Evaluating which teams can still earn 1-seed in 2024 NCAA Tournament
The NCAA Tournament selection committee recently provided a glimpse at how they view the top teams in college basketball by rankings the Top 16 overall seeds and placing them in regions. The result is a better understanding of what matters to this group, and a grasp on which teams are still playing for the right to host their region.
A 1-seed is worth a lot in the NCAA Tournament, from landing weaker opponents in the early rounds to playing as the home team from start to finish and drawing the closest possible destination for traveling fans. Every team in the country is working toward that goal, but only a handful still have the opportunity.
Here is an updated look at which teams are close to securing their spot as a 1-seed in March, and which teams still have a runway to reach the remaining spot among the elite group this season.
Looks like a 1-seed lock
Three teams have separated themselves from the pack in college basketball this season. UConn and Purdue have gone back and forth over the past week making the case for the top-overall seed after upsets, but there is no question that in some order they will host regions along with Houston.
Purdue is now 9-3 in Q1, with no losses outside of that quadrant – a distinction UConn and Houston can share along with Florida and SDSU this season – and ranks No. 2 in the NET rankings.
UConn is currently 9-3 in Q1, leading the Big East while ranked No. 4 in the NET rankings to this point.
Houston is 9-3 in Q1 after picking up a big win over Iowa State this week, holding onto the No. 1 spot in the NET rankings.
These three teams are in very little danger of dropping off the 1-seed line regardless of conference tournament results based on how they have performed to this point in the season. The only thing needed to lock up the top overall seeds is a good close to the regular season.
Has the resume for 1-seed
Arizona, North Carolina, Tennessee
The second tier of potential 1-seed candidates has failed to capitalize on opportunities several times over the past few weeks, leaving the door open for another tier below them to hold out hope for a spot in the conversation once March arrives.
Arizona is viewed as the top team in this group and can hold off everyone else by winning out. A Pac-12 championship would go along way with a 7-3 record in Q1 and the No. 3 spot in the NET rankings.
North Carolina came out as the top 2-seed in the selection committee’s weekend reveal, with their 11-5 record in the first two quadrants and one loss in the bottom half.
Tennessee also comes up in this conversation thanks to a spot at No. 6 in the NET rankings and a 10-6 record in Q1 and Q2 so far.
Any of these teams going on a run would likely hold off the teams listed below them. However, the door has been left open although any of these three teams which struggles to close out the regular season would likely remain on the 2-line or high up among the 3-seed teams.
Conference title hopes
Alabama, Kansas, Iowa State, Duke, Auburn
This category of teams still has life as a potential 1-seed this season, but likely needs something to shake out the right way above them. Perhaps it is some combination of seeing Arizona lose the Pac-12 Tournament and knocking out another team in the tier above from the conference tournament in March.
Alabama might have the clearest path to the top with a 9-7 record in Q1 and Q2 with multiple opportunities to add on more. They are also ranked No. 5 in the NET rankings, above some of the teams ahead of them in the Top 16 reveal.
Kansas is already seeded above their spot in the computer numbers, but a solid resume with six Q1 wins has them in this conversation. Winning the Big 12 title would mean a serious run of big wins and make them a real contender for the best resume outside the top three.
Iowa State sits in a similar situation to Kansas but has actually ranked higher in the NET rankings with a better overall record to this point. They currently hold a 6-5 record in Q1.
Duke still has room to improve their resume in the regular season and would then have several more chances in the ACC Tournament before entering this conversation. The Blue Devils currently have six Q1 wins on their resume.
Auburn had a wide margin from the NET rankings to the Top 16 reveal, falling all the way onto the 4-line despite currently sitting at No. 7 in the computers. They only have two Q1 wins, but an SEC title run would provide multiple chances to add on and build a better resume.
Darkhorse resume
Creighton
Just one day after knocking off No. 1 UConn, who had just surpassed Purdue for the top spot in bracketology a couple days before, Creighton boasts one of the best resumes in college basketball.
The Blue Jays now have 12 wins in Q1 and Q2, rankings third in the nation behind only UConn and Purdue. They now have the type of dominant effort to spark conversation and rise in the NET rankings to No. 9 to back up the hype.
Plenty of other breaks would need to go their way, but Creighton simply cannot be ruled out following the performance they put up on Tuesday night.