It’s hard to win NCAA tournament pools – so here is some help

Trying to win NCAA tournament bracket pools can be maddening, and may be even more difficult than usual during this unpredictable college basketball season.

What’s the best way to predict winners? Lean on the highest-rated conferences, the best coaches, the most reliable point guards, the stingiest defenses? Or do you go chalk and stick with No. 1 seeds? Or perhaps choose teams with NBA-caliber talent who returned to campus for an extra year? Don’t dismiss those who choose the meanest mascots – that may be as good a strategy as any.

Spoiler alert: Winning bracket pools is hard.

But if you want your decisions rooted in strong historical trends to accurately predict national champions, check this out. Ken Pomeroy’s analytical web site – kenpom.com – is an invaluable treasure trove of data for college basketball fans/media/coaches/everybody. Following these trends will lead you to a short list of programs most likely to celebrate long into the night next month in Houston.

A special thanks to Will Warren, a University of Tennessee graduate and self-described statistics-obsessed individual who dove deep into data in a blog post. Warren posted the statistical trends on March 10, 2020, mere days before the COVID-19 pandemic forced the cancellation of the 2020 NCAA Tournament.

After I updated the trends to include Baylor’s pre-tournament kenpom.com stats from 2021 and Kansas’ run to Bill Self’s second national title last season, here’s the deal on who history tells us will win the 2023 NCAA Tournament.

+ Eighteen of the past 20 champions (exceptions were UConn in 2014 and Baylor in 2021) entered the tournament ranked in the top 40 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Who fits that criteria this season?

Thirteen teams: Houston, UCLA, Alabama, UConn, Texas, Purdue, Kansas, Saint Mary’s, Creighton, Memphis, Maryland, Texas A&M and FAU.

+ There’s more: Nine of the past 10 champions ranked in the top seven in offensive or defensive efficiency in the KenPom ratings. Among the teams above, who fits that criteria? This eliminates a lot of teams, leaving us with squads that have compiled a robust body of work.

Six teams: Houston, UCLA, Alabama, UConn, Purdue and Kansas.

+ Now this: 17 of the past 20 champions ranked in the top six in the overall KenPom ratings entering the tournament. Among the six above, who also fits that criteria?

Four teams: Houston, UCLA, Alabama and UConn.

+ So we’re left with teams from four different leagues – and none from the nation’s best conference, the Big 12. (You may be surprised that Danny Hurley’s UConn team is still standing in this group. But don’t let the Huskies’ No. 4 seed in the West Region deceive you; they are formidable.) But wait, there’s more: The No. 1 team in KenPom’s pre-tournament rankings has won just three times in 20 tournaments. Given that trend, let’s cross off Houston. Who’s left?

The big three: UCLA, Alabama and UConn.

Choose who you wish to win the national championship. But if it’s not one of the three teams above, you’ll be defying a handful of important historic statistical trends. Amid the dizzying flurry of upsets and madness, history points to UCLA, Alabama or UConn winning the title. Something to keep in mind while filling out your bracket.

Or you can always go back to the mascot strategy.