NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch: Battle for the postseason heats up

The NCAA Tournament continues to inch closer and closer, with three weeks remaining in the regular season before conference tournaments begin. In our latest Field of 64 projections released on Monday, the bubble underwent some changes.

Multiple teams that were included on the wrong side of the bubble last week have flipped to the right side this week. From last week’s first four out and next four out, Florida, Texas, Louisiana Tech and Georgia Tech find themselves in the field this week.

On the other side of things, three of our four last teams in last week have moved to out of the field this week. Oregon is now one of the first four teams out, while Cal is dropped to next four out. Illinois-Chicago also drops just below the next four out.

Three weeks remain in the regular season, and a lot will surely change between now and the start of conference tournaments. Then, during conference tournaments, bids will be stolen and the bubble will be completely changed all over again. For now, here is how we view the bubble as we inch closer and closer to postseason college baseball.

NCAA Tournament Bubble: Last Four In

Texas, Troy, Florida, Georgia Tech

Texas picked up a huge series victory at Oklahoma over the weekend, and it has launched them onto the right side of the bubble this week. The Longhorns are 17-18 overall, 13-8 in Big 12 play and No. 58 in RPI. That RPI would ideally be higher, and it should be able to improve with remaining weekends vs. Oklahoma State (RPI 20), at UCF (RPI 32) and vs. Kansas (RPI 64). A series win over Oklahoma State would likely have Texas in and off the bubble, for now.

Troy has snuck into the field this week after sweeping Coastal Carolina on the road over the weekend. The Trojans are currently 31-14 overall and 14-7 in the Sun Belt, also No. 47 in RPI. Troy has massive weekends coming up, notably vs. Louisiana (RPI 51) and James Madison (RPI 30). They also host Alabama (RPI 14) in a midweek game next week. Troy needs to win down the stretch, and if they do they’re likely to be on the right side of the bubble.

Even after losing a series at Arkansas, Florida didn’t get swept and ends up moving into the field this week. The Gators are probably the hardest team to project, and they currently sit at 22-21 overall and 9-12 in SEC play. They are No. 22 in RPI though, a number that will keep them on the bubble barring a bad finish to the year. The Gators need to stay above .500, and their path is pretty simple. With weekends remaining vs. Tennessee, vs. Kentucky and at Georgia, they just need to win.

Georgia Tech has won four weekend series in a row, and they are the last team in this week after moving onto the tournament bubble last week. The Yellow Jackets are 27-15 overall, 11-10 in ACC play and No. 53 in RPI, and they have some tough weekends ahead. Finishing the year at Clemson, vs. Duke and at Florida State, Georgia Tech needs to steal at least one of those series and avoid being swept in any of them. It won’t be easy, but they certainly have a path to making the field if they stay hot.

First Four Out

TCU, Oregon, Charleston, Maryland

TCU, a preseason top five team, is right on the bubble. They are currently 26-16 overall, 10-14 in the Big 12 and No. 38 in RPI. Their remaining weekends are at Baylor (RPI 116), vs. New Mexico State (RPI 185), and vs. West Virginia (RPI 34). TCU needs to win the series at Baylor and sweep New Mexico State, at the least. Losing one of those games could be a killer for RPI. The season finale against West Virginia could wind up being a massive series for both teams, too.

Oregon was in last week, but drop out after losing their series to Oregon State. Simply put, Oregon’s RPI is seriously in the danger zone. Despite being 29-14 overall and 12-9 in the Pac-12, the Ducks are No. 59 in RPI, which isn’t going to be good enough to make it. With weekends left vs. Utah (RPI 61), at Washington (RPI 158), and vs. Washington State (RPI 178), Oregon’s margin for error is razor thin and they can’t afford man losses, if any.

Charleston has quietly been playing great baseball all year, and currently sit at 31-11 overall and 14-4 in the CAA. With RPI sitting at No. 50, they’ll need to improve that to get the nod. Charleston can’t afford a loss in their remaining weekends at Towson (RPI 260) or at Elon (RPI 186), but the series sandwiched between those two, vs. Northeastern (RPI 35), is a must-win as well. That series could end up being the difference for Charleston on the tournament bubble.

Maryland is right in the mix as well, but sit just outside right now. They are 28-17 overall and 8-10 in the Big Ten, sitting at No. 39 in RPI. But with a remaining weekend schedule at Rutgers (RPI 56), at Boston College (two games, RPI 54) and vs. Penn State (RPI 162), the Terrapins could definitely win their way in. Maryland also has a No. 12 non-conference RPI which could help, but they need to take care of business down the stretch regardless.

Next Four Out:

Ole Miss, Illinois, Cal, Xavier

Right now, Ole Miss’ RPI is the main reason they are still in the hunt. The Rebels are currently No. 27 in RPI despite a 23-20 overall record that includes 7-14 in the SEC. But right now, Ole Miss is in must-win territory. Their remaining weekends are at Auburn, vs. Texas A&M and at LSU. Winning the series against Auburn and LSU is non-negotiable. They’d also like to avoid being swept against Texas A&M, but that’s easier said than done.

Illinois almost got the nod as our automatic qualifier from the Big Ten this week, but we opted to go with Purdue instead. The Fighting Illini now find themselves on the bubble with a 25-15 overall record including 11-4 in the Big Ten and sitting No. 66 in RPI. As things currently stand, Illinois needs to win the Big Ten to get in. But with series remaining vs. Ohio State (RPI 65), vs. Iowa (RPI 98) and at Purdue (RPI 62), Illinois could sneak into at-large territory with a strong finish.

Cal is 26-16 overall, 12-12 in the Pac-12 and No. 60 in RPI. They swept Oregon State last week to get on the bubble, but now sit on the outside looking in. Working against Cal is their lack of RPI opportunities down the stretch. They finish at USC (RPI 95), vs. San Jose State (RPI 155) and vs. Washington (RPI 158). If they win both of those Pac-12 series and get to 16 conference wins, they’ll be in the discussion on the tournament bubble. But right now, they’re too far out.

Xavier is currently No. 36 in RPI, but 22-22 overall and 6-6 in the Big East. The RPI is right there, but a .500 team from the Big East, either overall or in league play, isn’t getting in. Finishing at Butler, at Georgetown and vs. Villanova gives Xavier a clear opportunity to add three more series wins, though, and they could put an extra stamp on their resume in midweek dates with Kentucky and Oklahoma.