Michigan and Washington in the national title game give other teams reason to hope
HOUSTON — Two seasons ago, Washington was 4-8. Three seasons ago, Michigan slashed Jim Harbaugh’s pay and gave him an ultimatum: Get better or else.
Monday night, the Huskies will play the Wolverines in a national title matchup that wouldn’t have taken place five years ago. One or both of these teams might have been able to make the four-team playoff, but at some point they probably would have been smashed by a team that stacked top-five recruiting classes atop one another.
The rapid change in the sport — decried by an old guard that got fat off NCAA rules now being gutted by state legislatures and federal courts — has made it possible for more teams to have a chance to win the national title. Contrary to what the status quo-lovers claimed, name, image and likeness payments and a virtual elimination of the transfer rules have not made the top teams even deeper. They have spread the talent in a more efficient manner. That doesn’t mean Purdue and Vanderbilt should suddenly start planning national title celebrations, but it does mean far more teams than before have a chance to actually compete for the national title. And these changes have hit just as the sport is about to make three times as many teams eligible to play in the tournament that determines the national champion.
In other words, 2024 is going to be lit.
But before we enumerate who has a chance to be in this game next year, let’s discuss the two teams playing for this year’s title. Washington and Michigan each beat one of those talent-stacking teams (Texas and Alabama, respectively) to get here.
Michigan’s win in the Rose Bowl was the most telling. Alabama had a center who couldn’t snap the ball effectively. This wasn’t news to the Crimson Tide. It had been a problem all season. In 2012 or 2017, that problem would have been solved by plugging in yet another future NFL player who could get the ball to the quarterback without the QB having to pick the ball off his shoelaces. But 2023 Alabama had no such player on the roster, because NIL and transfers have made it so that some players with NFL aspirations aren’t willing to wait years to start for the Crimson Tide when they can get paid to start right now. Georgia, the team Alabama beat in the SEC title game to give itself a chance to make the playoff, was depleted by injuries in its receiving corps. The Bulldogs won the 2021 and 2022 national titles by being the deepest, most talented team in America. But when they needed someone to make a catch in a big game in 2023, A.D. Mitchell — who caught a touchdown pass in each of the four career College Football Playoff games he played for Georgia — was busy helping Texas win the Big 12 title and securing a CFP berth.
Washington used the transfer portal to bolster an already-solid roster. Receiver Ja’Lynn Polk transferred to the Huskies in 2021 after playing at Texas Tech. He combined with homegrown receivers Rome Odunze and Jalen McMillan to form a potent trio of pass-catchers. Dillon Johnson came from Mississippi State this past offseason to bolster a running back room that was supposed to be led by junior Cam Davis. But when Davis was lost for the season to an injury suffered in preseason practice, Johnson stepped in to carry the load.
Of course, the Huskies wouldn’t be here without transfer quarterback Michael Penix Jr., who left Indiana broken following three consecutive season-ending injuries and grew into one of the nation’s best QBs after reuniting with former Indiana offensive coordinator (and current Washington head coach) Kalen DeBoer. Meanwhile, Washington’s collective spent efficiently to keep experienced offensive and defensive lines together.
Michigan, meanwhile, bolstered its offensive line by grabbing experienced Pac-12 linemen (offensive tackle LaDarius Henderson from Arizona State and center Drake Nugent from Stanford). The Wolverines added another weapon on the defensive line in edge rusher Josaiah Stewart from Coastal Carolina. None of these players were five-star recruits, but unlike most five-star freshmen, they were guaranteed to be immediate high-level contributors. They’d already proven over a period of years they could play at a high level. So for a team that always recruited well — but maybe not to the level of Ohio State — the gap was closed with experienced talent rather than high-ceiling raw talent.
Not every team in the FBS can do what Washington and Michigan have done. But far more can mix the new roster-building and retention to create a team capable of competing for a title than could 10 or even five years ago. Back then, Alabama and Ohio State hogged most of the talent. The occasional Clemson or LSU might build a roster capable of winning a title. Kirby Smart finally unlocked Georgia when he arrived. But the old rules — no paying players and undergraduates had to sit out a year after they transferred — allowed a select few programs to hoard talent.
That isn’t the case now. Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State still have the most talent, but none of them are as deep as they used to be. Schools such as Oregon, Texas and Tennessee have proven willing to spend big on NIL, attracting players who before would have gone to one of the superpowers strictly for their ability to develop NFL draft picks. States such as Arkansas, Oklahoma and Missouri tweaked their NIL laws to give their schools an advantage in keeping top talent. Missouri has kept national top-three recruits (receiver Luther Burden in 2022 and defensive lineman Williams Nwaneri) in the state in two of the past three recruiting classes while also improving everywhere else on the roster.
The new rules — and a new CFP format arriving next year — have infused hope in places that couldn’t dream of national titles before. When those athletic directors and conference commissioners told you these changes would ruin the sport, they were lying to you. They wanted to keep their share of the money constant. They thought you were too stupid to believe your own eyes. The rules that protected their money also produced America’s most competitively lopsided major sport. It turns out in real life that letting players have a little more of the largesse also makes the sport more competitive and more fun.
The best way to illustrate that is to list the teams that should go into 2024 thinking they have at least a puncher’s chance at winning the national title. And the best part is that some program not on this list might wind up playing for the title. Michigan certainly would have made all of these lists this time last year. Washington probably made some of them, but not all.
Here’s the list for 2024…
The Superpowers
Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State
Just because the sport has gotten more competitive doesn’t mean the teams that recruit the best suddenly stink. The teams in this group still have the best year-in, year-out chance to win a national title. They also are best built to run the gauntlet that will be the expanded playoff. This isn’t meant to be a buzzkill, though. As noted above, Alabama didn’t have a backup center this year. No one who watched Ohio State would have expected the Buckeyes to win three or four playoff games in a row. The Bulldogs might have won the CFP had they gotten in, but they also might have lost the same way they did to Alabama because they also weren’t as deep as they had been the two previous seasons.
The NIL up-and-comers
Texas, Oregon
The Longhorns and Ducks aren’t on this list only because they’re willing to spend. Steve Sarkisian and Dan Lanning also have proven at previous jobs and at these that they can develop players once they get them. The willingness to combine quality recruiting out of high school with NIL offerings that attract transfers to fill roster holes should give both programs a chance to make the 12-team CFP in most years.
Team Transfer Portal
Ole Miss, Louisville
Rebels coach Lane Kiffin hasn’t been shy about building through the portal. And like Florida State’s Mike Norvell in 2023, Kiffin looks like he has a special group in Oxford in 2024.
Quarterback Jaxson Dart (who transferred from USC for 2022) will have dynamic targets in Tre Harris (who transferred from Louisiana Tech for 2023) and Juice Wells (who transferred from South Carolina for 2024). Meanwhile, Ole Miss has upgraded its defensive front through the portal this offseason with defensive tackle Walter Nolen (Texas A&M) and edge rushers Tyler Baron (Tennessee) and Princely Umanmielen (Florida).
Yes, the Rebels just lost tailback Quinshon Judkins to the portal, but if Harris and Wells are the kind of tandem coaches believe they could be, Ole Miss will be running into light boxes and the players getting those carries will reap the benefits.
Louisville ended the season on a sour note, but coach Jeff Bohm has been very productive in the portal sprucing up a roster that showed promise in 2023. Quarterback Tyler Shough, who has played at Oregon and Texas Tech, has had a Penix-like injury history. But Brohm wasn’t the only coach who thought “If he could just stay healthy for one season…” If Shough can stay healthy, perhaps he can take the kind of leap Penix did.
The Roster Rebuilders
Michigan, Washington, Missouri
All of these teams had incredible seasons in 2023 thanks in part to a heavy veteran presence throughout the two-deep. Michigan will lose the most players to the NFL, but all three will need to replace key contributors all over the field.
But that doesn’t mean they can’t. This is easier for the schools that recruit at the Alabama/Georgia/Ohio State level, but as Michigan has shown with its deft use of the transfer portal, holes can be filled strategically.
The Alamo Bowl Bump
Arizona, Oklahoma
Texas and Washington played in the Alamo Bowl to close the 2022 season, and then played in a CFP semifinal in the Sugar Bowl after the 2023 season. The Wildcats and Sooners feels as if they’re on similar trajectories.
Jedd Fisch’s Arizona team was one of the nation’s hottest down the stretch. The Wildcats started 3-3 and then won their final seven games. They’ve kept together a core group built around the recruiting class of 2022, and now transfers want to play for a winner, too. With the commissioners who run the CFP about to change the format to allow for five automatic conference champion bids instead of six, the Big 12 champ will be seeded in the top four (which requires a conference title) and get a bye in most years. Arizona is moving to the Big 12 next season. It probably will have to fight off Utah and Kansas State to win its new league, but a group led by QB Noah Fifita has a real chance to win the conference in year one.
Meanwhile, the Sooners have upgraded their roster on the lines of scrimmage since coach Brent Venables replaced Lincoln Riley. Quarterback Jackson Arnold looked like the true freshman he was while losing to the Wildcats in the Alamo Bowl, but he also showed flashes of why Oklahoma fans have been excited about him for two years. The move to the SEC means a more rugged schedule, but the move to a 12-team playoff means more possible paths to a title.
The Schedule Advantage
Notre Dame, Florida State, Clemson
While Big Ten and SEC teams will play more difficult schedules in 2024, Notre Dame has one of the easiest slates it’s had in years. A visit to Texas A&M and and visits from Louisville and Florida State should be the toughest challenges. Maybe USC provides some resistance, but that will require the Trojans to show us more once the season begins.
Florida State has some special players to replace, but this will be Norvell’s chance to show that he and his staff can develop the players they recruited out of high school. Florida State paid to keep defensive coordinator Adam Fuller, and offensive coordinator Alex Atkins hasn’t gotten a head coaching job yet (he will), so the Seminoles’ continuity should help. But either transfer DJ Uiagalelei or rising sophomore Brock Glenn will have to be better than they’ve shown if the Seminoles want to repeat as ACC champs (which probably would get them a bye).
Clemson, meanwhile, still feels like threat to win the ACC. Dabo Swinney’s program is still bringing in high school talent at a decent rate, but his refusal to use the transfer portal could mean this is the last year for a while that the Tigers make this kind of list.
The New Coordinators
Penn State
We’ve always looked at the Nittany Lions as one of the teams that would benefit the most from an expanded playoff. Those teams that just missed might have been able to make a run under the right circumstances.
But the 2023 team didn’t feel like one that could win a title, even if it probably would have made a 12-team CFP. The Nittany Lions were too limited offensively to compete with the best of the Big Ten. It’ll be up to new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki (from Kansas) to unlock quarterback Drew Allar. The addition of transfer receiver Julian Fleming (Ohio State) should help, but the Nittany Lions need to develop more dynamic pass catchers.
Defensively, Penn State didn’t want coordinator Manny Diaz to leave. But he got hired as Duke’s head coach. In comes former Indiana coach Tom Allen, who will be working with more talent than he has at his previous stops.
That’s 16 teams. They won’t all make the CFP. Some won’t sniff a national title for years. But fans of all those teams should feel free to dream this offseason, because any of them could wind up in this game next year.
The list wouldn’t have been nearly as long a decade ago. But the increased hope is the best byproduct of the major changes in the sport.
Even if Georgia still ends up winning it all in 2024.