NCAA Tournament Projections: ESPN releases updated Bracketology with big changes after initial rankings by Selection Committee

Following this weekend, including the release of the initial rankings from the NCAA Selection Committee, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has released the latest edition of Bracketology.

Lunardi let it be known that that ranking from the committee is now directly impacting his projection of the bracket at ESPN. That then affected the field, especially the sixteen teams who were listed as top-four seeds in each of the regionals by the NCAA.

With that, the SEC is still in the lead as far as conferences with 13 berths despite having five on the bubble with only one of those on the outside. The Big Ten and Big 12 remained as well in second with ten and third with eight respectively. From there, the Big East and ACC have four apiece, the Mountain West has a trio, and the WCC has a pair too.

Here’s how Lunardi projected the bracket for the 2025 NCAA Tournament for ESPN this morning based on the latest results and ratings with there being less than a month now until Selection Sunday:

ESPN Bracketology: On the Bubble

Last Four Byes: Texas, West Virginia, BYU, Vanderbilt
Last Four In: San Diego State, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Wake Forest
First Four Out: VCU, Georgia, SMU, North Carolina
Next Four Out: Indiana, Xavier, Kansas State, UC Irvine

The bubble continues to be a major focus right now for the Southeastern Conference. The SEC has four teams in the field of the eight spots on the right side of the cutoff with Texas improving their standing with a big win over Kentucky while Oklahoma and Arkansas continue to be right on the edge with respective losses to LSU and Texas A&M. Georgia is also now on the outside looking in as losers of eight of their last ten in conference play.

The ACC is then next as far as impact with Wake Forest as the Last Team in with SMU and North Carolina right outside the field in the First Four Out.

South Region – Atlanta

The Tigers again remained at No. 1 for ESPN, and are on track to eventually be that come the official selection of the field, after winning the historic conference and in-state matchup between No. 1 Auburn and No. 2 Alabama in Tuscaloosa. They won 94-85 in a wire-to-wire win to move to 23-2 overall and into sole possession of first place in the SEC

The South then had the most movement out of any of the regions with almost all of those being positive. Iowa State, Wisconsin, St. John’s from the Big East, and Maryland all moved up from two through five while Texas did too at No. 10 as well as No. 11 UC San Diego out of the Big West and No. 14 Towson from the CAA. No. 6 Ole then fell after being swept in-state while Arkansas did as well in reaching double-digit losses.

1. Auburn vs. 16. Omaha/Southeast Missouri State
8. Gonzaga vs. 9. Utah State
5. Maryland vs. 12. Arkansas/Wake Forest
4. St. John’s vs. 13. Arkansas State

6. Ole Miss vs. 11. UC San Diego
3. Wisconsin vs. 14. Towson
7. Saint Mary’s vs. 10. Texas
2. Iowa State vs. 15. Bryant

Midwest Region – Indianapolis

Alabama was on the losing end of that top-two matchup at home this weekend, which ended their seven-game win streak. Still, at 21-4 overall and 10-2 in conference for second place in the SEC behind only the Tigers, the Tide are still in motion to be a No. 1 seed in the bracket per Lunardi at ESPN.

The Midwest has depth from some of their seeds in the upper half with Houston, Kentucky, Michigan, Illinois, and Baylor. As for movement, No. 5 Missouri and No. 7 Mississippi State went up after road wins in conference while No. 11 George Mason did too out of the A-10. No. 8 Creighton then went down after a loss in The Mecca that had a big impact on the standings atop the Big East.

1. Alabama vs. 16. Quinnipiac
8. Creighton vs. 9. Baylor
5. Missouri vs. 12. Yale
4. Michigan vs. 13. High Point

6. Illinois vs. 11. George Mason
3. Kentucky vs. 14. UNC Greensboro
7. Mississippi State vs. 10. Nebraska
2. Houston vs. 15. Cleveland State

East Region – Newark

Duke won two games in three days, a 36-point blowout of Stanford on Saturday and an 18-point road win at Virginia on Monday, to improve to 23-3 overall and 15-1 in the ACC. The Blue Devils have gotten right back to it after their lone loss in league play to remain as a No. 1 seed with them now set to play their toughest remaining game this weekend with a non-conference matchup against Illinois in New York.

The East is also packed with several teams with the likes of Tennessee, Arizona, Michigan State, UCLA, UConn, Ohio State, and Louisville. It also includes two other down-trending brands in Kansas, who lost again this weekend at Utah to be just 10-8 since the start of December, as well as Oklahoma, who gave one up at home to LSU to have lost four straight, five of six, and nine of their dozen so far as part of the SEC.

1. Duke vs. 16. Southern/American
8. Connecticut vs. 9. Ohio State
5. Kansas vs. 12. McNeese State
4. Michigan State vs. 13. Lipscomb

6. UCLA vs. 11. San Diego State/Oklahoma
3. Arizona vs. 14. Utah Valley
7. Louisville vs. 10. West Virginia
2. Tennessee vs. 15. Central Connecticut State

West Region – San Francisco

Florida is the final of the No. 1 seeds at ESPN after winning their fourth straight to move to 22-3 and 9-3 in the SEC. The Gators can keep that streak going with three easier games upcoming in conference before closing the regular season with a trio of ranked opponents, including two among the highest projected seeds in the field.

The West also had much movement coming into this week’s update. No. 6 Clemson and No. 11 BYU moved up after respective conference wins. No. 3 Purdue, No. 4 Texas Tech, No. 7 Memphis out of the AAC, No. 11 Vanderbilt, and No. 12 Drake from the Missouri Valley were then all down after outright losses or a close call mid-week when it came to the Red Raiders

1. Florida vs. 16. Norfolk State
8. Oregon vs. 9. New Mexico
5. Marquette vs. 12. Drake
4. Texas Tech vs. 13. Akron

6. Clemson vs. 11. Vanderbilt
3. Purdue vs. 14. Jacksonville State
7. Memphis vs. 10. BYU
2. Texas A&M vs. 15. Montana