Numbers game: Projecting 2022’s 1,000-yard rushers

A good portion of every offseason, no matter the sport, is spent projecting how teams will do. Every fan in every sport knows the drill: Can that team finish first in its division? Can this team avoid a last-place finish? Who makes the playoffs?

Today, we’re doing some individual projections, specifically predicting who will be 1,000-yard rushers this season.

Over the past five full seasons (not counting the COVID-ravaged fall of 2020), there have been an average of 60.4 1,000-yard rushers each season. The high was 70 in 2016; the low was 53 last season.

Here’s the prediction of this season’s 1,000-yard rushers, listed alphabetically by league. And just because a team isn’t listed doesn’t mean it won’t be productive on the ground: Numerous teams have a liberal share-the-wealth policy at running back, and it’s tough to get to 1,000 if you only have 140 or so carries.

Also of note: Players denoted with an asterisk were 1,000-yard rushers last season.

AAC (4)

East Carolina: Keaton Mitchell*. ECU is a program on the rise in the conference, and Mitchell is one of the reasons.

Memphis: Jay Ducker*. Ducker, a transfer from Northern Illinois, was the freshman of the year in the MAC last season.

Tulane: Tyjae Spears. Spears had three consecutive 100-yard games (including a 264-yarder) to end the 2021 season.

Tulsa: Deneric Prince. Prince, who began his career at Texas A&M, should be the feature back with the departure of 1,000-yard rusher Shamari Brooks.

ACC (4)

Boston College: Patrick Garwo III*. With QB Phil Jurkovec healthy, the passing attack will be better and Garwo won’t be running against stacked boxes anymore.

Clemson: Will Shipley. Shipley is dynamic as a runner and can become a dangerous receiver, too.

Louisville: Malik Cunningham*. The best dual-threat quarterback in the nation?

Syracuse: Sean Tucker*. He ran for 1,496 yards last season with zero help from the passing game.

Big Ten (7)

Illinois: Chase Brown*. He had two 200-yard outings last season.

Michigan: Blake Corum. He shared carries with Hassan Haskins last season and will be the lead guy this season.

Michigan State: Jarek Broussard. The Spartans got a star turn from a transfer running back last season (Kenneth Walker III). Broussard, from Colorado, won’t be as productive, though.

Minnesota: Mo Ibrahim. He was lost for the season in Game 1 last season, but ran for 1,076 yards and 15 TDs (in seven games!) in 2020.

Northwestern: Cam Porter. He missed all of last season with what the school called a “lower-body injury” after looking like a future star in 2020.

Ohio State: Tre’Veyon Henderson*. One of the nation’s best freshmen last season will be one of the nation’s top sophomores this season.

Wisconsin: Braelon Allen*. Like Henderson, Allen was a freshman star last season. Look for 1,500-plus yards from Allen this season.

Big 12 (4)

Iowa State: Jirehl Brock. All he has to do is adequately replace Breece Hall.

Kansas State: Deuce Vaughn*. Small guy (5 feet 6, 176) is going to put up big numbers again.

Oklahoma: Eric Gray. There will be a committee approach at running back, but Gray figures to get the most carries in new OC Jeff Lebby’s offense.

Texas: Bijan Robinson*. The nation’s most talented running back? He has speed and power.

Conference USA (4)

North Texas: Ikaika Ragsdale. Ragsdale had three 100-yard games as a reserve last season.

UAB: DeWayne McBride*. McBride’s 6.22-yards-per-carry average was second-best (by .01 yards, behind Toledo’s Bryant Koback) nationally last season among the 39 backs who had at least 200 carries.

UTEP: Ronald Awatt. He will be a sixth-year senior this fall for the Miners.

UTSA: Trelon Smith. The Arkansas transfer will be tasked with replacing two-time 1,000-yard rusher Sincere McCormick, a former C-USA player of the year.

Independents (2)

BYU: Chris Brooks. The Cal transfer (he was known for three of his four seasons there as Chris Brown) has to replace Tyler Allgeier, who ran for 1,606 yards and 23 TDs last season.

UMass: Ellis Merriweather*. As bad as UMass was last season, Merriweather still ran for 1,138 yards.

Mid-American (4)

Ball State: Carson Steele. Steele emerged as a workhorse during the second half of his true freshman season last year.

Central Michigan: Lew Nichols III*. The nation’s leading returning rusher. Can he get to the 1,800-yard mark again?

Kent State: Marquez Cooper*. The Golden Flashes’ offense is incredibly potent, and Cooper is one of the main reasons.

Western Michigan: Sean Tyler*. The Broncos’ passing attack doesn’t figure to be as productive this season, so Tyler should be the offensive focal point.

Mountain West (6)

Air Force: Brad Roberts*. He was third nationally with 297 carries last season and should be almost as busy this season.

Boise State: George Holani. He ran for 1,000 as a freshman in 2019 but has battled injuries the past two season.

Fresno State: Jordan Mims. Mims ran for 710 yards last season as the No. 2 back, and he’ll be the lead dog this season.

Nevada: Toa Taua. A new coaching staff means there will be fewer passes this season, and that should benefit Taua.

Utah State: Calvin Tyler Jr. The Aggies were the surprise league champ last season, and Tyler helped them win the title.

Wyoming: Titus Swen. Swen, who has an incredible back story, will be the lead back this season for a program that loves to run the ball.

Pac-12 (5)

Arizona State: Xazavian Valladay*. Wyoming transfer (he’s the No. 2 rusher in Cowboys history) figures to get a heavy workload

Oregon: Byron Cardwell. Cardwell ascends into the No. 1 back role this season.

UCLA: Zach Charbonnet*. He’s a good fit in Chip Kelly’s offense and a big season looms.

USC: Travis Dye*. Oregon transfer should put up good numbers in Lincoln Riley’s offense.

Utah: Tavion Thomas*. He’s a great fit for the Utes’ power-rushing attack.

SEC (6)

Alabama: Jahmyr Gibbs. He ran for 1,206 yards in his two seasons at Georgia Tech; he will top that figure this season.

Auburn: Tank Bigsby*. He had five 100-yard games last season.

Kentucky: Chris Rodriguez Jr.* He is 1,134 yards away from becoming UK’s leading career rusher; he ran for 1,379 last season.

Ole Miss: Zach Evans. TCU transfer has immense talent, and if he is fully invested, he could go for 1,500-plus.

Tennessee: Jabari Small. He came on strong down the stretch last season and will get more work this season.

Texas A&M: Devon Achane. He ran for 910 last season as the Aggies’ No. 2 running back.

Sun Belt (7)

Appalachian State: Nate Noel* and Camerun Peoples. App State has had 1,000-yard rushers in each of the past eight seasons. It was Noel last season and Peoples in 2020. Both will get there this season (Peoples was 74 yards shy last season).

Georgia State: Tucker Gregg. Gregg and Jamyest Williams (who began his career at South Carolina as a defensive back) form an effective and productive duo.

Louisiana: Chris Smith. There’s a new coach and a revamped roster, and Smith figures to get the bulk of the carries in an offense that relies heavily on its backs.

Marshall: Rasheen Ali*. He’s the nation’s fourth-leading returning rusher (1,401 yards), and he tied for the national lead with 23 rushing TDs last season.

Old Dominion: Blake Watson*. ODU has two top-notch offensive players: Watson and stud TE Zack Kuntz.

Southern Miss: Frank Gore Jr. He carried a big load for a putrid offense last season; the offense will be better this season and the son of the NFL’s No. 3 career rusher will benefit.