NCAA Tournament: Seven teams that can win a championship

It is here, the most glorious time of year. The NCAA Tournament Selection Committee has provided us with the 2024 Tournament brackets. The play-in games will be played in Dayton, Ohio on Tuesday and Wednesday with the first-round of games set to start on Thursday.

The four teams holding the 1-seed are UConn (No. 1 overall seed), Houston, Purdue, and .UNC.

This year, as much as ever, there is parity in the college basketball game. But why is there parity this year, it is more because the better teams have shown some hiccups along the way. However, even in the years when Cinderella-type teams make dramatic runs, the champions tend to come from one of the 12 teams that sit on the top three seed lines. Since 2000, only twice has a team outside of the top three seed lines won the title. In 2023 UConn won as a four-seed and in 2014 UConn won as a seven-seed. In 16 of the 23 NCAA Tournaments since 2000, a team on the one-seed line won it all. Three times a three-seed won and twice a two-seed. 

I wanted to take a look through the recently released NCAA Tournament brackets and discuss the teams I think could win the National Championship. Looking at teams like Tennessee and Arizona, who both enter the NCAA Tournament as two seeds, but stumbled down the stretch. This has led to some questions that I have about either of their abilities to win a title. 

With Arizona, they have the firepower to score with, and on anyone. However, their chemistry was up and down toward the end of the year. Caleb Love averages almost twice as many shots (14.5) as the next person on the team (Oumar Ballo, 7.9). Over their last five games, Love shot 21-63 (33%) from the field and 9-36 (25%) from three while dishing 16 assists to 15 turnovers. While finishing 15-5 in Pac-12 play, Arizona lost two of their last three games. In games this season where Love led Arizona in scoring, the Wildcats are 8-6. In games when other players led Arizona in scoring, the Wildcats were 17-2. 

With Tennessee, Dalton Knecht has proven to be one of college basketball’s most lethal scorers this season. In SEC play, the 6-foot-6 senior averaged 24.9 points shooting 41.1 percent from three. Tennessee stumbles into the NCAA Tournament on a two-game losing streak. In the loss to Kentucky, Knecht scored 40 of the team’s 81. And in the SEC Tournament 17-point loss to Mississippi State, the sheer physicality of the Bulldogs led the Vols to shoot 30.6 percent from the field and 24.2 percent from three. Knecht led Tennessee in scoring in 20 of their 32 games, which included six of their eight losses. A possible x-factor, in the 14 games where center Jonas Aidoo scored more than 11 points, Tennessee is 13-1. 

Both of these teams have the necessary firepower. Tennessee’s 79.5 points per game sits in the top 50 while Arizona is third in the country, scoring 87.9 points per game. We will see how they fare.

Come NCAA Tournament time it is all about matchups. Can a team find the right matchups to string together six consecutive wins over a few-week period? Let’s discuss eight teams that I think could win a NCAA Tournament championship this season. 

2024 NCAA Tournament Field of 68 teams, March Madness bracket revealed

The NCAA Tournament Favorites

Houston Cougars, Big 12

Season: 30-4 (15-3 Big 12)

Top Performers: PG Jamal Shead (B12 Player of the Year) 13.1 points, 6.2 assists, 2.3 steals | G LJ Cryer (2nd Team All-Big 12) 15.3 points, 39.0% 3P | F J’Wan Roberts (3rd Team All-Big 12) 9.4 points, 6.8 rebounds, 1.3 steals | G Emanuel Sharp 12.2 points

The Buzz: Kelvin Sampson has kept Houston in the top ten throughout the year. Despite moving up from the American Conference to the Big 12 the Cougars won the regular season championship. Houston did it with their defense, giving up 57.0 points per game. Their defense was led at the point of attack by Big 12 Player of the Year Jamal Shead. He finished third in the conference in steals and in assists. On the block, forwards Ja’Vier Francis, J’Wan Roberts, and JoJo Tugler provide a physical presence, able to switch, rebound, and protect the rim. 

Houston was blown out by Iowa State in the Big 12 Championship game. The Cougars shot 26.8 percent from the field and lost the rebound battle 35-34 and the turnover battle 12-9. Iowa State shot 50.0 percent from the field and 40.9 percent from three. The team has solid depth, with multiple players able to create offense and provide a presence around the rim.

If Houston is able to establish their physicality on the floor they have a good chance. Three stats to watch in Houston’s games are the rebounding battle, the turnover battle, and their three-pointers made. 

Houston is the No. 1 seed in the South Region and will play on Friday against Longwood in Memphis.

Purdue Boilermakers, Big Ten

Season: 29-4 (17-3 in Big Ten)

Top Performers: C Zach Edey (Big Ten Player of the Year) 24.4 points, 11.7 rebounds, 2.2 blocks | PG Braden Smith (1st Team All-Big Ten) 12.5 points, 5.8 rebounds, 7.3 assists, 1.3 steals | F Mason Gillis (Big Ten Sixth Man of the Year) 7.1 points, 48.1% 3P | G Lance Jones 12.2 points | G Fletcher Loyer 10.4 points, 43.9% 3P

The Buzz: Purdue came into the season as the No. 1 ranked team in the country. They have maintained their status within the top five all season. Purdue has walked onto each court this season with the most dominant player in college basketball. The 7-foot-4 Zach Edey is the reigning National Player of the Year. He earned Big Ten Player of the Year awards already this season. He finished all 33 games in double figures, with 24 of them being double-doubles.

Purdue came into the season with questions surrounding their guard play. The addition of grad transfer Lance Jones and a year’s growth of sophomores Braden Smiha and Fletcher Loyer have provided steadiness. In Purdue’s four losses, Braden Smith has shot 16-42 (38.0%) from the field, 3-12 (25%) from three and averaged 3.3 turnovers. Lance Smith has shot 13-44 (29.5%) from the field, 6-23 (26.1%) from three, and had three assists to nine turnovers. Loyer is 10-28 (35.7%) from the field and 7-14 (50.0%) from three. 

Purdue will need to string together six straight games of consistency from their guards. While the ball stays hot with them, some stats to watch are the rebounding battle, free-throws attempted, and their three-point shooting percentage.

Purdue is the No. 1 seed in the Midwest Region and will play the winner of the Montana State / Grambling State play-in game. They will play on Friday in Indianapolis.

UConn Huskies, Big East

Season: 31-3 (18-2 in Big East)

Top Performers: G Tristen Newton (1st Team All-Big East) 15.2 points, 7.0 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 1.0 steals | G Cam Spencer (1st Team All-Big East) 14.5 points, 3.6 assists, 44.4% 3P | F Alex Karaban 13.9 points, 5.0 rebounds,  39.5% 3P | C Donovan Clingan 12.5 points, 7.2 rebounds, 2.3 blocks | G Stephon Castle (Big East Rookie of the Year) 10.8 points, 4.5 rebounds, 2.9 assists

The Buzz: UConn is the defending national champion and throughout the season, they never waivered stringing together three different seven, or more, game win streaks. The Huskies finished top 25 in points per game and in points allowed per game. They finished with each of their starting five in double figures. Four other players in the rotation played 9.0 or more minutes per game. The Huskies have a depth of players that Danny Hurley trusts, they can spread the floor as a team, and they defend and rebound.

In UConn’s three losses, they shot 18-65 (27.7%) from three and took 41 free throws while giving up 55. Alex Karaban’s shot-making could be an x-factor for this Huskies team. In the team’s three losses, he has shot 30.0 percent from the field and 25.0 percent from three.

When UConn is able to establish their physicality and make shots they have been tough to beat. Some stats to track with them are on the offensive side, the shooting percentages from three and two and assist totals.  

UConn got the No. 1 overall seed and are in the East Region. They will play Stetson on Friday in Brooklyn, New York.

The Next Tournament Title Tier

UNC Tar Heels, ACC

The Buzz: UNC made it to the ACC Championship game before dropping the finals to NC State. Their 81,5 points per game finished No. 23 in DI while their 62.5 field goals attempted per game finished No. 29. The Tar Heels are led by ACC Player of the Year RJ Davis whose 21.4 points led the conference while shooting 40.6 percent from three. Armando Bacot is the ACC’s career leader in total rebounds and transfer forward Harrison Ingram finished fourth in the ACC with 9.0 rebounds this season. Davis has led UNC in scoring for 22 of the 34 games. In the 12 games that Davis did not lead the Tar Heels in scoring, they are 11-1. UNC is 16-2 in the games they scored 80 or more points this season. Watch the rebounding battle (UNC averages 41.1 per game) and their amount of possessions that end in shots. 

UNC is the No. 1 seed in the West Region and will play the winner of the Howard and Wagner play-in game. They will play Thursday in Charlotte.

Auburn Tigers, SEC

The Buzz: Auburn blasted through the SEC Tournament with wins over three NCAA Tournament teams in South Carolina, Mississippi State, and Florida. They have played at a fast pace this season. The Tigers move the ball and protect the rim. They have a rotation of ten players who played in 30 or more games this year while averaging 13.6 minutes or more. Seven different players have led the Tigers in scoring. Senior big man Johni Broome finished first-team All-SEC this season. His 2.2 blocks and 8.3 rebounds both finished second in the league. Senior Jaylin Williams was named second-team All-SEC. Wing Chad Baker-Mazara finished the season strong averaging 12.4 points and shooting 48.5 percent from three over his last 12 games. Turnovers have proven to be a struggle at times for the Tigers, on the season, they averaged 10.5 per game. Of the seven losses, in six of them they committed more than their season average. They enter the NCAA Tournament on a six-game win streak.

Auburn earned the four seed in the East Region and will play Yale on Friday in Spokane, Washington.

Iowa State Cyclones, Big 12

The Buzz: Iowa State caught some flack with their out-of-conference scheduling, with some suggesting the Cyclones figured out a way to manipulate the NET by scheduling bad teams and blowing them out. Fast forward to March, and Iowa State blew out No. 1 ranked  Houston in the Big 12 Championship game to earn the conference’s automatic birth. Their defense has been the team’s calling card. The Cyclones limited opponents to 61.3 points per game and shot 40.0 percent from the field. Guards Tamin Lipsey and Keshon Gilbert are ball hawks at the point of attack, averaging a combined 4.7 steals per game and each finishing in the top five in the Big Ten. They need to rebound consistently, and more importantly, can they score enough? They are currently sixth in the Big 12 in points per game and in field goal and three-point shooting per game. Iowa State had six players lead them in scoring this season with a rotation of eight playing in ten or more minutes per game. They have won seven of their last eight heading into the NCAA Tournament.

Iowa State earned the No. 2 seed in the East Region and will play South Dakota State on Thursday in Omaha, Nebraska.

Marquette Golden Eagles, Big East

The Buzz: Marquette came into the season with heavy expectations, and they lived up to them throughout the season. They have stayed around the top ten since November after returning last year’s Big East Player of the Year Tyler Kolek and last year’s second-team All-Big East selection Oso Ighodaro. Both players finished this year with All-Big East nods. The Golden Eagles’ leading scorer was junior wing Kam Jones. His 16.8 points per game finished seventh in the league. Marquette had eight players who averaged five or more points per game. Their eight-man rotation each played 16.2 minutes or more. Marquette moves the ball well which leads to efficient shooting. They need to rebound consistently and find ways to protect the rim. The Golden Eagles have won 11 of the last 12 games that Tyler Kolek has played in.

Marquette is the No. 2 seed in the South Region and will play Western Kentucky on Friday in Indianapolis.