NCAA Tournament Projections: ESPN releases updated Bracketology after upset-filled weekend

ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has released an updated look at his NCAA Tournament Projections after a wild weekend of college basketball, with plenty of upsets.

The college football season is now over, which means even more attention is turning to college hoops. The added attention comes at a good time after No. 2 Iowa State, No. 6 Tennessee, No. 7 Marquette, No. 14 UConn and No. 19 Gonzaga all lost to unranked teams over the weekend.

With that in mind, here’s how Lunardi projects the 2025 NCAA Tournament in his latest Bracketology.

ESPN Bracketology: On the Bubble

The latest NCAA Tournament Projections from Joe Lunardi include an updated look at the NCAA Tournament bubble.

There was some movement with bubble teams following games this weekend. Texas is now on the wrong side of the bubble, per Lunardi. Meanwhile Vanderbilt went from one of the first four teams out to being projected to get a bye. Here’s the full bubble update:

Last Four Byes: , Oklahoma, North Carolina, Vanderbilt, San Diego State.
Last Four In: Pittsburgh, Nebraska, UCF, Indiana
First Four Out: Cincinnati, Texas, SMU, Ohio State
Next Four Out: Iowa, Xavier, VCU, Penn State

South Region – Atlanta

Joe Lunardi still has Auburn as the No. 1 overall seed in his latest NCAA Tournament Projections. The Tigers escaped with a 70-68 win at Georgia on Saturday to maintain their top seed.

As for the No. 2 seed in the South, Lunardi has Purdue in that spot after the Boilermakers won at Washington and at Oregon this past week. Kentucky is now projected to be the No. 3 seed in the South, with Houston No. 4.

1. Auburn vs. 16. Morehead State/Colgate
8. Utah State vs. 9. UCLA
5. Texas A&M vs. 12. McNeese
4. Houston vs. 13. Samford

6. Arizona vs. 11. Pittsburgh/Nebraska
3. Kentucky vs. 14. Northern Colorado
7. Missouri vs. 10. North Carolina
2. Purdue vs. 15. Cleveland State

East Region – Newark

As for the East Region, Lunardi still has Duke as the No. 1 seed in his NCAA Tournament Projections. The Blue Devils pounded Boston College on Saturday for their 12th straight win. Duke is led by freshman sensation Cooper Flagg, who is arguably the top player in college basketball. He just keeps getting better and better.

Tennessee is now the No. 2 seed in the East, falling from its No. 1 seed spot after losing to Vanderbilt over the weekend. Michigan State is the 3 seed in the East in Lunardi’s latest Bracketology, with Mississippi State as the 4.

1. Duke vs. 16. Quinnipiac
8. Baylor vs. 9. Maryland
5. Michigan vs. 12. George Mason
4. Mississippi State vs. 13. Yale

6. UConn vs. 11. UC Irvine
3. Michigan State vs. 14. Akron
7. Clemson vs. 10. San Diego State
2. Tennessee vs. 15. Southern

Midwest Region – Indianapolis

In the Midwest Region, Alabama is now the 1 seed in Lunardi’s latest NCAA Tournament Projections. The Crimson Tide were previously a No. 2 seed but moved up after an impressive win at Kentucky over the weekend. Alabama did lose at home to Ole Miss last week, but the win at Rupp Arena is a huge resume booster.

Elsewhere in the Midwest Region, Lunardi has Kansas as the No. 2 seed, with Marquette as the 3 and Illinois as the 4. Kansas moved up a seed line, while Marquette dropped a seed line from Lunardi’s previous NCAA Tournament Projections.

1. Alabama vs. 16. Omaha
8. Texas Tech vs. 9. Saint Mary’s
5. Memphis vs. 12. Bradley
4. Illinois vs. 13. Middle Tennessee

6. Louisville vs. 11. UCF/Indiana
3. Marquette vs. 14. Charleston
7. Gonzaga vs. 10. Oklahoma
2. Kansas vs. 15. UNC Asheville

West Region – San Francisco

Iowa State is projected to be the No. 1 seed in the West Region, per Lunardi, despite the Cyclones being upset by West Virginia over the weekend. Even with the loss, Iowa State is 15-2 on the year and clearly one of the best teams in the country.

The No. 2 seed in the West in the latest NCAA Tournament Projections is Florida. The Gators have been impressive all year, thanks in part to strong guard play. Oregon is the No. 3 seed in the West, followed by No. 4 seed Ole Miss.

1. Iowa State vs. 16. Long Island/Howard
8. Georgia vs. 9. Creighton
5. Wisconsin vs. 12. Lipscomb
4. Ole Miss vs. 13. South Alabama

6. West Virginia vs. 11. New Mexico
3. Oregon vs. 14. Utah Valley
7. St. John’s vs. 10. Vanderbilt
2. Florida vs. 15. Bryant