Like it or not, streaming-only aspect of Saturday's Notre Dame game is something to get used to

Millions of Notre Dame fans are accustomed to tuning in each fall Saturday to watch the Fighting Irish play on TV.

But fans can’t do that Saturday because the home opener won’t be on traditional television. The only way to watch Notre Dame’s game against Toledo will be on NBCUniversal’s streaming service, Peacock.

Those who subscribe to Peacock (premium content is $4.99 per month) and watch Saturday afternoon won’t just get the Notre Dame-Toledo game but also a window into the future of how fans will consume live sports.

“It’s monumental,” Keith Bank, founder of the Chicago-based venture capital firm KB Partners, which invests largely in companies at the intersection of the streaming and sports betting worlds, told On3. “They (Notre Dame) tend to be a bellwether of some things, and others will probably follow their lead.”

As the cord-cutting movement of the past decade continues to shape the media industry, the migration to direct-to-consumer streaming services forges ahead. A variety of platforms have emerged, including ESPN+, ViacomCBS’ Paramount+ and Peacock, as homes to a treasure trove of sports content. Why the Notre Dame game marks the next step is because it’s a live game featuring an iconic brand that can’t be seen anywhere else. We’re in the middle of an incremental evolution, and the size of the audience for Saturday’s game will reflect where the demand is right now.  

Industry sources expect some premium live games to be broadcast exclusively by streaming services in the coming years. How soon that occurs is the big question and subject to debate, even among those who helped create the current landscape with major media rights deals.

“It will happen — 100 percent,” one prominent TV industry source told On3. “But am I going to see it this year? No. Am I going to see it next year? Probably not. You’re talking three to five years away, when streaming services cross over 60 to 70 million subscriptions.”

Another TV industry source said: “This whole streaming thing — people are relying on it to offset some of the subscription revenue that’s eroded from the linear cable bundle. Take Fox: If it has the rights to 25 games, OK, well, Fox could come up with something that says, ‘We can make a gazillion dollars if we put two games exclusively on streaming.’ OK, they’ll do that, as long as the others are in prime time on broadcast TV. They’ll sacrifice two to make more money. But in terms of every week the top game being on a streaming platform? Not anytime soon.”

Sports always lead new-technology push

The six other Notre Dame home games this season will be broadcast on NBC as well as Peacock. NBC has enjoyed a partnership with the Fighting Irish since 1991, and in recent years, NBC has moved a handful of other Notre Dame games to affiliated networks. NBCSN had games in 2015 (against Boston College at Fenway Park) and in 2017 (a home matchup against Miami of Ohio). Last season, NBC moved the Irish’s game with USF to USA Network, which is owned by NBCUniversal, because of a conflict with the U.S. Open golf tournament.

This summer, Peacock broadcast live premium content during the Olympics, including exclusive coverage of the United States men’s basketball team. Comcast Corporation, which owns NBCUniversal, announced that it closed its second quarter with 54 million “sign-ups” for Peacock but did not specify how many were premium-tier subscribers. Some content is offered for those who sign up for free.

There is pushback from some Fighting Irish fans. On the Fighting Irish Wire, Nick Shepkowski wrote a story about how to sign up for Peacock: “This is anything but an advertisement as I despise (the) fact Notre Dame is only being shown on essentially a pay-per-view service this weekend. … Never has it been so easy to feel so dirty while sitting down to enjoy a Notre Dame football game.”

Saturday’s broadcast, while not nearly as high-profile, stirs memories of 1995, when ESPN offered the Duke-North Carolina men’s basketball game only on its newer network, ESPN2, to help drive its growth. And of 2011, when CBS and Turner began using four networks — CBS, TBS, TNT and TruTV — to televise live NCAA tournament men’s basketball games simultaneously. There was an adjustment by consumers, but they adapted.

More broadly, the first TV source said, over the years as distribution platforms evolved from cable television to satellite to digital to iPads, sports long have led the push for subscribers for one reason: “The early adopters of all this new technology are young males, and young males watch sports. It’s just that simple. This is just the next step in the evolution. You’re going to see ESPN eventually, when they do their new deals, a lot of them saying, ‘Can we put this on ESPN-plus?’ ”

ESPN+ has 14.9 million subscribers, which is up 75 percent from last summer due in large part to the bundle of ESPN+, Hulu and Disney+. The Disney+ platform finished its third quarter by exceeding expectations with 116 million subscribers worldwide. “The reason Disney is trading at $190 a share isn’t because their amusement parks are doing well,” the source said. “It’s because Disney-plus is doing well.”

Live sports content has value

When the iPhone emerged, an older generation wasn’t necessarily comfortable with it. When Internet access moved from dial-up to Wi-Fi, an older generation wasn’t necessarily comfortable with it. When new technologies get introduced, Bank said, it can be daunting and there is a natural hesitancy to change. But virtually all demographics gradually become more comfortable with it.

The streaming audience is expanding. In February, CBS Sports’ broadcast coverage of Super Bowl LV was available via live stream on the CBS All Access subscription service, which was rebranded as Paramount+ in March. Before the Super Bowl, Jeff Gerttula, executive vice president and general manager of CBS Sports Digital, told me that “we know that consumer demand (for streaming) has just been increasing. We’ve seen it through All-Access, where we (had) triple-digit year-over-year growth in overall streams. We are just seeing more of it, and it’s just accelerating.”

And there is inherent value in live sports content. One TV source summed it up by pointing to the change in viewing habits related to entertainment programming. What’s in is binge-watching; what’s out is appointment television. “There is no ‘appointment viewing’ for entertainment property anymore,” the source said. “The last ‘appointment viewing’ on television is sports and news. That’s it. Nobody is going to watch this Notre Dame-Toledo game two days later, right? If you want to watch it, you have to go to the streaming service. That’s what this is all about.”

Where is this headed? The legalization of sports betting in an increasing number of states — particularly related to mobile sports betting — will heighten the demand for live sports on streaming services. Bet on games via your phone while you’re watching the live game via your phone on a streaming platform. And the wait continues for sports betting operators and big tech titans — Amazon, Apple and others — to fully dive into the sports streaming space.

Saturday’s Notre Dame game on Peacock is a small step forward toward that fully immersive scenario, where the mobile device serves as the all-powerful entertainment joystick on college football Saturdays. How long it will take to get there remains an open question.

“Those who have the best platforms, who have the most ubiquitous platforms, I think you’re going to end up being the winner,” said Bank, whose KB Partners is the leading investor in Phenix, a provider of real-time streaming technology. “Five years from now, it will be a totally different landscape.”