North Carolina vs. Florida State odds: Win probability, final score prediction for Tar Heels, Seminoles

North Carolina, the ACC’s clear and obvious top dog, meets a feisty Florida State squad in Tallahassee in a massive opportunity for the Seminoles to strengthen their NCAA Tournament resume.

Currently, FSU is just 12-7 with a couple of decent wins at Miami and vs. Colorado, but with a couple of rough losses mixed in, they could really use a crown jewel on their resume like a victory over UNC. Meanwhile, Hubert Davis‘ group looks to win their 10th straight game and advance to a 9-0 start in ACC play.

As for whether Carolina will take care of business or FSU will pull the upset, read up below on all the relevant point spreads and predictions below.

Odds for North Carolina vs. Florida State

The oddsmakers over at FanDuel have officially posted the line at -6.5 points in favor of the visiting Tar Heels. UNC also gets a pretty heavy road nod on the money line at -280 to win the game outright.

Florida State, on the other hand, is getting some major juice as the best bet in college sports: a home underdog. The ‘Noles are +225 to pull off the victory, while the over/under is set at 152.5 total points.

Final score predictions

College basketball’s premier analytical modelist, Ken Pomery, is also heavily leaning towards a UNC victory in Tallahassee today. He pegs Carolina as an eight-point favorite in a projected 80-72 final score, giving them a 76% to win.

ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) isn’t quite as bullish as KenPom on North Carolina’s chances, but does fall right in line with FanDuel. Their model projects a UNC win by 6.5 points with the Heels owning a 71.3% chance of taking home the victory.

The BPI also ranks each matchup of the day based on their Matchup Quality measure, and gives the UNC-FSU showdown an 82.8 out of 100, the 11th-highest game of a loaded Saturday slate which features more than 150 D1 contests. Leading the way at No. 1 is Auburn’s road matchup against Mississippi State.

How to watch North Carolina vs. Florida State

Time: 2:00 p.m. ET / 1:00 p.m. CT
Channel: ESPN, FuboTV (streaming)
Location: Dean E. Smith Center | Chapel Hill, North Carolina

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There ain’t two ways around it: Florida State has got to pick up the win vs. North Carolina to salvage their NCAA Tournament hopes. Of course, the path to the tourney isn’t completely impossible with a loss, but it gets much tougher. Tough enough that it’s hard to see the ‘Noles rolling off enough victories in a row to make it happen.

Huge one in Tallahassee today.