OK, about possible NCAA tournament expansion to 90 teams …

Mike Hugueninby:Mike Huguenin03/23/23

MikeHuguenin

We’ve told you about the amount of TV money at stake with possible NCAA tournament expansion. We’ve also explained some of the potential pitfalls of expanding the field. But what would an expanded NCAA tournament field actually look like?

Since we’re in the midst of the 2023 NCAA Tournament, let’s look at what a 72-team field (adding an extra First Four) and a 90-team field would’ve looked like this year.

First, a given: With more teams – either adding four or 22– there will be more at-large selections with losing conference records in the field.

This year, there were three teams with losing conference records among the at-large selections: Arkansas (which is still alive as a No. 9 seed), West Virginia (a first-round loser as a 9 seed) and Mississippi State (a First Four loser).

The field expanded to 64 teams in 1985. Since then, there have been 51 at-large selections with a losing conference record and 23 did not win a tourney game. Two made the Elite Eight: LSU in 1987 and Syracuse in 2018. Six others made the Sweet 16: Boston College in 1985, Purdue in 1999, Penn State in 2001, NC State in 2005, Iowa State in 2022 and Arkansas this year.

The record for most at-large selections with losing conference records is five, in 2018. The average in the past five tournaments (remember, there was no tourney in 2020) is 3.4.

The NCAA Tournament Selection Committee said the first four teams out this year were, in order, Oklahoma State, Rutgers, North Carolina and Clemson. Oklahoma State had a losing conference record; Rutgers was .500 in its league. But if the field had been 90 teams?

We looked at NET ranking, Quad 1 and 2 wins, Quad 3 and 4 losses, non-conference schedule and road success. We also eliminated teams below .500 overall because – well, no team below .500 deserves to play for a college title. That leads to best-guess additions of (listed alphabetically) Cincinnati, Colorado, Florida, Liberty, Michigan, New Mexico, North Texas, Oregon, Sam Houston State, Texas Tech, UAB, Utah, Vanderbilt, Villanova, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Washington State and Wisconsin.

Of those, Colorado, New Mexico, Texas Tech, Virginia Tech and Wisconsin were under .500 in their leagues. Four others (Florida, Oregon, Villanova and Wake Forest) were .500 in their leagues. And Michigan, Utah and Washington State were either one or two games over .500 overall.

As for the conference makeup of the extra 22: 16 would’ve come from the ACC (four), Big East (one), Big Ten (three), Big 12 (two), Pac-12 (four) and SEC (two). The other six: one from the AAC, one from the Atlantic Sun, two from Conference USA, one from the Mountain West and one from the WAC.

That means almost three-fourths of the “extra” teams would come from major conferences. The rich would get richer – literally. The more teams a conference sends to the NCAA men’s tournament, the more dollars it gets to disperse among its members.