NCAA Tournament Hosting Picture: Race tightens up entering final week of regular season

The NCAA Tournament is almost here for college baseball, and the race to host a regional remains a tight one. On Monday, we released our latest Field of 64 projections with some changes on the hosting line.

While we projected just one new host this week, there are plenty of changes within the top 16. Just one team – Indiana State (No. 11) – remains in the same spot they were in last week. Every other host from No. 1 to No. 16 is in a different spot than they were a week ago.

The lone new host in this week’s Field of 64 is UC Santa Barbara, who takes over as the No. 16 overall seed. They replace Duke, who was our No. 16 seed last week.

Here is a full breakdown of the current NCAA Tournament hosting race. There are more than 16 teams with a case to host a regional at this point, and this weekend’s results will play a massive role in the committee’s decisions.

Current top 8 seeds

Kentucky (1), Arkansas (2), North Carolina (3), Tennessee (4), Texas A&M (5), Clemson (6), Georgia (7), Wake Forest (8)

Kentucky is this week’s top overall seed, as they are 37-11 overall, 20-7 in the SEC and No. 1 in RPI. The Wildcats are in sole possession of first place in the SEC, and finish the regular season at home against Vanderbilt. Two spots behind Kentucky is North Carolina. UNC, 39-11 overall and 20-7 in the ACC, is currently No. 5 in RPI and our projected ACC champion. Both Kentucky and UNC are top eight locks at this point.

This weekend, Texas A&M hosts Arkansas in a pivotal weekend series. Texas A&M has lost two straight series, while Arkansas is coming off of a series win over Mississippi State. The winner of this series is likely to finish as a top three seed, with the other falling around the 5-6 range. Neither is likely to fall outside of the top eight.

Tennessee is also a strong contender for a top three overall seed. The Vols are 42-10 overall, 19-8 in the SEC and No. 6 in RPI. They host South Carolina over the weekend, and a series win would likely lock the Vols in as a top five seed. A couple of spots behind them is Georgia, who sits at 38-12 overall, 16-11 in the SEC and No. 2 in RPI. The Bulldogs just swept South Carolina and feel like a safe top eight host as of right now.

Finally, we have a pair of ACC teams rounding out the top eight. Clemson has been our projected ACC champion for most of the season, but even after falling behind UNC, the Tigers are a likely top eight host. They are 37-13 overall, 17-10 in the ACC, No. 7 in RPI and finish the season at home against Boston College. Wake Forest is also back in the top eight mix after sweeping Clemson over the weekend. The Demon Deacons aren’t a top eight lock, but they have a strong case at 36-16 overall, 15-12 in the ACC and No. 9 in RPI. Wake Forest is at NC State this weekend, and a series win could be enough to keep them in top eight range.

Other top 8 contenders

Oregon State (9), Florida State (10), Indiana State (11), Oklahoma (12), East Carolina (13)

Oregon State remains a very interesting team in the NCAA Tournament hosting race. The Beavers are currently 39-12 overall and 17-9 in the Pac-12, but No. 14 in RPI and in need of a series win this weekend at Arizona to win the Pac-12. If they do that, top eight is in range for Oregon State. If they lose that series, though, they might not be a lock to host. How much middle ground there is depends on what the other potential hosts do.

Florida State is 37-12 overall, 15-11 in the ACC and No. 8 in RPI. The Seminoles lost their series at Pitt over the weekend, but still sit in line to host and as a potential top eight seed. This weekend’s series against Georgia Tech won’t be easy, though, but winning it could vault FSU back into top eight range. Just behind them is Indiana State, who is No. 10 in RPI at 36-11 overall and 19-5 in the Missouri Valley. The Sycamores need help, and ending the regular season at Valparaiso (RPI 232) won’t do them any favors. Regardless, they’re a safe host.

Oklahoma is another team that feels like they could sneak into the top eight, with help. The Sooners have run away with the Big 12 with a 21-6 record in league play to go along with a 32-17 overall mark. They finish at Cincinnati this weekend, and a win could potentially have the Sooners fighting for the top eight. A series loss likely doesn’t take them out of the hosting race, though it would put them closer to the hosting bubble.

Then you have East Carolina. The Pirates just finished an 0-4 week after being swept at Tulane, but still sit at 37-13 overall, 16-8 in the AAC and No. 12 in RPI. ECU also has the No. 2 non-conference RPI and a series win over North Carolina, both potentially being big points of separation on the resume. ECU isn’t in danger of falling out of the hosting race, as of now. But if they go out and lose this weekend’s series against Rice (RPI 172), nothing is guaranteed.

Remaining projected hosts

Mississippi State (14), Virginia (15), UC Santa Barbara (16)

Mississippi State feels like they have too far to go to leap into the top eight discussion, but they are sitting pretty comfortably as a regional host in the NCAA Tournament. The Bulldogs are 33-18 overall, 15-12 in the SEC and No. 15 in RPI. They finish the regular season at home against Missouri, and should handle business there. Barring something unexpected, it would be surprising if Mississippi State isn’t hosting.

Virginia, on the other hand, is not quite as safe as a host. They got the nod for us in this week’s Field of 64 as the No. 15 seed, but the series loss to NC State was a tough one. Virginia is 37-14 overall, 15-12 in the ACC and No. 13 in RPI. They finish the regular season back at home against Virginia Tech, who is fighting for a spot in the field. Right now, Virginia is in as a host. But if they lose this series to the Hokies, they likely fall out.

Finally, UC Santa Barbara rounds out our hosts as the No. 16 seed. They are 35-12 overall, 20-4 in the Big West and No. 19 in RPI. They should win that league, though they do have two weekends remaining in the regular season as the Big West has no conference tournament. UCSB is at Cal State Northridge (RPI 94) this weekend and then at home against UC Riverside (RPI 266) next weekend. Losing a game in that final weekend could tank their RPI, and even sweeping it will lose you RPI points. But right now, UCSB looks like a hosting caliber club and gets the nod, though they are far from comfortable.

Other contenders to host in NCAA Tournament

NC State, Duke, Dallas Baptist, Oklahoma State, South Carolina, Alabama, UC Irvine

NC State’s series win over Virginia this past weekend has vaulted them into the hosting discussion. The Wolfpack are 29-19 overall, but 15-11 in the ACC and No. 20 in RPI. They finish the regular season hosting Wake Forest, giving them another prime opportunity to build their resume. Win that? NC State is going to host. Lose it, though, and they are likely to fall just short. Duke is right there too, and fell out after hosting last week. The Blue Devils are 34-16 overall, 15-12 in the ACC and No. 23 in RPI. They finish by hosting North Carolina though, which will be a very difficult weekend.

Dallas Baptist and Oklahoma State both feel like teams that could sneak back into the NCAA Tournament hosting picture. Dallas Baptist is 38-12, 15-6 in CUSA and No. 21 in RPI. If they win that league (they are currently tied with Louisiana Tech), they could definitely be in the mix for one of the final hosting spots. Oklahoma State is 34-16 17-9 in the Big 12 and No. 17 in RPI. They are at Houston this weekend, and a series win, or ideally a sweep, will have them as a legitimate contender.

South Carolina suffered a setback over the weekend by getting swept against Georgia. The Gamecocks would have been hosting this week if they won that series, but instead sit out and in a tough spot to get back in the mix. South Carolina is at Tennessee this weekend, which won’t be easy. But if you find a way to win that, you’re right back in the discussion.

The final two teams in contention are Alabama and UC Irvine. Alabama is 32-19, 12-15 in the SEC and No. 11 in RPI. If the Crimson Tide sweep Auburn on the road this weekend, they’ll be at 15-15 in the SEC. It might take a couple of wins in Hoover, but they’d be at least in the hosting mix. UC Irvine is 38-10, 18-6 in the Big West and No. 24 in RPI. They can’t afford any losses, finishing at Cal State Fullerton (RPI 251) and vs. Cal State Northridge (RPI 94). But if they win out and get a lot of help in front of them, UC Irvine could potentially slide back into the discussion.