving forward: the Committee is going to do what it wants. They are highly-responsible and dedicated people, but they are also people who watch the games and have their own feelings.

They don’t use the protocol to rank teams. They rank the teams and use the protocol after to justify it. And when there’s nothing in the statistics or protocol to justify those rankings? We move to feelings.

SMU should be upset over the message this sends, but the Mustangs aren’t going to be hurt by it because they control their own destiny.

At the end of the year, though, feelings are going to come up again.

And someone else may not be as lucky as SMU.