NCAA Tournament Projections: ESPN releases updated Bracketology after multiple top-ranked upsets

After another weekend of notable results in college basketball, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has updated his tournament projections again for Bracketology.

The SEC remained the conference with the most teams in the field with thirteen but with five somewhere on the bubble, including one just on the outside as the First Team Out. The Big Ten still has double-digits as well with ten while the Big 12 has eight, the ACC and Big East have four apiece, the Mountain West has three, and the WCC has a pair.

With that, here’s Lunardi’s latest in regards to the 2025 NCAA Tournament:

ESPN Bracketology: On the Bubble

Last Four Byes: Oklahoma, Nebraska, Texas, Vanderbilt
Last Four In: Georgia, San Diego State, Wake Forest, BYU
First Four Out: Arkansas, VCU, North Carolina, SMU
Next Four Out: Pittsburgh, Xavier, UC San Diego, Boise State

The SEC is the most notable aspect of the bubble at the moment for Lunardi. Their conference has four teams on the brink out of the eight total just on the inside of the bubble with Arkansas then as the First Team Out of the field. That leaves a lot to determine for the league for these teams that are in the back half of its standings.

Beyond that, BYU is the Last Team in the tournament, which Lunardi wrote about, while Wake Forest, North Carolina, SMU, and Pittsburgh are squarely on the bubble, with three of those being out as of now, in this bracket from the ACC.

South Region – Atlanta

Auburn (21-2. 9-1), much like they did this week in the AP Poll, remained the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament despite their first loss in conference and just second one overall. Still, there’s little shame in losing a top-six matchup to Florida with the Tigers having two of the best losses in the country while still having 11 other Quad I wins.

The South Region then had the most movement for teams of the four regions in the field. Michigan State and St. John’s improved as its No. 3 and No. 4 seed respectively while Creighton at No. 6 and Nebraska at No. 10 did as well with them all coming off big wins or stretches. Missouri (No. 7), Oregon (No. 8), Georgia (No. 11), and Lipscomb (No. 14 – AQ from Atlantic Sun) then all slipped.

1. Auburn vs. 16. Little Rock/American
8. Oregon vs. 9. Baylor
5. Memphis vs. 12. UC Irvine
4. St. John’s vs. 13. High Point

6. Creighton vs. 11. Georgia/San Diego State
3. Michigan State vs. 14. Lipscomb
7. Missouri vs. 10. Nebraska
2. Houston vs. 15. Central Connecticut

Midwest Region – Indianapolis

Alabama (20-3. 9-1), the No. 2 team in the nation, remained the second of the No. 1 seeds with the Tide surging as of now in the SEC. They’ve won six straight, nine of ten in conference, and fourteen of their last fifteen over the last two months to solidify themselves as one of the top teams again in their league and nationally – which they needed to do ahead of a wild, highly-ranked stretch over their final eight.

The Midwest also has No. 2 Purdue, No. 3 Iowa State, No. 6 Illinois, and No. 7 Mississippi State in their region. As for shifts, it then only had downward moves with losses and inconsistency for Kansas at No. 4 and Marquette at No. 5 along with Cleveland State at No. 15.

1. Alabama vs. 16. Southern
8. Saint Mary’s vs. 9. New Mexico
5. Marquette vs. 12. George Mason
4. Kansas vs. 13. Arizona State

6. Illinois vs. 11. Vanderbilt
3. Iowa State vs. 14. Northern Colorado
7. Mississippi State vs. 10. Penn State
2. Purdue vs. 15. Cleveland State

East Region – Newark

Duke (20-3, 12-1) remained a No. 1 seed as well following their first loss in conference and third overall on their season. After losing their sixteen-game win streak, though, the Blue Devils are still ahead in their league as they’ll continue to be favored, and favored heavily in some instances, over their final eight games in the ACC.

The East also includes teams like No. 2 Florida, No. 3 Texas Tech, No. 4 Kentucky, and No. 7 Louisville. The two shifts in this region were then with Michigan up to a No. 5 with four straight wins and then with UConn down to a No. 8 after being at .500 over their last eight.

1. Duke vs. 16. Merrimack/Omaha
8. Connecticut vs. 9. West Virginia
5. Michigan vs. 12. Yale
4. Kentucky vs. 13. Samford

6. Maryland vs. 11. Wake Forest/BYU
3. Texas Tech vs. 14. Jacksonville State
7. Louisville vs. 10. Texas
2. Florida vs. 15. Towson

West Region – San Francisco

Tennessee (20-4, 7-4) is the final of the No. 1 seeds for the NCAA Tournament with them also contending out of the SEC. They’ve now won three straight, including two against ranked opponents at home, with several rated matchups left to continue to improve their resumé.

Teams like No. 2 Texas A&M, No. 4 Wisconsin, No. 5 Ole Miss, No. 8 Gonzaga, and No. 9 Ohio State are holding their seeds from there in the West. No. 3 Arizona and No. 7 Clemson are then improving respectively as the current second-placed teams out of the Big 12 and ACC while UCLA, despite having won seven straight, slipped to a No. 6.

1. Tennessee vs. 16. Bryant
8. Gonzaga vs. 9. Ohio State
5. Ole Miss vs. 12. McNeese State
4. Wisconsin vs. 13. Akron

6. UCLA vs. 11. Drake
3. Arizona vs. 14. Utah Valley
7. Clemson vs. 10. Oklahoma
2. Texas A&M vs. 15. Norfolk State