NCAA Tournament Projections: ESPN releases new Bracketology for final week before March

With one week left until March, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi shared a new update to Bracketology.

The biggest shift to the bracket today is on the right side of the field for the NCAA Tournament. With Alabama losing on the road mid-week last week and Duke winning in emphatic fashion in a non-conference game at a neutral site, the East and Midwest Regions swapped with the Blue Devils again becoming the second while the Crimson Tide became the third of the No. 1 seeds respectively.

The SEC is then still atop the count for seeds per conference as they’re back up to 13 berths with Oklahoma being back in the field. All the other leagues then maintained the same number of teams in with the order remaining as the Big Ten, Big 12, Big East, ACC, Mountain West, and the WCC.

Here’s the latest projection from Lunardi for the 2025 NCAA Tournament in the final week of February:

ESPN Bracketology: On the Bubble

Last Four Byes: West Virginia, Texas, San Diego State, Ohio State
Last Four In: Nebraska, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Wake Forest
First Four Out: North Carolina, Indiana, SMU, Xavier
Next Four Out: Boise State, Georgia, George Mason, Villanova

The bubble saw a lot of movement for the bracket after this weekend’s action through Monday.

The Big Ten is a point in this update with Ohio State falling onto the bubble after losing three straight and Nebraska sliding on it after dropping three of four while Indiana moved up to the Second Team Out after their upset of Purdue. The SEC and ACC are as well with Vanderbilt off, Texas among the Last Four Byes, Oklahoma and Arkansas hanging on in the Last Four In, and Georgia falling to the Next Four Out while Wake is the Last Team In, North Carolina is the First Team Out, and SMU is also among the First Four Out. It’s worth noting too that the A-10 lost their at-large with George Mason losing to VCU, which is now the league’s auto bid.

South Region – Atlanta

Auburn again remained the No. 1 overall seed in the bracket at ESPN after extending their lead, in conference and nationally, by moving to 25-2 overall and 13-1 in the SEC. The Tigers will now come down stretch with four more quality games to end the next two weeks, including their final three opponents that are all in the Top-20 of the AP Poll.

The South Region then had the most movement within it of any of the four for this update. Michigan State, the top team in the Big Ten, is up to the No. 2, Oregon is up to a No. 5 after a comeback road win in overtime at Wisconsin, Kansas is up to a No. 6 after correcting things in their last two wins, and Vanderbilt is up off the bubble at a No. 10 after another home win over a ranked opponent in Ole Miss. Arizona is then down to a No. 4 after losing at home to BYU to drop three of four while Ohio State is down to the bubble at a No. 11 after three straight losses and dropping four of five.

1. Auburn vs. 16. Southern/American
8. Creighton vs. 9. Gonzaga
5. Oregon vs. 12. Drake
4. Arizona vs. 13. Akron

6. Kansas vs. 11. Ohio State
3. Kentucky vs. 14. James Madison
7. Memphis vs. 10. Vanderbilt
2. Michigan State vs. 15. Robert Morris

East Region – Newark

Duke reclaimed the second of the No. 1 seeds for ESPN after a statement win at 110-67 over Illinois in Madison Square Garden. The Blue Devils put on a clinic, especially offensively, in the 43-point blowout in to move to 24-3 overall before returning to conference play in the ACC.

That moved the East Region back up in the bracket. Within it, Saint Mary’s moved up to a No. 6 after sweeping Gonzaga in the WCC while New Mexico is up to a No. 8 atop the Mountain West. Then, Louisville moved down to a No. 7 despite five straight wins, UConn moved down to a No. 9 after their second-worst loss of the season to St. John’s in dropping three of five, and Texas moved down as part of the bubble as a No. 11 by being the first team to lose to South Carolina in the SEC with the Longhorns dropping four of five.

1. Duke vs. 16. Marist/Southeast Missouri State
8. New Mexico vs. 9. Connecticut
5. Missouri vs. 12. McNeese State
4. Michigan vs. 13. Lipscomb

6. Saint Mary’s vs. 11. Texas
3. Texas Tech vs. 14. Utah Valley
7. Louisville vs. 10. West Virginia
2. Tennessee vs. 15. Central Connecticut State

Midwest Region – Indianapolis

Alabama slid one spot among the No. 1 seeds for ESPN after splitting their week in a pair of matchups within the Top-20. The Tide lost a second straight in a 110-98 after at No. 15 Missouri before returning home to win at 96-83 over No. 17 Kentucky in Tuscaloosa. That has ‘Bama at 22-5 overall and tied for second place in the Southeastern Conference at 11-3

Five other teams then all trended downward in the Midwest. Wisconsin fell to a No. 3 after blowing a 17-point lead at home in overtime, Marquette moved down to a No. 6 after their worst loss of the season at Villanova, Mississippi State moved to a No. 7 after losing at Oklahoma following two ranked wins, and Illinois dropped to after that beatdown they took from the Blue Devils. Nebraska also slid on the bubble as losers in three of four.

1. Alabama vs. 16. Bryant
8. Illinois vs. 9. Baylor
5. Maryland vs. 12. Yale
4. St. John’s vs. 13. High Point

6. Marquette vs. 11. Nebraska/Oklahoma
3. Wisconsin vs. 14. Chattanooga
7. Mississippi State vs. 10. San Diego State
2. Wisconsin vs. 15. Montana

West Region – San Francisco

Florida played well early and late to get out of Baton Rouge with a 79-65 win over LSU. That earned them their sixth straight win and ninth in the last ten to be 24-3 overall, and tied for second in the SEC at 11-3, as the final of the No. 1 seeds in the bracket still at ESPN.

The West then saw No. 5 Clemson move up after a fourth straight win and tenth in their last eleven, No. 8 BYU boost after four straight wins with their last two being upsets over ranked opponents in Kansas and at Arizona, and No. 10 VCU shift up as well as the top team in the Atlantic-10. Ole Miss is then down to a No. 7 after losing at Vandy in dropping two straight.

1. Florida vs. 16. Omaha
8. BYU vs. 9. Utah State
5. Clemson vs. 12. UC San Diego
4. Michigan vs. 13. Lipscomb

6. UCLA vs. 11. Arkansas/Wake Forest
3. Texas A&M vs. 14. Towson
7. Ole Miss vs. 10. VCU
2. Iowa State vs. 15. Norfolk State