Pete Thamel: Win over USC resets Michigan's College Football Playoff aspirations
The pivot from pocket passing senior Davis Warren to dual threat redshirt sophomore Alex Orji practically telegraphed Michigan’s game plan against USC. The Wolverines won, anyway.
Despite Orji attempting only 12 passes and throwing for just 32 yards, Michigan held off then-No. 11 USC and pocketed its first win over a ranked opponent this season. The Wolverines ran for 290 yards — in large part thanks to breakaway scampers of 53, 41 and then 63 yards — and sent the Trojans back west with a 27-24 defeat in hand.
“You would have thought that there’d been a little bit more resistance to the obvious game plan, right?” ESPN insider Pete Thamel said on the “College GameDay Podcast” Monday. “Like that was, I think, the thing that surprised me. As sound as D’Anton Lynn’s defense looked against LSU, I was just a little bit surprised that it was a defiant Big Ten, ‘We are going to run the ball down your throat,’ and they were able to run the ball down their throat.”
USC, as Thamel alluded to, allowed only rushing 117 yards in a statement-making and season-opening win over then-No. 13 LSU. The Tigers had just four runs of 10-plus yards in Las Vegas that night. One of those went for 15 or more yards, according to Pro Football Focus.
USC head coach Lincoln Riley’s defenses have been a talking point over the years, first at Oklahoma and now at USC. Last year, the Trojans ranked 13th-to-last in the country with 34.4 points per game allowed. They also were 119th in the FBS with 186.46 rushing yards allowed per game. A lot was made of USC’s transition to the Big Ten — more specifically, people questioned if the Trojans could match the physicality of the conference.
Thamel mentioned him above, but it’s worth pointing out that new Trojans defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn, who piloted a UCLA unit that was second nationally in run defense last year, has clearly improved the USC defense through three games. The Trojans actually gave up only five run plays of 10-plus yards at Michigan — it’s mainly just that three of them went for 40 or more yards.
The Wolverines did their best to wear on Lynn’s unit, and the final highlight-reel run, a 63-yard gain from graduate running back Kalel Mullings, fueled Michigan’s game-winning drive in The Big House.
Thamel brought up how Michigan was missing tight end Colston Loveland, who Thamel believes is “far and way” the Wolverines’ top receiving threat, with wideout Semaj Morgan emerging as perhaps Michigan’s second-best target. Morgan, though, had just three catches for six yards in the triumph against USC.
“[That] might be the stat that sums this game up the best, and Alex Orji the best,” Thamel said. “I feel like this game for Michigan is cathartic. Because they’re not trying to dig out of a hole for the rest of the season. It sort of resets their playoff aspirations, quite frankly, and gives them something they lacked early in the season, which is an identity — they just did not have one, and now it is clear and linear, how they are going to attempt to move the ball.
“I have some skepticism, because the [offensive] line is so green, that this is going to work consistently in that league. But give them credit, man, you got to win those big games, and that comes down as just an epic victory for them.”
A loss to USC would have been Michigan’s second at home to a ranked opponent in the month of September. The Wolverines’ margin of error the rest of the way would have been razor thin.
Then again, their margin of error with a run-dominant style of play is razor thin as well. But now they have a resume-building win under their belt with a handful of manageable Big Ten matchups ahead.