Mississippi State vs LSU point spread: Picking Bulldogs vs Tigers

No. 14 LSU (1-1) and Mississippi State (2-0) will kick off their SEC slate against one another on Saturday, and the Tigers have been slotted as 9.5-point betting favorites, according to Vegas Insider.

Ahead of Saturday’s matchup, advanced football statistics expert Parker Fleming joined On3’s Andy Staples as they made their picks for the game between the Tigers and Bulldogs.

“I’ve got this one just inside of a touchdown. I was but underwhelmed with Mississippi State last week,” Fleming told Staples. “Not from the overall performance because they started well, but they just couldn’t put away an Arizona team that I think is demonstrably better on the field.

“I’m definitely worried about Mississippi State’s offensive identity. Again, at the beginning of the season I’m a bit more conservative about these numbers, but Mississippi State is 81st in offensive EPA per play. 34th on the defensive side, we know head coach Zach Arnett has that said of the ball down, but I’m really going to need to see more out of this offense against an LSU defense.”

Through two games, the Bulldogs have more rushing yards (443) than they do passing (389) — something that simply wouldn’t be the case if the late Mike Leach were still running things. Arnett has strayed away from the Air Raid scheme Leach was famous for since taking over as head coach, but still has some ironing out to do with his more balanced attack.

Meanwhile for the Tigers, Fleming believes quarterback play is going to be the deciding factor on whether or not they escape Starkville with a win.

“[LSU] hasn’t played super great, and when I look at Jayden Daniels specifically, I’m worried about his ability to handle pressure,” Fleming said. “His pressure-to-sack ratio is 27.7 percent. Last year it was over 30. Once he senses pressure, he does not make good decisions and does take a lot of sacks.”

Through two games this season, Daniels has amassed 708 total yards on offense but has taken five sacks so far on the young season — four of which came during the Tigers’ 45-24 loss to Florida State. Similar pressure up front will be needed for the Bulldogs to finish the upset.

“If [Mississippi State] is going to keep this thing within [9.5 points] and cover, it’s going to involve making Jayden Daniels look very uncomfortable and minimizing its mistakes on offense,” Fleming said.

Kickoff from Starkville between the two SEC schools is set for Noon ET live on ESPN.