November football: College Football Playoff talk, rivalry games and a lot of ‘what if?’
In seven seasons of College Football Playoff Selection Committee rankings, Tennessee has appeared in exactly three, all in 2016, when the Vols climbed as high as No. 16. That’s like being invited to play Bonnaroo and getting assigned the bar at the Holiday Inn in Manchester.
The Vols are on the big stage now. Like so many other events in this wondrous autumn in Knoxville, Tennessee will open one more door Tuesday night that it hasn’t opened in years. Given that four of Tennessee’s eight victories have come against ranked teams, two of them still ranked (No. 6 Alabama and No. 15 LSU), there’s a decent chance that the Vols will be No. 1 in the season’s first College Football Playoff rankings.
Someone guard the goalposts.
The first CFP rankings of 2022 arrive on the same day as November, as if anyone needed a reminder that this is the month of stretch runs and Heisman sprints, of no shaves and close shaves, of turkey and heroes.
The No. 1 team in the first ranking has gone on to make the CFP field in six of seven seasons. But maybe we shouldn’t read too much into that ranking – the No. 2 team in the initial ranking has made it to the field six times, too. The first No. 4 has made it five times.
Psst, No. 3 – start worrying. The third-ranked team in the initial ranking has reached the CFP only twice and has yet to win a national championship.
All of which is to tell us that the beauty of the first CFP ranking is there’s plenty of room for dreamers, for the teams who can dominate for seven games but not 13.
Anyone remember that Mississippi State stood atop the very first CFP ranking in 2014? Among the others who began that November as contenders were Ole Miss, TCU, Baylor and Arizona State. Those first four Playoff berths went to Alabama, Oregon, Florida State and Ohio State. The Crimson Tide (six of seven playoffs) and the Buckeyes (four) stick around until the end. The Ducks and the Seminoles do not.
But look! There’s Oregon lurking at No. 8, the highest-ranked Pac-12 team in the AP poll released Sunday. How the CFP selection committee members view Oregon – or, more accurately, the Ducks’ 49-3 loss to Georgia in Week One – will give us a good view of their thinking as we head into November. Oregon has rebounded to win seven consecutive games, six by at least two touchdowns, albeit against a cottony schedule. Wins against the two ranked teams in that stretch, BYU and UCLA, came at Autzen Stadium. (And BYU no longer is ranked.)
No. 7 TCU (8-0) has reached November unbeaten and it may soothe the Hypnotoads on the west side of the Metroplex to know that no unbeaten Power 5 team has failed to make the CFP. The Horned Frogs have beaten four ranked teams. More important, with consecutive games at Texas and at Baylor looming, TCU is 4-0 on the road.
Less soothing is the record of Sonny Dykes’ teams in November. In his 12-year career, he is 60-35 on or before Halloween – and 18-25 in the next 30 days. And to think his birthday is a week from Wednesday.
Ole Miss will come off a bye week on November 12 and play Alabama. If the Crimson Tide wins at LSU on Saturday night, Ole Miss could win out and, as God is my witness, play in the SEC Championship Game for the first time in the game’s 31 seasons of existence. It would help the Rebels a great deal if Alabama can beat LSU for the 11th time in 12 meetings. LSU, which beat Ole Miss 45-20, also can win out and win the West. With two losses, the Tigers will need an extraordinary amount of help to reach the CFP, something no two-loss team has done.
Illinois plays at No. 4 Michigan on November 19, and if the Illini win the Big Ten West, they would play the Michigan-Ohio State winner in Lucas Oil Stadium for the conference championship two weeks later. Those of us conditioned to scoff at the chance that Illinois might actually pull this off would do well to remember that the media picked the Illini to finish sixth in the Big Ten West. Scoff at your own risk.
The media also picked Tennessee third in the SEC East.
The deeper we get into November, as the storied rivalry games come into focus, the more teams will fall away from playoff contention. History tells us that the Georgia-Tennessee and Michigan-Ohio State losers have a chance of making the playoff – Alabama won the national championship in 2017 despite missing the SEC Championship Game. The losers could finish 11-1 and, barring complete collapses by the winners, not have to risk a second loss in their conference championship games.
That sets up the scenario in which those four teams make the College Football Playoff – two from the SEC, two from the Big Ten. If you’re looking for a way to goose the commissioners into getting a 12-team Playoff ready for 2024, that’s your answer.