NCAA Tournament Projections: ESPN releases updated Bracketology as March nears

With this weekend marking three weeks until Selection Sunday, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has released his latest edition of Bracketology.

Following this week’s conference games and the last update on Tuesday, the overall bracket, as well as the bubble, had several shifts in this updated projection for the 2025 NCAA Tournament on Friday.

That includes a big one for the Southeastern Conference as one of their teams slipped out, which gives them a dozen now in the field with five playing on the bubble. All the other leagues maintained the same number of teams besides the Atlantic-10 with George Mason as the auto-bid with VCU the second-to-last team in the field.

With that, here’s how Lunardi set the bracket this morning just less than a month now until madness:

ESPN Bracketology: On the Bubble

Last Four Byes: Texas, West Virginia, San Diego State, Nebraska
Last Four In: Vanderbilt, Arkansas, VCU, Wake Forest
First Four Out: Oklahoma, SMU, Georgia, North Carolina
Next Four Out: Xavier, Indiana, Boise State, Pittsburgh

The spotlight on the bubble right now in Bracketology continues to be on its impact on the SEC. Texas remained on the Last Four Byes by being off mid-week, while Vanderbilt and Arkansas are hanging on in the top two spots of the Last Four In. However, Oklahoma, having lost five straight and 6-of-7 by an average margin of 17, is now the First Team Out, while Georgia is also among the First Four Out as losers of three straight, four of five, and eight of their last ten.

Meanwhile, the ACC also has effects from this with Wake Forest as the Last Team In while SMU and North Carolina are among the First Four Out. Multiple other teams in general moved up on, if not off of, the bubble too with San Diego State, Nebraska, BYU, and Boise State.

South Region – Atlanta

Auburn once again remained the No. 1 overall seed for Lunardi in Bracketology with a record of 24-2 overall and 12-1 in the SEC. That’s after actually surviving a near upset earlier this week in a 67-60 win over Arkansas in The Jungle. It was the first of a three-game home stretch for the Tigers to further secure themselves in the conference standings as well as in the actual bracket in March.

The South Region saw the least movement with No. 10 Nebraska being the most significant as the Cornhuskers are now on the bubble following a 17-point road loss this week at Penn State. Then, through moves up for No. 6 Louisville and No. 11 Arkansas, a bluegrass-centric portion is set up with the ‘Hogs, led by John Calipari, having a chance to play the Cardinals with that winner having their second respective chances at playing No. 3 Kentucky.

1. Auburn vs. 16. Omaha/Southeast Missouri State
8. Gonzaga vs. 9. New Mexico
5. Marquette vs. 12. McNeese State
4. Michigan State vs. 13. High Point

6. Louisville vs. 11. Arkansas/VCU
3. Kentucky vs. 14. Chattanooga
7. Memphis vs. 10. Nebraska
2. Houston vs. 15. Montana

Midwest Region – Indianapolis

Alabama remained the second of the No. 1 seeds for Bracketology despite the Tide getting choppy over the last week. ‘Bama suffered that nine-point loss to Auburn last weekend and then a dozen-point one at Missouri this week to fall to 21-5 overall and 10-3 in the SEC with their final five games all set to be against opponents in the Top-25, if not the Top-10.

As for the rest of the Midwest, Kansas is then the story with the Jayhawks sliding down to a No. 7 seed as a .500 team since the start of December as they’ve lost two straight with a seven-point loss to Utah and a historic defeat by 34 at BYU. Then, in the Big Ten, Wisconsin is up to a No. 2 seed following a win over Illinois while Ohio State is down to a No. 10 seed after a 21-point loss to Northwestern on Thursday.

1. Alabama vs. 16. Bryant
8. Oregon vs. 9. Baylor
5. Maryland vs. 12. Drake
4. St. John’s vs. 13. Jacksonville State

6. Ole Miss vs. 11. UC San Diego
3. Arizona vs. 14. Utah Valley
7. Kansas vs. 10. Ohio State
2. Wisconsin vs. 15. Norfolk State

East Region – Newark

Duke, the third of the No. 1 seeds still for Lunardi, had much of this week off after an 80-62 win at Virginia on Monday. Now, at 23-3 overall and 15-1 in the ACC, the Blue Devils will play what’s likely to be their toughest remaining game until they’re in the actual bracket with a non-conference game against Illinois in Madison Square Garden on Saturday.

As for moves in the East Region, Texas Tech went up to a No. 3 seed despite a three-point upset at TCU this week with Texas and Wake Forest trending upward on the bubble. Purdue then went down to a No. 4 seed after a third-straight loss with Vandy moving that way as well on that bubble.

1. Duke vs. 16. Southern/American
8. Creighton vs. 9. Texas
5. Missouri vs. 12. George Mason
4. Purdue vs. 13. Akron

6. UCLA vs. 11. Vanderbilt/Wake Forest
3. Texas Tech vs. 14. Towson
7. Saint Mary’s vs. 10. West Virginia
2. Tennessee vs. 15. Central Connecticut State

West Region – San Francisco

Florida finished off the No. 1 seeds in Bracketology as one of the hotter teams in the country still. The Gators have won five straight and eight of nine, by an average margin of 16.4 points, to be 23-3 overall and 10-3 in a tie for second place in the SEC.

Mississippi State winning by 16 over Texas A&M in Starkville on Tuesday had an effect on this region with the Aggies down to a No. 3 seed and the Bulldogs up to a No. 5. The West also saw Illinois go down to a No. 10 having lost two straight by double digits, BYU go down despite winning three consecutive games, and San Diego State go up to a No. 10 after winning three straight and seven of eight in the Mountain West.

1. Florida vs. 16. Quinnipiac
8. Connecticut vs. 9. Utah State
5. Mississippi State vs. 12. Yale
4. Michigan vs. 13. Lipscomb

6. Clemson vs. 11. BYU
3. Texas A&M vs. 14. South Alabama
7. Illinois vs. 10. San Diego State
2. Iowa State vs. 15. Cleveland State