NCAA Tournament bubble: ESPN's Joe Lunardi compares UNC, Texas resumes before Selection Sunday

Colorado State and Boise State‘s respective runs to the Mountain West Conference Championship turned the NCAA Tournament bubble on its head late Friday night. The Rams are the higher seed, so they go into the field as the conference’s automatic qualifier, while the Broncos have become Joe Lunardi’s last team in.

That means Boise State has replaced North Carolina as the last team in, to the first team out. Texas also gets pushed back further, which makes their chances at an NCAA Tournament appearance that much more difficult. However, Lunardi isn’t confident that the bid-stealing is done just yet.

“Colorado State shrunk the bubble last night by a spot,” Lunardi said on ESPN College GameDay ahead of the SEC Tournament semifinal between Auburn and Tennessee. “It could be Memphis today, or VCU, or maybe even UC San Diego tonight. So if I’m North Carolina, I’m worried about a lack of quality wins against a great schedule.

“If I’m Texas, I’m worried about a lousy non-conference schedule, a bunch of terrific wins, but ultimately — and probably — too many losses. 15 losses for the Longhorns, and that has generally been the danger zone for the committee over the years.”

Memphis is the projected AAC auto-bid as the top seed in the conference tournament. However, if they’re upset before winning the tournament — someone will be pushed out of the field for them as they’re currently an AP ranked team. VCU is 26-6 as the A-10 regular season champion, while UC San Diego is 29-4 heading into the Big West Championship game on Saturday.

Both Texas and North Carolina fans will want to keep an eye on those matchups, and hope there aren’t any upsets along the way. Unfortunately for both the Tar Heels and Longhorns, however, is that they no longer control their own fate. Both teams lost in their conference’s respective quarterfinal matchup, and will have to wait and see where they land come Selection Sunday.

“We’ll be keeping an eye on all of these bubble teams,” Lunardi continued. “But North Carolina and Texas, at the moment, are simply hoping that the Colorado State vs. Boise State loser race falls out and frees up a spot between now and tomorrow.”

If that doesn’t happen, the Tar Heels and Longhorns could be on the outside looking in when the final bracket is released. Fans can watch the 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket be revealed on Sunday, March 16 at 6 p.m. ET live on ESPN.