NCAA Tournament: Seven potential first-round upsets

The play-in games are done and the field of 64 is set. The 2024 NCAA Tournament starts on Thursday. What better time to discuss upsets?

Here are seven potential first-round upsets.

(5) St. Mary’s vs. (12) Grand Canyon

West Region – 10:05 PM on Friday

Grand Canyon will have the best player on the floor, so Tyon Grant-Foster is a good place to start. The 6-foot-7 wing averaged 19.8 points. 1.7 steals, and 1.4 blocks this season. Grand Canyon plays an aggressive style of defense while taking high-percentage shots and making their free throws. Head Coach Bryce Drew will mostly play five guys, with a short three-man bench.

Saint Mary’s started the season by dropping five of their first eight games. They ended their season winning 18 of their last 19, including a West Coast Conference Championship. The Gaels have five players averaging in double figures with three guys coming off the bench to play between ten and 15 minutes a night. Aidan Mahaney will get a lot of the headlines, but Augustas Marciulionis has continued to improve all season. Saint Mary’s will run their stuff and get the shot they want. They group rebound and they play stifling defense.

Can Grand Canyon get the shots they want against the Saint Mary’s defense?

(6) Clemson vs. (11) New Mexico

West Region – 3:10 PM on Friday

New Mexico is coached by Richard Pitino, son of Hall of Fame head coach Rick Pitino. He has four players averaging in double figures, each of them could play at most places in the country. Jaelen House, son of former NBA guard Eddie House, is the leading scorer and the team’s best perimeter defender. Jamal Mashburn, son of former NBA forward Jamal Mashburn, averaged over 14 per game. Donovan Dent is one of the top passing point guards in the country. And forward JT Toppin had one of the best seasons of any freshman nationally. 

Clemson, led by head coach Brad Brownell, averaged 77.4 points this season. They will end possessions on the defensive boards, knock down a good number of threes, and make their free throws. Senior forward PJ Hall is the head of the snake, and super senior guard Joe Girard is the Tigers’ top perimeter threat. Ian Shieffelin averaged 9.5 rebounds per game.

Will New Mexico be able to play at the fast pace they prefer? Will Clemson be able to get stops and make enough shots?

(7) Colorado State vs. (10) Texas

Midwest Region – 6:50 PM on Thursday

On Tuesday night, we saw Colorado State take apart a Virginia team that many did not think should be in the NCAA Tournament field. The Rams held them to 25.0 percent shooting from the field while knocking down 55.3 percent of their own shots. Point guard Isaiah Stevens is the catalyst while Nique Clifford and Joel Scott have consistently produced all season. Colorado State moves the ball as a team and they work for good shots. 

As a team this season, Texas has shot 36.2 percent from three and 47.4 percent from the field. Forward Dylan Disu and 3,000 career point scorer Max Abmas are the two leading the way while Dillon Mitchell and Tyrese Hunter are both also in double figures. The Longhorns need to rebound it better. Eight players have started at least five games this season with all eight maintaining at least 17.5 minutes per game for the season.

Can Colorado State get the game in the half-court and, if they do, can Texas stop them when they are running their stuff? Will Colorado State be able to handle the length and explosive athleticism of Texas?

(4) Kansas vs. (13) Samford

Midwest Region – 9:55 PM on Thursday

Samford has been affectionately referred to as “Bucky Ball”, named after the up-tempo style of play employed by head coach Bucky McMillan. Samford finished the season 29-5, averaging 86.0 points per game. They move the ball as a team, pressure the ball on defense, and shoot high-percentage shots. Junior forward Achor Achor led the way in scoring and rebounding, earning first-team All-Southern Conference honors. Four players finished in double figures for the Bulldogs this season while ten players averaged between 12 and 25 minutes played. 

Kansas has limped to the finish line this season, struggling with injuries and a short bench. Head Coach Bill Self has already announced that leading scorer Kevin McCullar will be out for the tournament. Kansas has four players averaging over 30 minutes per game, with three others between 14 and 24 minutes. Without McCullar, only center Hunter Dickinson and forward KJ Adams are averaging in double figures. This team still has talent, and Self has still won multiple national titles. 

How much will the lack of depth and missing their star player hurt a Kansas team that has lost eight of their last 15 games? Can Samford establish the pace and keep it going throughout?

(5) Gonzaga vs. (12) McNeese

Midwest Region – 7:25 PM Thursday

McNeese State, coached by former LSU head coach Will Wade, finished 30-3 on the season earning a Southland Championship. They like to pressure the ball at the point of attack and they shoot the ball from three at a high clip. Shahada Wells, a TCU transfer, leads the Cowboys averaging 17.8 points and shooting 40.2 percent from three. McNeese State has four players in double figures and they average 10.4 steals per game. 

Like McNeese, Gonzaga likes to play fast, averaging 84.9 points this season. Their calling card this season has come by establishing themselves around the basket. Gonzaga, led by center Graham Ike, is averaging 38.9 rebounds per game this season and they are getting shots from close range. Ike is the team’s leading score and rebounder. Anton Watson is the swiss-army-knife production guy.

Both teams would prefer this game to be played in the 80s. Will Gonzaga be able to establish their presence in the paint despite the pressure McNeese State will bring from the opening tip?

(5) Wisconsin vs. (12) James Madison

South Region – 9:40 PM on Friday

Mark Byington finished the season 31-3 with a Sun Belt championship and he did so with a team that plays fast and scores points. Senior Terrence Edwards is the leading scorer while Boston College transfer TJ Bickerstaff is the leading rebounder. As a team, the Dukes score 84.4 points and shoot 36.5 percent from three. They have eight players who will play 14.9 minutes or more.

Wisconsin had an up-and-down season coming out the gates winning 16 of their first 20 games. Then the Badgers stumbled across the finish line dropping nine of their final 15 games. Wing AJ Storr is the team’s leading scorer, averaging 19.9 points on 38.9 percent shooting from three in March. Tyler Wahl and Steven Crawl are the Badgers’ one-two punch in the paint. Wisconsin plays at a slower pace than James Madison, but it is not excruciatingly slow. They do like to play inside out and move the ball.

Can Wisconsin slow James Madison down and establish their presence on the block?

(6) Texas Tech vs. (11) NC State

South Region – 9:40 PM on Thursday

Matchups are going to be the storyline going into this game. While NC State center DJ Burns will grab a lot of the headlines, senior guard DJ Horne has been the catalyst for this Wolfpack team. Kevin Keatts plays a pressure style of defense with multiple guards who are comfortable creating offense off the bounce. 

Texas Tech likes to play at a slower pace, relying on seven players who play over 20 minutes per game. Warren Washington, the team’s rim protector and second-leading rebounder, has missed the team’s last six games. Forward Darrion Williams is an interesting matchup with his production and the guard duo of Joe Toussaint and Pop Issacs are tough. Texas Tech does not foul much and they make their free-throw attempts. 

Can NC State establish DJ Burns on the block and make enough shots around him? Can Texas Tech slow the pace and get enough clean looks from three?