2024 NCAA Tournament bracket picks for first weekend: Contenders, upsets, and more

Filling out brackets is a time-honored tradition in college basketball. After the Selection Committee revealed the path to a Final Four for all 68 teams on Sunday, the race began to predict all the upsets, blowouts and more over the next several weeks.

While no bracket is ever perfect, maximizing the chances to predict all the results of the first weekend takes more time than anyone has to spend. Meanwhile, the co-worker or family member who picks based on the mascots or colors will likely win anyway.

Here are my best projections for the chaos of the First Four, Round of 64, and Round of 32 as March Madness sweeps the nation.

First Four (Dayton)

16 Howard vs. 16 Wagner
16 Montana State vs. 16 Grambling State
10 Boise State vs. 10 Colorado
10 Virginia vs. 10 Colorado State

The 16-seed picks go to the higher-ranked teams plain and simple. Meanwhile, Colorado gets the nod over Boise State assuming health for the Buffaloes. Colorado State takes care of business against a Virginia team many question the resume of entering the week.

Round of 64

East (Boston)

1 UConn vs. 16 Stetson
8 FAU vs. 9 Northwestern
5 SDSU vs. 12 UAB
4 Auburn vs. 13 Yale
6 BYU vs. 11 Duquesne
3 Illinois vs. 14 Morehead State
7 Washington State vs. 10 Drake
2 Iowa State vs. 15 South Dakota State

A lot of chalk in the opening weekend of the East region, with the only lower seeded teams I’m taking coming in the closest-seeded matchups. FAU struggled at times against a weak AAC schedule, while Northwestern was dealing with the more difficult Big Ten. Drake closed the season strong while Washington State stumbling across losing three of the last six.

West (Los Angeles)

1 North Carolina vs. 16 Howard/Wagner
8 Mississippi State vs. 9 Michigan State
5 St. Mary’s vs. 12 Grand Canyon
4 Alabama vs. 13 Charleston
6 Clemson vs. 11 New Mexico
3 Baylor vs. 14 Colgate
7 Dayton vs. 10 Nevada
2 Arizona vs. 15 Long Beach State

New Mexico becomes the biggest projected upset so far, although an argument can be made that they were simply under-seeded. Michigan State over Mississippi State is as close to a toss-up as the field has to offer, and Nevada will look to prove it was under-seeded as well.

South (Dallas)

1 Houston vs. 16 Longwood
8 Nebraska vs. 9 Texas A&M
5 Wisconsin vs. 12 James Madison
4 Duke vs. 13 Vermont
6 Texas Tech vs. 11 NC State
3 Kentucky vs. 14 Oakland
7 Florida vs. 10 Boise State/Colorado
2 Marquette vs. 15 Western Kentucky

Full chalk in the South region, where the top teams all look to have the upper-hand on their opponent. This does not mean there will be no upsets, only that chaos is sure to ensure (history seems to tell us).

Midwest (Detroit)

1 Purdue vs. 16 Montana State/Grambling State
8 Utah State vs. 9 TCU
5 Gonzaga vs. 12 McNeese State
4 Kansas vs. 13 Samford
6 South Carolina vs. 11 Oregon
3 Creighton vs. 14 Akron
7 Texas vs. 10 Virginia/Colorado State
2 Tennessee vs. 15 St. Peter’s

The Midwest sees two big upsets materialize in the Round of 64. McNeese State is the mid-major team I committed to picking over any 5-seed with what Will Wade and Shahada Wells have done so far. Meanwhile, Oregon looked like a completely different team in the Pac-12 Tournament with a healthy N’Faly Dante.

Round of 32

East (Boston)

1 UConn vs. 9 Northwestern
5 SDSU vs. 4 Auburn
6 BYU vs. 3 Illinois
10 Drake vs. 2 Iowa State

The top seeds all prevail here as it sets up two blockbuster matchups in the Sweet 16 round. That is where the East region will get really interesting.

West (Los Angeles)

1 North Carolina vs. 9 Michigan State
5 St. Mary’s vs. 4 Alabama
11 New Mexico vs. 3 Baylor
10 Nevada vs. 2 Arizona

New Mexico continues its Cinderella run with an upset over Baylor, a team which has seen ups and downs throughout the season and runs into a hot lineup with something to prove. St. Mary’s also topples an Alabama team which just cannot figure out the defensive end.

South (Dallas)

1 Houston vs. 8 Nebraska
5 Wisconsin vs. 4 Duke
6 Texas Tech vs. 3 Kentucky
7 Florida vs. 2 Marquette

Wisconsin over Duke comes as both teams show their high point and low point as a group. Either team looks capable of a deep run or early exit at different times. Florida over Marquette also points to a team which looks the part of a world-beater when they are on, but could crash out as the Gators keep tabs on the Tyler Kolek injury.

Midwest (Detroit)

1 Purdue vs. 8 Utah State
12 McNeese State vs. 4 Kansas
11 Oregon vs. 3 Creighton
7 Texas vs. 2 Tennessee

After starting as the region of upsets, the Midwest goes back to chalk with the top-four seeds all advancing to a potential Sweet 16 which would create fascinating matchups on both sides.