The new coaches: Who has the toughest job - and the easiest?

There are 18 new coaches this season, and going by recent history, more than half will be gone in five years. Consider: 11 of the 15 new coaches for 2015 are gone, while 17 of the 28 in 2016 and 10 of the 23 for ’17 have departed.

An important part of a coach’s potential success is the shape of the program when he takes over. And, man, those vary wildly this season. In short, pity poor Lance Leipold and raise a glass to Gus Malzahn.

Here are our rankings of how tough each new guy has it this fall. This is not meant as a predictor of eventual success; rather, it’s a measure of how the 18 programs stand up when compared to each other right now.

1. Kansas

Former coach: Les Miles

The new guy: Lance Leipold

The buzz: Miles was a failure on and off the field, and while Leipold, 57, is an excellent tactician and a proven winner (six Division III national titles in eight seasons at Wisconsin-Whitewater and three bowls in six seasons at Buffalo), he is taking over the worst Power 5 program in the nation. KU has won 18 games in the past 10 seasons. If Leipold can get three wins out of this roster, 2021 will have been a remarkable success. KU seems at least three seasons away from sniffing even .500. Kansas had a nice four-season run from 2005-08, including an Orange Bowl appearance, so it can be done.

2. ULM

Former coach: Matt Viator

The new guy: Terry Bowden

The buzz: When ULM was known as Northeast Louisiana, it was one of the best Division I-AA programs in the nation. But ULM has been in the FBS ranks since 1994 and has had just one winning record (and four other .500 marks). The WarHawks bottomed out last season, going 0-10 and losing every game but one by at least 18 points (included was a 50-point loss to archrival Louisiana). Bowden, 65, was, basically, an analyst the past two seasons at Clemson as he finished a graduate degree. He was coach at woebegone Akron from 2012-18 and took the Zips to two bowls, so he knows how to rebuild horrible programs. He has Rich Rodriguez as his offensive coordinator, and they have a lot of work to do.

3. Vanderbilt

Former coach: Derek Mason

The new guy: Clark Lea

The buzz: Lea, 38, is both a Nashville native and a Vandy alum, so he has seen first-hand how tough it is to win at the school. He’s also taking over a program coming off a winless season, though Mason did guide Vandy to two bowls in his seven years. Mason’s defenses generally were well-schooled and played hard, and that should continue with Lea, who had been DC at Notre Dame. But there’s a lot of work to be done offensively. Vandy also must find a way to find and develop more talent. That is a long-time issue: Vandy has had just seven winning seasons since 1960.

4. Illinois

Former coach: Lovie Smith

The new guy: Bret Bielema

The buzz: Smith proved to be a bad fit and had 17 wins in five seasons. Bielema, 51, who spent the past three years in the NFL, certainly knows how to win in the Big Ten, as he was 68-24 in seven seasons at Wisconsin; he guided the Badgers to the Rose Bowl in each of his final three seasons. Illinois is a perennial underachiever, having won double-digit games just once in the past 30 seasons. Smith did a horrible job with in-state recruiting, and Bielema already has made some in-roads there. But there are miles to go before the Illini can contend in the Big Ten West.

5. Arizona

Former coach: Kevin Sumlin

The new guy: Jedd Fisch

The buzz: The Wildcats won nine games in three seasons under Sumlin, including an 0-9 showing last season. In steps Fisch, 47, who spent the past three seasons in the NFL, including serving as New England’s quarterback coach in 2020. He has spent 14 of his 19-season career as an assistant in the NFL and hasn’t coached in college since 2017, at UCLA. He has numerous former NFL assistants on his staff, so the teaching aspect shouldn’t be a problem. But Sumlin’s recruiting efforts were brutal, so the current roster doesn’t have much talent. This program has the potential to be a consistent winner; is Fisch the guy to unlock it?

6. Tennessee

Former coach: Jeremy Pruitt

The new guy: Josh Heupel

The buzz: The wheels came off in a very public manner for Pruitt last season: He received a contract extension in September, then was fired for cause in January. New athletic director Danny White hired Heupel, 43, who had coached for him at UCF. Heupel was 28-8 in three seasons at UCF and oversaw some of the best offenses in the nation. But there is no question UCF dipped from where it started under Heupel, as the Knights lost four times last season. He is taking over a UT program gutted by the transfer portal and facing NCAA sanctions, and there are just seven returning starters. The schedule isn’t overly difficult, which could be the saving grace this season. The overriding long-term question: Can Heupel and his staff recruit well enough to get UT back into the title mix in the SEC East?

7. South Carolina

Former coach: Will Muschamp

The new guy: Shane Beamer

The buzz: Tennessee is a better job overall than South Carolina, but the massive loss of talent at UT means Beamer, 44, has a slightly easier job than Heupel right now. Beamer certainly has the pedigree: He is Frank’s son and has worked for Steve Spurrier, Kirby Smart and Lincoln Riley. There are some concerns, though: Not only is Beamer a first-time head coach, he never was even a coordinator, and his staff isn’t filled with household names. Presumably, he has brought some offensive ideas from Oklahoma, where he spent the past three seasons, and in Kevin Harris, he has a stud running back. There also is talent along the defensive front. A bowl in 2021 would represent a wildly successful first season.

8. South Alabama

Former coach: Steve Campbell

The new guy: Kane Wommack

The buzz: South Alabama never has had a winning record in its nine seasons as a FBS program, though it has played in two bowls. The Jaguars have won just nine games in the past three seasons, and into the breach steps Wommack, 34, who did yeoman work the past two years as Indiana’s defensive coordinator. He also knows this program, as he spent 2016 and ’17 as South Alabama’s DC. His first task? He needs to help USA surpass Troy, the other Alabama-based team in the Sun Belt Conference; then he can set his sights on contending for a division title. There is a solid recruiting base; Wommack must tap into it. The Jags’ offensive coordinator is Major Applewhite.

9. Southern Miss

Former coach: Jay Hopson

The new guy: Will Hall

The buzz: Southern Miss had a winning record every year from 1994 to 2011, then went off the rails – actually, off the rails and over the cliff – in 2012 under Ellis Johnson, who took over a 12-win team and proceeded to guide the Golden Eagles to a 0-12 record. He was dismissed after one season, and the program gradually has regained its footing, though it no longer is the premier program in Conference USA and had three coaches last season. Hall, 41, has a great rep as an offensive guru, and if he lives up to his hype, Southern Miss should be battling for the top spot in C-USA by ’24.

10. Utah State

Former coach: Gary Andersen

The new guy: Blake Anderson

The buzz: The Aggies fell a long way in two years under Andersen, who didn’t exactly seem fully invested during his second go-round in Logan. Utah State won 11 games under Matt Wells in 2018, then won seven in 2019 and just one last season. While 2021 could be a struggle, this program still has a good foundation, and Anderson, 52, who was hired away from Arkansas State, has the offensive chops to have the Aggies back on the good side of .500 as soon as 2022.

11. Texas

Former coach: Tom Herman

The new guy: Steve Sarkisian

The buzz: Sarkisian, 47, is taking over at one of the true “big boy” jobs in college football. Yet the Longhorns have scuffled during the past decade. During a magnificent nine-season run under Mack Brown from 2001-09, they won double-digit games every season; that has happened only once since, and had happened just four times in the preceding 20 seasons. In other words, the “underachiever” label fits. One positive this season for Sarkisian — who spent the past two seasons as Alabama’s offensive coordinator and is a former head coach at Washington and USC — is that outside of Oklahoma and Iowa State, the Big 12 doesn’t have any clear-cut top-20 teams. That means Sarkisian’s first team in Austin has a chance to make some noise. But to truly make noise, Sarkisian has to get the Longhorns consistently into the top 10. There won’t be much patience.

12. Auburn

Former coach: Gus Malzahn

The new guy: Bryan Harsin

The buzz: Malzahn went 68-35 in eight seasons with the Tigers. But he lost at least four games in every season but his first (when the Tigers played for the national title), and unfortunately for him was in charge at Auburn when the Tigers’ archrival took over the college football world. Harsin, 44, did excellent work at Boise State and steps into a solid situation. But “solid” gets you beat three or four times a year in the SEC.

13. Buffalo

Former coach: Lance Leipold

The new guy: Maurice Linguist

The buzz: Buffalo became a FBS program in 1999 and has had just five winning seasons; three of those (plus a .500 season) came under Leipold, who spent six years at the school before leaving for Kansas in April. Linguist, 37, had spent the previous four months as Michigan’s co-defensive coordinator. Linguist was the Dallas Cowboys’ secondary coach in 2020 and has spent time as an assistant in the Big 12, Big Ten and SEC, as well as two seasons at Buffalo (2012-13). The Bulls have gone 24-10 in the past three seasons, so Linguist is taking over one of the best programs in the MAC.

14. Arkansas State

Former coach: Blake Anderson

The new guy: Butch Jones

The buzz: Anderson, 52, left for Utah State in December after seven seasons, all but one (2020) resulting in winning records. Arkansas State is one of the better programs in the Sun Belt, but it has slipped a bit of late, mainly because others (Coastal Carolina and Louisiana) have ascended. Jones, 53, who spent the past three seasons as an analyst at Alabama, enjoyed big-time success at two Group of 5 schools, Central Michigan and Cincinnati, before ultimately failing at Tennessee. As at CMU and Cincy, this is not a rebuild for Jones, though there is more work to be done in Jonesboro than at those schools.

15. Ohio

Former coach: Frank Solich

The new guy: Tim Albin

The buzz: Solich, 76, stepped down for health reasons July 14, on the eve of his 17^th season at the school. Albin, 55, immediately was named his successor, signing a four-year deal. He had been Solich’s offensive coordinator since 2005, so he knows the ins-and-outs of the program. Ohio was an almost-annual contender in the MAC under Solich, and the Bobcats should challenge for the title this season. The hope with Albin, obviously, is that he continues the winning ways the program enjoyed under Solich (no losing records since 2008).

16. Marshall

Former coach: Doc Holliday

The new guy: Charles Huff

The buzz: The Herd played for the Conference USA title last season and won 68 games from 2013-20. But school officials (or maybe it was the governor ) decided it was time to part ways with Holliday. Huff, 38, who had been running backs coach at Alabama and is a head coach for the first time, takes over a program that might be the best in its league; at worst, this is one of the top three in C-USA. Instead of rebuilding, Huff just needs to tweak.

17. Boise State

Former coach: Bryan Harsin

The new guy: Andy Avalos

The buzz: Boise’s program has been the poster child for success in the Group of 5 ranks; the Broncos have won double-digit games 16 times this century and have the best official winning percentage (83.2) of any FBS team in the nation in that span (the “official” part comes in when vacated wins for others are figured in). While the program is in great shape, Avalos is a first-time head coach, which adds a touch of skepticism. His team will be expected to play for the Mountain West title this fall.

18. UCF

Former coach: Josh Heupel

The new guy: Gus Malzahn

The buzz: The Knights have won 41 games in the past four seasons and have double-digit win totals in seven of the past 14 seasons. In short, Malzahn takes over one of the best Group of 5 programs in the nation. He also has a ton of offensive firepower with which to work. And while the AAC is a good league, Malzahn, 55, has been coaching in the SEC, so this should be “easier,” for sure.

(Photo of Steve Sarkisian at top of page: Tim Warner/Getty Images)