New Mexico Bowl point spread: Picking New Mexico State Aggies vs. Fresno State Bulldogs

With the first bowl games of the postseason kicking off this weekend, On3’s Andy Staples and Chris Vannini of The Athletic took a look at the New Mexico Bowl between New Mexico State and Fresno State.

How to watch New Mexico State vs. Fresno State

Time: 5:45 p.m. EST, 3:45 p.m. MST
Channel: ESPN or ESPN+, FuboTV (streaming)
Location: University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)

Staples and Vannini did so on Monday’s episode of ‘Andy Staples On3’. They both started with their respective love for Aggie QB Diego Pavia considering what a character and player that he is.

“This dude leads the team in rushing, leads the team in passing. Incredibly tough, looks like a wrestler when you see him,” said Vannini. “All signs are he is going to play and I’m very excited about that.”

“If you remember him in the Quick Lane Bowl last year against Bowling Green? That’s when a lot of people first saw him,” Vannini continued. “This is the only time people will see New Mexico State for a lot of people. So, watch Diego Pavia – an extremely fun players.”

However, Vannini added that, in general, New Mexico State is in a better place in this matchup. After going 10-4, with their only loss since October coming against undefeated Liberty in the Conference USA Championship, he just thinks they’ll be in a better headspace in Albuquerque.

“You mentioned vibes. New Mexico State? Incredible vibes coming in,” Vannini said. “They’ve won 10 games. Jerry Kill has got them going to two bowl games for the first time since, like, the 60s. There was a video a couple of weeks ago of him smoking a cigar in the locker room while the players are chanting about buying a keg and stuff like that. It’s just immaculate vibes coming out of New Mexico State.”

That’s when Vannini and Staples both turned their attention to Fresno State who, in comparison, is not doing as well. After an 8-1 start, they closed on a three-game losing streak where the defeats came by an average of 15.7 points with two coming against 4-8 opponents.

Add in the absence of Jeff Tedford on the sidelines and it’s clear to each that this is going to be a lot for the Bulldogs to overcome.

“The opposite, really, for Fresno State. Jeff Tedford, head coach, is out for a bit due to health issues – TBD on what his future is. They lost three straight games to close the season, the defense really struggled,” said Vannini. “Very, very big vibes difference in this game.”

“Fresno State started hot. Remember, they beat Purdue early, started 5-0, and you were thinking, ‘Okay, this is a team that could win the Mountain West’, ‘This is a team that maybe could make a New Year’s Six bowl if they’re the Mountain West champ’. Then they lose Wyoming, it starts to get a little shaky. The end of the season was bad,” said Staples. “The last two games? They lost to teams that fired their head coach. That is a bad sign right there.”

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That’s why, in the end, both Staples and Vannini took New Mexico State to win and cover the 3.5-point spread inside University Stadium on Saturday. Considering the Pavia factor as well as the poor finish from Fresno State, they both see it being an 11th and final victory for the Aggies this weekend.

“I was going to pick New Mexico State the second I heard that Diego Pavia was starting,” said Staples. “New Mexico State by 1,000 – done!”

“I’m honestly surprised it’s only +3.5,” Vannini said. “I’m going New Mexico State too. It kind of seems too obvious.”