On3’s NFL Mock Draft: Who gets to fleece some team so it can take J.J. McCarthy?

The NFL Draft is the strangest event to predict because unlike nearly any other situation, no one has an incentive to tell the truth. Teams don’t want to give away their strategies and will deliberately distribute bad information to throw other teams off the scent of certain players. Agents, meanwhile, want to make their clients look as good as possible — especially if they know their clients may not fare so well once the draft actually starts.

This year, it feels as if the misinformation machine is in overdrive with regard to quarterbacks. Stories claiming that one or another is surging up draft boards feel oddly coordinated. And this makes it impossible to believe anything. 

There was chatter Monday about Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. cracking the top 10. Oregon’s Bo Nix has been mocked frequently in the first round. Could six quarterbacks get chosen in the first round? It’s certainly possible, but I suspect some teams that seem desperate for a QB at the moment will look at the available options in the middle-to-late first and feel comfortable that some of those players might be around in the second.

Meanwhile, which will be the team that trades up and blows everyone’s carefully crafted mocks? We have no idea, and that’s what makes this so much fun. For me, I come at it from the perspective of someone deeply invested in watching college football. I’m also a firm believer that offensive linemen are the smartest, best-looking people on any football team. So be warned: Even for a deep offensive line class, this mock is heavy on the heavy dudes.

1. Chicago Bears

Caleb Williams, QB, USC

I slotted Caleb Williams here during the second half of the 2021 Texas-Oklahoma game when he relieved Spencer Rattler and led the Sooners back to a win. His Heisman Trophy season at USC in 2022 obviously reinforced that belief.

Did some of the stuff this year at USC give off some Kyler Murray vibes? Yes. (It should be noted that Kyler Murray, also a No. 1 overall pick, is a solid NFL QB. But solid is not the goal at this spot.) But Williams’ combination of arm talent and improvisational skill doesn’t come along often. If you’re the Bears, you have to take him and hope Williams’ regression in 2023 was because of the talent around him. Then give him access to D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen and see what happens.

2. Washington Commanders

Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU

Why Jayden Daniels over Drake Maye? Because I can’t shake watching North Carolina lose to Virginia this season and Georgia Tech the past two seasons. 

Daniels, meanwhile, elevated an LSU team that could have been mediocre because of its terrible defense. Instead, Daniels won the Heisman Trophy and the Tigers wound up winning 10 games. The concerns about Daniels’ frame are understandable, but he’ll hopefully be running a lot less in the NFL than he did in college. Though, given how many times Sam Howell got sacked last season, maybe Daniels is going to take just as many hits at this level.

3. New England Patriots

Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina

My concerns about Drake Maye not being able to elevate his team’s play only extend so far. He’s still a 6-4, 229-pound plus athlete with a rocket launcher attached to his right shoulder.

Like Anthony Richardson last year, a superior athlete with a superior arm is going to get chosen high. Could Maye develop into the next Josh Allen? It’s possible. The tools are there. And the Patriots need a franchise QB. So they’ll roll the dice. 

4. Arizona Cardinals

Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State

We’ve seen a lot of mock drafts that have the Cardinals swapping first-rounders with a QB-needy team that will gallup up to No. 4 and take Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy. The Cardinals rightfully should ask for the moon if they can get the Vikings, Broncos, Raiders and maybe the Giants into a bidding war. But what if those teams don’t bite or realize that there’s a cluster of teams starting with the Cardinals that have no interest in drafting a QB? Might the price be lower toward the bottom of the top 10?

No draft has had QBs go Nos. 1-4, and I’m predicting that doesn’t change. That means the Cardinals get their pick of a loaded receiver group to give Murray the kind of target who can change the entire look of the offense. Between Marvin Harrison Jr., LSU’s Malik Nabers and Washington’s Rome Odunze, it really comes down to what flavor you want. Harrison isn’t quite as thick as Larry Fitzgerald, but his combination of explosiveness and otherworldly body control could give Cardinals fans flashbacks. 

5. L.A. Chargers

Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame

Yes, the Chargers need receivers after trading Keenan Allen to the Bears and letting Mike Williams walk in free agency. But remember, Jim Harbaugh was granted a significant level of personnel control when he was hired. And how does Jim Harbaugh like to build a team? From the line of scrimmage out. So he takes the best offensive lineman on the board. The 6-9, 321-pound Joe Alt can thrive for years in the NFL. With Rashawn Slater at left tackle, Alt could plug in on the right side and allow the Chargers to dangle Trey Pipkins to tackle-needy teams. Or the Chargers can keep Pipkins this season and have three capable tackles. The team hasn’t made a decision on Slater’s fifth-year option (and has to decide by May 2). But taking Alt could allow the Chargers to pick up the option and have two seasons with Alt and Slater before deciding whether to break the bank for Slater in 2026. 

6. New York Giants

Malik Nabers, WR, LSU

The Giants had exactly zero pass-catching targets who scared defenses in 2023. That changes immediately with Malik Nabers in the fold. He’s fast, extremely physical for his size and will fight for every ball. Whether the Giants QB1 in 2024 is Daniel Jones or someone else, that QB will look better because Nabers is on the field with him. 

7. Tennessee Titans

Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State

With Brian Callahan coming in as the head coach and his dad Bill Callahan coaching the offensive line and this being an incredibly deep year for tackles, of course Titans general manager Ran Carthon is looking for a left tackle. The Titans desperately need one, too. In Olu Fashanu, they get a smart, athletic left tackle who should make the elder Callahan quite happy.

8. Atlanta Falcons

Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama

The Falcons get a fast, aggressive corner comfortable covering outside or in the slot. The bonus with Terrion Arnold is a face-of-the-franchise personality that Falcons fans will fall in love with quickly.

9. Minnesota Vikings (trade with Bears)

J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan

Would the Bears help a division rival find its quarterback of the future? That’s the wrong question. Would the Bears try to fleece yet another QB-needy team for a great receiver and more draft picks? Absolutely. Maybe J.J. McCarthy is as good as his recent pre-draft hype suggests. He showed flashes at Michigan that explain why scouts would get excited, but Michigan didn’t ask McCarthy to do enough to show whether he has all the tools he needs at the next level. Maybe he does. The Bears make this trade hoping he doesn’t and knowing they can use the assets acquired to put more talent around the QB they’re taking at No. 1.

Meanwhile, the Vikings — or whoever actually winds up taking McCarthy — will hope that the brilliance he showed in moments such as Michigan’s final regulation possession in the Rose Bowl is scalable and not merely a product of the talent around McCarthy at Michigan.

10. New York Jets

Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia

Yes, the Jets need receivers to help Garrett Wilson and Aaron Rodgers. But let’s not get too bogged down in labels. Brock Bowers is an offensive weapon who can stress defenses in more ways than just about anyone else in this draft.

11. Chicago Bears

Rome Odunze, WR, Washington

Last year, the Bears turned the No. 1 pick into receiver D.J. Moore, offensive tackle Darnell Wright, cornerback Tyrique Stevenson and — most importantly — QB Caleb Williams by fleecing the Panthers, who wanted to move up to draft Bryce Young. By doing the same to the Vikings or some other team trying to trade up for a QB, they can turn their own first-rounder this year into a player like Rome Odunze who — when teamed with Moore and Keenan Allen — would give Williams a ready-made arsenal. The price for moving up those few slots likely would be a 2024 or 2025 second rounder or maybe something even better. The Bears could get a player they might have chosen anyway at No. 9 and then add picks later that could provide more impact players.

12. Denver Broncos

Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo

Any doubts Quinyon Mitchell faced about the level of competition in the MAC were erased during Senior Bowl practices when he locked down pretty much everyone he faced. He combines blazing speed with physicality and ball skills. Denver needs pretty much everything and doesn’t have the cap room to pay for much. A corner who can take away a side of the field on a rookie contract is a good start for the rebuild.

13. Las Vegas Raiders

Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State

The Raiders get a mauler in Taliese Fuaga who can plug in at right tackle and help a run game with that now will rely on Zamir White instead of Josh Jacobs.

14. New Orleans Saints

Dallas Turner, Edge, Alabama

Free agent signee Chase Young just had neck surgery and Cam Jordan turns 35 in July, so the Saints get younger and more explosive off the edge. Dallas Turner led Alabama with 14.5 tackles for loss last season. 

15. Indianapolis Colts

J.C. Latham, OT, Alabama

J.C. Latham came to the combine weighing 342, about 20 pounds less than his playing weight at Alabama. This may be closer to his NFL playing weight, which should make him more capable of blocking faster edge rushers while still leaving plenty of power to bulldoze defenders in the run game.

16. Seattle Seahawks

Laiatu Latu, Edge, UCLA

New Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald — the former Ravens defensive coordinator — gets the kind of long, 260-or-so-pounder who feels designed to play on the edge in that scheme with Laiatu Latu.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars

Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU

LSU receivers coach Cortez Hankton Jr. calls Brian Thomas the best athlete he’s ever coached. Considering Hankton, whose previous stop was Georgia, also coached potential 2024 first-rounders Malik Nabers, A.D. Mitchell and Ladd McConkey, that’s high praise indeed.

18. Cincinnati Bengals

Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia

The Bengals signed right tackle Trent Brown after letting Jonah Williams leave in free agency, but Brown is only on a one-year deal. He could be the perfect mentor for Amarius Mims, who has all the traits and tools but who only started for one year at Georgia. (And Mims missed time in 2023 with injuries.) Someone is going to take Mims early, but that team should be prepared to ease him into the NFL rather than throw him to the wolves.

19. L.A. Rams

Jared Verse, Edge, Florida State

Even after Aaron Donald’s retirement, the Rams still need edge help the most. Jared Verse gives them an intelligent, explosive rusher who should be ready to contribute immediately.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers

Zach Frazier, C, West Virginia

The Steelers had a set-it-and-forget-it center for years in Maurkice Pouncey, but the position is effectively empty at the moment after the team let incumbent Mason Cole walk. Feel free to call this a reach, because Zach Frazier doesn’t appear this high on most mock drafts. But the legend of Frazier certainly has floated up to Pittsburgh from nearby Morgantown. He’s your favorite college offensive lineman’s favorite college offensive lineman. He has all the qualities necessary to be a great NFL center, and he could easily fill in at guard if necessary.

But the story that explains what Frazier brings to a team comes from his final collegiate play, which came against Baylor in the Mountaineers’ regular-season finale. West Virginia trailed 31-27 with 1:14 remaining and had no timeouts. Frazier, blocking downfield, pushed ballcarrier Hudson Clement for about six yards past the first-down marker to give his team a fresh set of downs. A Baylor tackler, trying to reach around Frazier to Clement, dragged down Frazier — whose fibula broke when his leg was trapped under him and the tackler.

Since West Virginia had no timeouts, Frazier knew he couldn’t lay on the field or wait for someone to help him up. An injury timeout would have cost his team a 10-second runoff and probably additional time for officials to blow the clock dead. So with a broken leg, Frazier hobbled off the field as fast as he could. He made it off in time for the Mountaineers to run their next play. They ended up scoring a touchdown with 23 seconds remaining and won the game 34-31.

21. Miami Dolphins

Byron Murphy, DT, Texas

In another era, the barely 6-foot Byron Murphy might be viewed as too small to pick this high. But his twitchiness and sheer strength more than make up for any lack of height or bulk. With Christian Wilkins gone, the Dolphins need someone to fill the void. Murphy has the traits. The production at Texas didn’t seem to match, so it will be up to the Dolphins to maximize Murphy’s talents.

22. Philadelphia Eagles

Graham Barton, IOL, Duke

With Cam Jurgens taking over for retired Jason Kelce, the Eagles have a hole at guard. They can fill it with Graham Barton, who played left tackle his final three seasons in college at left tackle after playing his freshman year at center. Barton projects as a guard or center in the NFL, but he probably could play anywhere along the line in a pinch. That makes him very valuable, and it probably would make Jeff Stoutland — the current best offensive line coach on Earth — very happy to have someone so versatile.

23. Minnesota Vikings

Jackson Powers-Johnson, IOL, Oregon

The Vikings haven’t resigned 2023 starter Dalton Risner, meaning a guard spot could be open. Jackson Powers-Johnson won the Rimington Trophy (best center) in 2023 at Oregon, but he played mostly right guard as a sophomore in 2022. If the Vikings decide not to bring back Risner, Powers-Johnson could play guard. He could slide over to center if the Vikings decide to let Garrett Bradbury walk after this season.

24. Dallas Cowboys

Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma

Tyler Guyton probably is the best pure athlete of this deep tackle class. But like Mims, he may need some time to learn the finer points of the position. If he can do that, he may have the highest ceiling of the bunch.

25. Green Bay Packers

Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa

Cooper DeJean is a freak athlete who can cover receivers and return punts. He may not know what to do playing opposite a functional offense, though.

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama

After trading Carlton Davis, the Bucs can either elevate Zyon McCollum or choose a high-ceiling corner in the draft. Kool-Aid McKinstry can smother receivers on the outside, which is especially enticing with Jamel Dean on the other side and a solid defensive line that could benefit from one more second to chase the QB.

27. Arizona Cardinals

Darius Robinson, Edge, Missouri

The Cardinals gave Kyler Murray a weapon earlier. Now they add a disruptor on the other side of the ball. Darius Robinson is quicker than his size (285 pounds) suggests, which gives him some positional versatility that could allow the Cardinals to quickly change fronts and confuse quarterbacks.

28. Buffalo Bills

WR Adonai Mitchell, Texas

Adonai Mitchell is incredibly fast for his size, and his catch radius will make it so Josh Allen doesn’t have to make a perfect throw to complete the pass. The Bills need help at receiver in the worst way, and Mitchell gives them a lot of versatility.

29. Detroit Lions

Braden Fiske, DT, Florida State

Put simply, Braden Fiske was born to play for Dan Campbell. Fiske, who played his first four seasons at Western Michigan, will be the ultimate culture fit for the Lions.

30. Baltimore Ravens

Chop Robinson, Edge, Penn State

When Chop Robinson was at his best in college, he could slip past offensive tackles seemingly before they even got out of their stances. But for all his explosiveness, Robinson didn’t put up the kind of numbers (7.5 tackles for loss in 10 games in 2023) that his athleticism suggests. The key will be maximizing his talent.

31. San Francisco 49ers

Troy Fautanu, OG/OT, Washington

Troy Fautanu was the best player on the offensive line that won the 2023 Joe Moore Award, and he’s ready to plug in at tackle or guard in the NFL.

32. Kansas City Chiefs

CB Nate Wiggins, Clemson

With L’Jarius Sneed gone, the Chiefs need to hit on yet another young DB to keep their defense rolling. Nate Wiggins could be that player. He’s long and otherworldly fast (4.28 40-yard dash at the Combine). But unlike some speedsters who can’t operate outside of a straight line, Wiggins is a smooth athlete capable of mirroring receivers and recovering after getting beat by a good move.