NCAA Tournament Projections: ESPN releases updated Bracketology after chaotic start to conference play

As the calendar flips to February, the NCAA Tournament picture is sure to come into focus. But a chaotic start to conference play already led to a shakeup in ESPN’s latest Bracketology from Joe Lunardi.

The top seeds remained the same from the last update. Auburn is the No. 1 overall team in the projected field while Duke, Alabama and Iowa State round out the top four. But there was some movement over the last week amid a slew of upsets as league action continues to heat up.

Just a few days remain in January, which means the sprint toward conference tournaments are on the horizon. Here’s where ESPN’s latest Bracketology stands.

ESPN Bracketology: On the Bubble

For teams on the bubble, the next few weeks are going to be crucial. Big wins can help improve their chances of making it to the NCAA Tournament, but key losses could spell the end of their March Madness hopes.

Texas and Ohio State remain firmly on the bubble after moving up to Joe Lunardi’s Last Four In the Field of 68. Their hopes of making the bracket are improving, but the bubble looks to be jam-packed after the chaotic start to conference play.

Last Four Byes: Oklahoma, Georgia, San Diego State, Pitt
Last Four In: Ohio State, Texas, North Carolina, UCF
First Four Out: Xavier, Indiana, Arizona State, SMU
Next Four Out: Nebraska, Wake Forest, Cincinnati, Dayton

ESPN Bracketology: South Region – Atlanta

Still the No. 1 team in the country for the first time in program history, Auburn is also Joe Lunardi’s No. 1 overall seed. The Tigers survived quite a scare last time out, though, in a defensive battle against Tennessee.

Purdue remained the No. 2 seed, but Houston is slowly moving up the seed list at No. 3. The Cougars are 8-0 to start Big 12 play and could be a team to watch through February and into the conference tournament.

1. Auburn vs. 16. American/Morehead State
8. Creighton vs. 9. Baylor
5. Wisconsin vs. 12. McNeese State
4. Texas A&M vs. 13. Arkansas State

6. Missouri vs. 11. New Mexico
3. Houston vs. 14. Cleveland State
7. Clemson vs. 10. Georgia
2. Purdue vs. 15. Southern

East Region – Newark

Still the No. 1 seed in the East Region, Duke is coming off a thrilling victory Monday night over NC State. The Blue Devils went back-and-forth with the Wolf Pack before pulling away in the final minutes to stay unbeaten in ACC play.

Florida moved into the East Region in Joe Lunardi’s latest Bracketology amid a fast start to SEC play. The Gators put together a dominant showing last time out against Georgia en route to a resounding 89-59 win over the Bulldogs and former UF coach Mike White.

1. Duke vs. 16. Marist
8. UConn vs. 9. Saint Mary’s
5. Michigan vs. 12. Yale
4. Mississippi State vs. 13. Akron

6. Texas Tech vs. 11. VCU
3. Michigan State vs. 14. Jacksonville
7. St. John’s vs. 10. Pitt
2. Florida vs. 15. Norfolk State

Midwest Region – Indianapolis

Another impressive season from Alabama has the Crimson Tide on the 1-seed line once again in Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology. Nate Oats’ group is now 17-3 overall and 6-1 in SEC play after a win over LSU earlier this week, staying right in the thick of the national championship race.

Some shuffling occurred farther down the bracket, though. Kansas dropped to a No. 3 seed after a 2OT loss to Houston at Phog Allen Fieldhouse this week, dropping the Jayhawks to 14-5 overall and opening the door for Marquette to move up to the 2-seed line.

1. Alabama vs. 16. William & Mary
8. Utah State vs. 9. West Virginia
5. Memphis vs. 12. Bradley
4. Illinois vs. 13. Samford

6. Ole Miss vs. 11. Ohio State/North Carolina
3. Kansas vs. 14. Northern Colorado
7. UCLA vs. 10. Oklahoma
2. Marquette vs. 15. UNC Asheville

West Region – San Francisco

An overtime loss to Arizona dropped Iowa State to 17-3 overall and 7-2 in Big 12 play on Monday. Still, the Cyclones have been dominant this season and remain a No. 1 seed in Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology.

Arizona is now on the way up the seed line, though, moving into the West Region as a No. 5 seed – up from No. 6 last week. The Wildcats are now 8-1 in Big 12 play after a 6-5 record in the non-conference, meaning their arrow is pointing up amid a three-game win streak.

1. Iowa State vs. 16. Nebraska Omaha/Long Island
8. Gonzaga vs. 9. Vanderbilt
5. Arizona vs. 12. Texas/UCF
4. Oregon vs. 13. Middle Tennessee State

6. Louisville vs. 11. UC Irvine
3. Kentucky vs. 14. Utah Valley
7. Maryland vs. 10. San Diego State
2. Tennessee vs. 15. Bryant