Notre Dame vs. USC point spread: Picking Fighting Irish vs. Trojans

A great college football rivalry gets renewed on Saturday on the big stage. USC will travel to South Bend to take on Notre Dame for what should be an intriguing matchup.

The Fighting Irish are the slight favorite at 2.5 points, according to FanDuel. That seems surprising considering the Trojans have the reigning Heisman Trophy winner in Caleb Williams and a high-powered offense. But there are a few factors in play there.

For starters, USC’s defense has struggled this year, allowing 421 total yards per game — which ranks 112th out of 133 FBS teams. Plus, Notre Dame’s at home for what should be an electric atmosphere for yet another prime time game.

So while it might make sense to pick Williams and USC at first glance, former LSU center T-Bob Hebert said it makes sense to take Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish have an offense led by Sam Hartman and a physical defense that couuld give the Trojans headaches, which could be the difference.

“My instinct at first was to just simply trust Caleb Williams because he is the best quarterback in college football and go USC,” Hebert told Andy Staples on Andy Staples On3. “But then, I really started to think about it. And really started to think, what happens to Lincoln Riley teams when they run into physical teams? And there is no doubt that Notre Dame is physical. It feels like when USC runs into Utah or something, right? And then, the USC defense is so soft that I believe that Sam Hartman and this offense should have success.

“So like, yes, Caleb Williams is the best quarterback in the country. But I like Notre Dame in almost every other way. So to me, this one feels pretty heavy Notre Dame, and I’m taking the Irish to cover.”

Why USC presents an opportunity for the Notre Dame offense to bounce back

Notre Dame’s offense has struggled as of late. After averaging 46 points per game through the first four games of the year, the Fighting Irish have been held to 19 points over the last three games, including 20 points in a loss to Louisville last week.

Part of that could be because of the schedule. Notre Dame played three straight ranked matchups at night, including one against Ohio State that came down to the final possession and another against Duke that went the same way. Last week against Louisville, the Fighting Irish got punched in the mouth early and didn’t really seem to bounce back.

There’s been some criticism about the offense, but Staples argued there’s an opportunity to right the ship against a struggling USC defense that has allowed 41 points in the last two games against Colorado and Arizona.

“I am curious to see if Notre Dame’s offense looks more dynamic against USC’s defense,” Staples said. “I suspect that what we’ve seen is a factor of Ohio State has a very good defense, Duke has an incredible defense and very well schemed. Louisville, I don’t know how good Louisville is defensively, but that game was in the worst possible spot for Notre Dame because you’re on the road, you’re at night again, you’ve got USC next week. But this would be the time.

“Notre Dame has a little bit of the the Iowa disease of not being able to have a dynamic receiver. If Jaden Greathouse can play a little more than he did. He was hurt in the Duke game, he was back somewhat for Louisville. But if he can play a little bit, I think they’re going to be alright. I am also going to take Notre Dame in this one to cover because yeah, I think Sam Hartman is gonna have himself a day against that defense. … They might just run him. They might just run it because Arizona, that toss, the only time they stopped that toss was the last two-point conversion.”