NCAA Tournament bubble: Stock up, stock down, conference breakdown as Selection Sunday approaches

Just days away from Selection Sunday, conference tournament action throughout the week has continued to shape the bubble and leave teams with a more clear picture of what they must do in order to clinch an NCAA Tournament berth. Meanwhile, other teams now know their at-large chances are dead, meaning they must go all-in for an automatic bid.

Many teams have made the most of the final weeks of the regular season within the conference, but with so many upsets across the sport it has become difficult to separate many of the high-major teams from each other. Meanwhile, several mid-major teams on the bubble have already eliminated all doubt with a conference championship.

In the last days of the season, the line between bubble teams and teams considered ‘in the field’ begins to focus. It now appears the field will consist of between 44 and 46 teams above the bubble line, depending on the results of the AAC and A-10 conference tournaments.

For now, teams in the conversation for an 8-seed or better are generally considered safe, while teams just below on the 9-line are likely safe but cannot breathe a sigh of relief until they see the results of Wednesday and Thursday.

Read the most recent version of On3’s 2024 Bracketology here.

Here are the teams who have seen their stock go up and down, as well as a conference-by-conference breakdown of the teams still in the NCAA Tournament picture.

Stock Up

Pittsburgh (44)

Pittsburgh has made a late surge in the computer numbers with a good finish to the regular season. That success has brought them up into the conversation with other ACC bubble teams like Virginia and Wake Forest which went the other way late, leaving the conference tournament as an important data point.

The Panthers path to the NCAA Tournament goes through the ACC Tournament, while they are currently outside the field, the schedule provides them potential head-to-head meetings with other bubble teams and an opportunity to improve the resume. They will potentially start their week against the Demon Deacons on Thursday.

Texas A&M (47)

Texas A&M was headed the wrong direction late in the regular season and nearly slipped completely off the bubble. However, the overall strength of the SEC, paired with a three-game winning streak which included wins over bubblish teams Mississippi State and Ole Miss helped repave the path.

The Aggies get a rematch with Ole Miss to start the SEC Tournament on Thursday, following a blowout win on the road to close the regular season which led Chris Beard to offer refunds to fans. They would then fall into a game against Kentucky, which would provide a perfect opportunity to build the resume further and climb back into the field.

Nebraska (37)

Nebraska has solidified its spot in the NCAA Tournament field with a strong close to the regular season. Anything they accomplish in the Big Ten conference tournament now will only impact seeding and help build momentum for the next weekend.

The Cornhuskers hope now should be to pick up enough wins over the weekend to move from the 8-seed line up to the 7-seed line in order to maximize their chances of avoiding elite teams early in the NCAA Tournament.

Stock Down

Michigan State (24)

Michigan State has lacked the impressive resume or solid eye test many hoped for entering the season, but have continued to do just enough to remain a solid NCAA Tournament team. However, more late question mark losses have dragged them low enough to make it worth mentioning as Selection Sunday approaches.

The Spartans must win their first Big Ten conference tournament game against Minnesota to stay off the bubble, even if they are unable to pull off a second round upset against Purdue. Tom Izzo’s squad is likely to still make the field, but have shown little to build excitement for their postseason chances.

Oklahoma (42), TCU (40)

Oklahoma and TCU both suffered from the grueling Big 12 schedule late, seeing their computer numbers dip just enough to leave them sweating out the final week. Both teams share a 20-11 record. Oklahoma won just two of the final seven games in the regular season, while TCU won two of its last six games.

Both teams seem just high enough up the pecking order that a slip completely out of the field seems unlikely, but staying out of the First Four will be important. This duo will sort things out themselves on Wednesday when they face off in the Big 12 conference tournament.

Indiana State (29)

Indiana State has become one of the mid-major stories of the season and drawn in fans across college basketball to root them on. However, a Missouri Valley Conference tournament loss to Drake left their fate in the hands of the Selection Committee.

The Sycamores still have the resume of an NCAA Tournament team, despite their lack of a conference championship. They currently rank No. 29 in the NET (no team has ever missed the NCAA Tournament inside the Top 30) and boast a 5-5 record in the first two quadrants with one loss in the bottom two. That compares favorably, but the early timing of the conference tournament allowing other teams to create a fresher impression is the biggest worry.

Colorado State (36)

Colorado State was listed among the Mountain West locks just a few weeks ago, but as the teams faced off against each other in the regular season, someone was bound to slide. A string of four losses in five games at the end of February not only hurt the computer numbers, it dropped them down the pecking order of the conference standings.

The Rams will get a chance to likely solidify themselves and guarantee at least five bids for the Mountain West when they take on San Jose State on Wednesday. From there, they would take on Nevada for a chance to remove all doubt and help the seeding conversation on Sunday.

Conference breakdown

Note: With 34 teams listed as “in the field,” there are 14 teams “on the bubble” and four teams with “more to do” for the final 10 to 12 spots above the cut-line.

ACC
In the field: Duke (10), North Carolina (7), Clemson (26)
On the bubble: Pittsburgh (44), Virginia (51), Wake Forest (38)
More to do: N/A

Big 12
In the field: Baylor (14), BYU (12), Houston (1), Iowa State (9), Kansas (18), Texas (25), Texas Tech (30)
On the bubble: Oklahoma (42), TCU (40)
More to do: Cincinnati (43)

Big Ten
In the field: Illinois (15), Nebraska (37), Purdue (2), Wisconsin (22)
On the bubble: Michigan State (24), Northwestern (50)
More to do: N/A

SEC
In the field: Alabama (8), Auburn (6), Florida (35), Kentucky (19), Tennessee (5), South Carolina (49)
On the bubble: Mississippi State (41)
More to do: Texas A&M (47)

Pac-12
In the field: Arizona (4), Washington State (45)
On the bubble: Colorado (27)
More to do: Utah (52)

MWC
In the field: Boise State (23), Nevada (31), SDSU (20), Utah State (32)
On the bubble: Colorado State (36), New Mexico (28)
More to do: N/A

Big East
In the field: Creighton (11), Marquette (13), St. John’s (39), UConn (3)
On the bubble: Seton Hall (62), Villanova (33)
More to do: Providence (63)

Others
In the field: Dayton (21), FAU (34), Gonzaga (17), St. Mary’s (16)
On the bubble: Indiana State (29)
More to do: N/A