NCAA Tournament Projections: ESPN releases updated Bracketology entering conference tournament week

Conference tournaments are continuing into today, including the power conference ones starting this afternoon. That led to the latest update to Bracketology last night from ESPN’s Joe Lunardi.

Two more automatic bids were earned from mid-major tournaments on Monday. Wofford went on to win the SoCon Tournament over Furman while Troy clinched the Sun Belt Tournament over Arkansas State. Both are now projected as solidified teams into the field with those auto berths with no other conferences adding or losing any teams per the breakdown of the leagues.

Here’s the latest projection from ESPN of the 2025 NCAA Tournament:

ESPN Bracketology: On the Bubble

Last Four Byes: Utah State, Arkansas, Baylor, San Diego State
Last Four In: Oklahoma, Indiana, Xavier, Ohio State
First Four Out: Boise State, North Carolina, Texas, Colorado State
Next Four Out: Dayton, Wake Forest, Villanova, UC Irvine

Much of the bubble just reshuffled in this projection from ESPN. That was specifically so among the eight in the Last Four Byes and Last Four In with five teams trending up and three trending down. That affected the Big Ten the most with Indiana sliding downward while Ohio State is now the Last Team In.

The First Four Out and Next Four Out did much of the same as the First Four Out remained exactly the same with Boise State, North Carolina, Texas, and Colorado State. The Next Four Out, though, saw Dayton move past Wake Forest while Villanova and UC Irvine replaced Nebraska and Cincinnati.

South Region – Atlanta

Auburn (27-4, 15-3) has remained the No. 1 overall seed coming into Champ Week despite losing two straight coming out of conference play in the SEC. A good showing through the SEC Tournament in Nashville, or at least a win on Friday to make it to the semifinals on Saturday, as the No. 1 seed there, now with the SEC Coach of the Year, SEC Player of the Year, and three other all-conference honorees, should solidify that by Selection Sunday.

The South Region had two other teams saw themselves drop two seed lines in this bracket with Missouri down to a No. 7 and Vanderbilt down to a No. 11 after the Tigers lost four of their final five and the Commodores lost two straight to end the regular season. UC San Diego was then slightly down at No. 12 as a projected conference champion ahead of the Big West Tournament.

1. Auburn vs. 16. Southern/American
8. Memphis vs. 9. West Virginia
5. Oregon vs. 12. UC San Diego
4. Clemson vs. 13. Akron

6. Illinois vs. 11. Vanderbilt
3. Texas A&M vs. 14. *Troy
7. Missouri vs. 10. Baylor
2. Michigan State vs. 15. Central Connecticut State

East Region – Newark

Duke (28-3, 19-1) didn’t move as the second of the No. 1 seeds at ESPN. That’s ahead of their appearance as the No. 1 seed in the ACC Tournament after yesterday when Cooper Flagg won ACC Player of the Year and Rookie of the Year while the Blue Devils had several others receiving votes for all-conference recognition.

The lower seeds saw the movement in the East Region, including two others from the Southeastern Conference, with Georgia up a line to a No. 9 having won four straight to end the regular season and San Diego State up to a bye as a No. 10. Arkansas is then down to a No. 11 as part of that shift of the byes on the bubble.

1. Duke vs. 16. Quinnipiac/*SIU Edwardsville
8. Connecticut vs. 9. Georgia
5. BYU vs. 12. Liberty
4. Maryland vs. 13. *High Point

6. Michigan vs. 11. Arkansas
3. Iowa State vs. 14. Northern Colorado
7. Marquette vs. 10. San Diego State
2. Tennessee vs. 15. Robert Morris

Midwest Region – Indianapolis

Houston (27-4) also held as the third of the No. 1 seeds per this from ESPN. They can now set themselves there this week in the Big 12 Tournament in Kansas City with, as of yesterday, the Big 12 Coach of the Year, the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year with two honors on the All-Defensive Team, and four honorees total on the All Big-12 Teams.

The Midwest Region then had three teams moving upward a seed line with Saint Mary’s to a No. 5 ahead of the WCC Championship tonight, Kansas to a No. 6 after a big win to end the regular season, and Drake up to a No. 10 as the champion out of the Missouri Valley. UNC Wilmington is now back projected in the field as well ahead of the CAA Championship tonight after Towson was upset in the semifinals by Delaware.

1. Houston vs. 16. *Omaha
8. Mississippi State vs. 9. Creighton 
5. Saint Mary’s vs. 12. McNeese State
4. Wisconsin vs. 13. Yale

6. Kansas vs. 11. Oklahoma/Indiana
3. St. John’s vs. 14. UNC Wilmington
7. Louisville vs. 10. *Drake
2. Alabama vs. 15. *Wofford

West Region – San Francisco

Florida (27-4, 14-4) is then still the final of the No. 1 seeds at ESPN behind only Auburn in the SEC. Still, the Gators, who earned two recognitions respectively on the All-SEC First and Third Teams, will be holding off others trying to get on that one-line like Alabama and Tennessee in their own league this week in Music City as well as potentially Michigan State from the Big Ten.

The West Region didn’t have any teams moving seed lines in this update from Lunardi. Several moved into this region, though, with seven new teams in, namely with No. 3 Kentucky, No. 4 Purdue, No. 5 Arizona, and No. 6 UCLA.

1. Florida vs. 16. Norfolk State
8. Gonzaga vs. 9. New Mexico
5. Arizona vs. 12. Xavier/Ohio State
4. Purdue vs. 13. *Lipscomb

6. UCLA vs. 11. VCU
3. Kentucky vs. 14. Utah Valley
7. Ole Miss vs. 10. Utah State
2. Texas Tech vs. 15. Bryant