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Notre Dame vs. Duke point spread: Picking Fighting Irish vs. Blue Devils

ns_headshot_2024-clearby:Nick Schultz09/27/23

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notre dame duke
Notre Dame quarterback Ian Book runs away from Duke defenders at Wallace Wade Stadium in 2019. (Photo by James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports)

Last week, Notre Dame was left stunned when Chip Trayanum punched in a one-yard touchdown with one second remaining to give Ohio State the 17-14 victory on, essentially, a walk-off. The Fighting Irish now have to travel to Durham on Saturday to take on a tough Duke team in primetime and with College GameDay in attendance once again.

Notre Dame is a 5.5-point favorite in that matchup against Duke, according to FanDuel. But the big question is how Marcus Freeman and the Fighting Irish bounce back from a tough loss that also saw only 10 players on the field for the final two plays.

On3’s Andy Staples thinks Notre Dame is going to be ready to rebound because of the nature of the loss to Ohio State. But the Associated Press’ Ralph Russo took the opposite stance, wondering if Freeman will be able to put that loss — and that blunder — in the past so quickly.

“I’m wondering how you recover from that,” Russo said on Andy Staples On3. “And I will say this, I am taking them points. And if I’m gonna take those points, I might as well, what the hell, pick the upset and pick Duke. … If I’m taking a team playing the biggest home game in the history of the university, you think they’re going to be sky high on this.

“I just got to think that like, they’ll come up with a great effort. So of course, I’m going to take the 5.5 at home. I’m going to take Duke for the win outright.”

How will Notre Dame respond after such a tough loss?

Notre Dame took a lead late in the game against Ohio State. But the Buckeyes capitalized in the fourth quarter to engineer the game-winning drive — capped off by Trayanum’s touchdown. Of course, that came with the Fighting Irish’s 11th player standing on the sidelines.

That mishap was a major talking point this week in the aftermath of the game. Because of that, Russo is wondering how Freeman, in his second year as the head coach, will prepare Notre Dame for a bounce-back performance against Mike Elko and a gritty Duke team.

“This is a great test, as far as I’m concerned, of what kind of a coach — Marcus Freeman has been rightfully crushed this week for what happened. … I think one of the greatest signs of how good a coach you are is coming off of a bad loss, coming off of a heartbreaker, coming off of a situation like that,” Russo said. “How does your team respond?

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“I want to see what Notre Dame does here. If Notre Dame responds well, then I think that’s a great sign for the Fighting Irish. I will take Duke with those points. I will even say that they will pull the upset. I’m not super confident of that. I could see, going by your philosophy, that Notre Dame is really desperate now.”

Marcus Freeman got the Irish ready to bounce back after two bad losses last year

Staples got an up-close look at how Notre Dame handled itself in the immediate aftermath of Saturday’s game. He was in attendance and sat down with Freeman, who took full responsibility for the final play. He also spoke with Audric Estime while on campus.

In those conversations, Staples got the sense the Irish would be ready to fight back. He also compared it to two other bad losses under Freeman. Notre Dame lost to Marshall in its third game. Then, the Fighting Irish fell to Stanford. They finished the season 9-4 with three ranked victories after that.

That, Staples said, gives him confidence Notre Dame will be ready for Duke.

“I’m either cheating or my eyes were lying to me,” Staples said. “Because I was in South Bend on Monday, did get around the Notre Dame people a little bit, around Marcus Freeman, around some of the players. They strike me as a team that will bounce back from this that will be ready. … It’s a very old team. They have a lot of good leadership.

“And Marcus Freeman, you know, he had to do this with Marshall last year. He had to do this with Stanford last year. This is a different level of loss, a different type of loss. But I do think they’ve had some experience dealing with a game you thought you should have won, coming back from that. So I’m going to take Notre Dame. I think they can cover this one. Duke’s gonna give them their best shot. I think it’s competitive.”