NCAA Tournament Projections: ESPN updates Bracketology heading into Champ Week

The first berths in the bracket have started to be earned with all of college basketball now in or entering the postseason. With that, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi updated his latest projection of the 2025 NCAA Tournament with less than a week until Selection Sunday.

The final games of the regular season were this weekend over Saturday and Sunday with those results giving every team, either already in the field or on the bubble, an idea of where they stand going into their conference tournaments over the next few days. That’s after five tickets have already been punched for the field in the A-Sun (Lipscomb), Big South (High Point), Missouri Valley (Drake), Ohio Valley (SIU Edwardsville), and Summit League (Omaha – *By Default)

Coming into Champ Week, the SEC had their record-setting total add another projected berth in the bracket, thanks to Oklahoma, with 13 again now in this model. The Big Ten (10), Big 12 (8), Big East (5), ACC (3), and WCC (2) then kept the same number of berths while the Mountain West lost one to be down to four with Boise State as the Last Team Out while Utah State, San Diego State, and Colorado State all remain close on that bubble.

Here’s now the newest edition of Bracketology from Lunardi on Sunday night:

ESPN Bracketology: On the Bubble

Last Four Byes: Baylor, Utah State, Arkansas, Indiana
Last Four In: San Diego State, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Xavier
First Four Out: Boise State, North Carolina, Texas, Colorado State
Next Four Out: Nebraska, Wake Forest, Cincinnati, Dayton

With six days until the bracket is revealed, these sixteen teams are trying to hold on to or move into one of the eight that are in the field according to ESPN. That applies most to the Last Four In with San Diego State, Ohio State and then Oklahoma and Xavier being the Last Teams In.

Meanwhile, North Carolina out of the ACC and Texas out of the SEC are holding firm in trying to get in from being second and third among the First Four Out. Teams like Cincinnati and Wake Forest will also be trying to make a push out of the Big 12 and ACC as well as Nebraska, despite them not making the Big Ten Tournament, from even further back with all three being in the Next Four Out.

South Region – Atlanta

Auburn ended the regular season at 27-4 overall and 15-3 in the SEC after closing with their only losing streak of the year after dropping a pair to Texas A&M and Alabama. Still, the Tigers remain “the runaway No. 1 NCAA Tournament seed” in the bracket for ESPN considering the strength of their record with who all they beat during “arguably the greatest regular season” in a decade per Lunardi.

The South Region only had one team trending down with Memphis down to a No. 8 as the projected auto-bid from the American. Then, from there, Kentucky is back up to a No. 3 with another ranked win in their finale, UCLA slightly up as a No. 6 with their biggest margin of victory in over a month, Marquette up to a No. 7 despite losing each of their last two, and Drake (30-3, 17-3) up to a No. 11 after winning the Missouri Valley. Troy and Furman are then in as the new projected autos respectively out of the Sun Belt and SoCon.

1. Auburn vs. 16. SIU Edwardsville/American
8. Memphis vs. 9. West Virginia
5. Oregon vs. 12. Liberty
4. Clemson vs. 13. Lipscomb

6. UCLA vs. 11. Drake
3. Kentucky vs. 14. Troy
7. Marquette vs. 10. Baylor
2. Michigan State vs. 15. Furman

East Region – Newark

Duke stayed as the second of the No. 1 seeds for ESPN after officially clinching the regular season in the ACC with a 13-point win in Chapel Hill. That had the Blue Devils finishing at 28-3 (19-1) overall, having won eight straight and twenty-four of twenty-five, coming into the ACC Tournament with at least a more realistic chance of getting to that top overall seed in the bracket after how this past week went for Auburn.

The East Region only had one team trending up with BYU up to a No. 5 as the Cougars won eight straight to end the season as a top seed out of the Big 12. Then, of teams that fell, Wisconsin is down to a No. 4 seed after losing their finale to Penn State in losing three of their last five, Michigan is down to a No. 6 after losing three straight and four of six to close, and Louisville was down to a No. 7 despite winning nine straight and nineteen of twenty to finish second in the ACC. UC San Diego was also down as the No. 12 as the projected auto from the Big West.

1. Duke vs. 16. Quinnipiac/Southern
8. Connecticut vs. 9. Vanderbilt
5. BYU vs. 12. UC San Diego
4. Wisconsin vs. 13. High Point

6. Michigan vs. 11. VCU
3. Iowa State vs. 14. Northern Colorado
7. Louisville vs. 10. Georgia
2. Tennessee vs. 15. Central Connecticut State

Midwest Region – Indianapolis

Houston also remained the third of the No. 1 seeds at ESPN after finishing at 27-4 (19-1) overall, with three losses coming to top-two seeds and three coming in overtime, as the top team in the Big 12. The Cougars have now won ten in a row and twenty-three of twenty-four coming into the postseason with them able to solidify a top seed this week in Kansas City.

The Midwest Region had Kansas at No. 7, Arkansas at No. 10, and Oklahoma as a possibility at No. 12 all trending up, with the Jayhawks set to play the Razorbacks in the first round, after all three won important games to end the regular season, especially the Sooners who did so in a play-in game in Austin. Creighton was then down to a No. 9 while Arizona at No. 5 and Ohio State as the other option at No. 12 were both down after respective losses on the road with the Wildcats dropping five of eight and the Buckeyes losing six of ten through February.

1. Houston vs. 16. Omaha
8. Mississippi State vs. 9. Creighton 
5. Arizona vs. 12. Ohio State/Oklahoma
4. Purdue vs. 13. Akron

6. Saint Mary’s vs. 11. Indiana
3. St. John’s vs. 14. Towson
7. Kansas vs. 10. Arkansas
2. Alabama vs. 15. Robert Morris

West Region – San Francisco

Florida was then the last of the No. 1 seeds again in the bracket for ESPN after closing the regular season at 27-4 (14-4) overall as the second-placed team in the SEC. The Gators will now have to play well this week in Nashville, though, to stay ahead of the likes of other options on the two-line like Tennessee and Alabama in their own conference as well as Michigan State or Texas Tech.

The West Region then had the least amount of movement amidst their seeding. Illinois was up to a No. 6 seed after closing on a three-game win streak, including two top-twenty upsets, while Gonzaga was up to a No. 8 seed ahead of their semifinal tonight in the WCC Tournament. Missouri then slid a bit as a No. 5 in losing four of five to close while Yale was down to a No. 13 seed still as the projected auto out of the Ivy League.

1. Florida  vs. 16. Norfolk State
8. Gonzaga vs. 9. New Mexico
5. Missouri vs. 12. McNeese State
4. Maryland vs. 13. Yale

6. Illinois vs. 11. San Diego State/Xavier
3. Texas A&M vs. 14. Utah Valley
7. Ole Miss vs. 10. Utah State
2. Texas Tech vs. 15. Bryant