NCAA Tournament Projections: Field of 64 takes shape at midseason mark

We’ve made it halfway through college baseball’s regular season, and it’s time to take a look ahead to the postseason. While there is plenty of baseball left to be played and RPI is far from set, On3’s midseason Field of 64 projections are officially here.

The NCAA Tournament is dominated by the SEC and ACC, with the two conferences hosting 12 of the 16 regionals. The SEC has nine hosts and 12 bids, while the ACC has three hosts and 11 bids. Following behind them is the Big 12, with one host and seven overall bids.

Notably, preseason No. 1 Texas A&M is not in the projected field. The Aggies have struggled in the first year of the Michael Earley era, and will need an enormous surge in the second half to make it into the Field of 64.

The full NCAA Tournament field will be announced on Monday, May 26. Regionals begin on Friday, May 30 and the College World Series will get underway on Friday, June 13.

Field of 64: Bubble

Last Four In: UC Santa Barbara, Florida, Iowa, Baylor
First Four Out: Cal, Mississippi State, Michigan, Hawaii
Next Four Out: UCF, Georgia Southern, South Carolina, South Florida

The three SEC teams are the headliner on the bubble right now. Florida, Mississippi State and South Carolina are all 1-8 in league play. The Gators, of course, controversially made last year’s NCAA Tournament despite a 28-26 overall record at the end of the regular season, but went 13-17 in SEC play. Getting to 12 SEC wins feels like the minimum for at-large consideration, and how many teams do so will have a strong impact on the rest of the bubble.

*denotes automatic qualifier for conference champions

Knoxville Regional

1. Tennessee (1)*
2. Virginia Tech
3. UTRGV*
4. Columbia*

Tennessee currently sits at No. 3 in RPI, but they are our clear-cut top overall seed. The Vols are 26-2 overall and 8-1 in the SEC, and are the only team in the country with double-digit Q1 wins at 10-1. It would take a second half disaster for the Vols to fall out of the top eight overall seeds.

Conway Regional

1. Coastal Carolina (16)*
2. Georgia Tech
3. Iowa
4. ETSU*

The Conway Regional features the No. 16 and No. 17 teams in our race for the final hosting bid in our midseason Field of 64. Coastal Carolina, 20-8 (6-3 in Sun Belt), is currently No. 6 in RPI and No. 4 in non-conference RPI, with a non-conference strength of schedule at No. 12. Georgia Tech will be in the discussion if they keep up their hot start, but come in as a 2-seed for now.

Athens Regional

1. Georgia (2)
2. TCU
3. Northeastern*
4. Navy*

If Tennessee does happen to stumble, Georgia will be right there in contention for the top overall seed. The Bulldogs are 28-2 overall and 8-1 in the SEC, and have gone 20-1 in non-conference games with a non-conference RPI of No. 7. TCU is an intriguing team out of the Big 12, but for now they come in as a 2-seed.

Manhattan Regional

1. Kansas State (15)*
2. Wake Forest
3. Florida
4. Southern Illinois*

Maybe the most unexpected host at this point in the season, we saw last year how much the committee values conference champions. If Kansas State wins the Big 12 and their RPI holds around the top 20, they’ll likely be hosting. Wake Forest joins them, and the Demon Deacons could host themselves. But it’ll take a rebound after a down couple of weeks.

Fayetteville Regional

1. Arkansas (3)
2. Duke
3. Xavier*
4. Central Connecticut*

Arkansas is another team that will almost undoubtedly be hosting as a top five seed. The Razorbacks are the No. 3 overall seed in our initial Field of 64. The SEC is a gauntlet, but Arkansas looks poised to make it through. They get Duke as a 2-seed, and the Blue Devils have had some ups and downs but should be in the tournament as a dangerous 2.

Auburn Regional

1. Auburn (14)
2. Dallas Baptist*
3. Kansas
4. Grand Canyon*

Auburn has stormed back this season and become a legitimate contender to host, and that’s where they fall right now. While some tough SEC weekends await, the Tigers are in a good position to withstand some of that as of now. They could be in a position late in the year where they’re rooting for other teams to lose, and Dallas Baptist is one of the teams that could fight for a bid to host.

Tallahassee Regional

1. Florida State (4)*
2. West Virginia
3. High Point*
4. Florida A&M*

The ACC could turn into a race between Florida State and Clemson, and both teams are safe bets to be top eight hosts if that’s the case. The Seminoles are currently 23-4 and 7-2 in the ACC, and if they do win the league, they could easily be a top three overall seed when it’s all said and done.

Chapel Hill Regional

1. North Carolina (13)
2. Vanderbilt
3. USC
4. Oral Roberts*

North Carolina has had some ups and downs, but at 21-7 overall, 6-6 in the ACC, No. 3 in non-conference RPI and currently No. 17 in RPI, the Tar Heels are still in position to host. They won’t have a ton of margin for error, but UNC undoubtedly is in the discussion. Vanderbilt could still slide into the hosting bubble too, but it would take a pretty remarkable effort through the SEC.

Tuscaloosa Regional

1. Alabama (5)
2. Louisville
3. Austin Peay*
4. Binghamton*

Alabama has been absolutely dominant this season, and they’re rewarded with a top five overall seed in our midseason Field of 64. The Crimson Tide, like many others, will need to withstand the rest of SEC play. But right now, they look to be one of those top-tier teams in the league and sit No. 7 in RPI, No. 11 in non-conference RPI and are 25-4 overall.

Oxford Regional

1. Ole Miss (12)
2. Southern Miss
3. Virginia
4. Fairfield*

Like so many teams around them, how Ole Miss fares down the stretch will determine their fate. But they are currently 21-6, 6-3 in the SEC, No. 8 in non-conference RPI and RPI overall. The Rebels are in a great position today, regardless, and could push for a top eight seed if everything goes well down the stretch. Virginia, the preseason No. 2 team, falls here as a 3-seed.

Clemson Regional

1. Clemson (6)
2. Troy
3. East Carolina*
4. Fordham*

Even if Clemson doesn’t win the ACC, they’re in a great position to host as a top eight overall seed right now. With a 26-5 overall record, No. 5 RPI and No. 2 non-conference RPI, the Tigers sit in a great position at midseason. This regional would be an intriguing one, with a strong Troy team as the 2-seed and East Carolina as the 3-seed.

Baton Rouge Regional

1. LSU (11)
2. Oregon
3. NC State
4. Tennessee Tech*

LSU is surely in the top eight mix, but in our midseason Field of 64 they slot in at No. 11 overall. While 26-3 overall and 7-2 in the SEC, the Tigers’ non-conference strength of schedule (No. 251) could hold them back in the top eight discussion. Oregon could push to host as well, but the Ducks have fallen all the way out of the top 60 in RPI and will need to recover quickly to get back in the mix.

Los Angeles Regional

1. UCLA (7)*
2. Arizona State
3. UC Santa Barbara
4. Nevada*

UCLA looks to be back. The Bruins look to be the favorite in the Big Ten at this point, sitting at 22-5 overall and 10-2 in league play. They also sit No. 1 in non-conference RPI and No. 8 non-conference strnegth of schedule, which is definitely a top eight caliber resume. UC Santa Barbara would have been hosting two weeks ago, but have now fallen all the way down to a 3-seed and will suffer from a lot of RPI anchors in the Big West.

Norman Regional

1. Oklahoma (10)
2. Arizona
3. UTSA
4. Bowling Green*

Oklahoma has enjoyed a ton of success in their first SEC season, currently 22-5 overall and 5-4 in SEC play. The Sooners also sit top ten in non-conference RPI as of today, but of course, they’ll need to win some more SEC series down the stretch to solidify their hosting bid and push fo rthe top eight. Arizona, if they can win the Big 12, will be another hosting contender.

Austin Regional

1. Texas (8)
2. Stanford
3. Baylor
4. Wright State*

Texas is another team enjoying success in the first year in their new conference. The Longhorns are 23-3 overall and 8-1 in the SEC, currently No. 10 in RPI. Their No. 47 non-conference RPI could hold them back in the top eight race, but we expect the overall body of work to be enough. They are greeted with Stanford, a team that looked like a potential host two weeks ago.

Corvallis Regional

1. Oregon State (9)
2. UC Irvine*
3. Kentucky
4. Gonzaga*

Oregon State hasn’t been slowed by their lack of a conference, sitting 20-6 on the year and No. 23 in RPI as an independent. The Beavers have an extremely small margin of error, but if they wind own the stretch, they’re likely to be hosting. UC Irvine is their 2-seed, and they’ve surged as of late with a 21-5 overall record, 11-1 Big West record, and No. 28 RPI. They can’t afford to stumble, though, which is why they are behind in the hosting race for now.