Race for No. 1, highest upside: On3 experts break down 2023 rankings

A prospect’s junior season is typically the impactful as it relates to their recruitment. Now that we’re well into the season, we’ve seen a number of top juniors emerge. With that in mind, On3 released an updated and expanded On300 for the 2023 cycle last week.

Director of Scouting and Rankings Charles Power and Senior National Recruiting Analyst Gerry Hamilton tackle seven burning questions surrounding the 2023 rankings.

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What are your thoughts on the race for No. 1?

Power: At this stage, the 2023 cycle is stronger at premium positions like quarterback, EDGE and offensive tackle than 2022. There are several prospects within the top ten of the 2023 On300 who would contend for the No. 1 spot in some cycles. But right now, I feel good about quarterbacks Arch Manning ( No. 1) and Malachi Nelson (No. 2) at the top.

We’ve watched Manning play a ton as a junior. He may have some bumpy moments at times, but the talent is a constant and readily apparent. I think his physical progression is undersold as well. Arch Manning is the most physically-developed quarterback in the 2023 cycle right now. Out in California, Nelson continues to show his advanced feel and skill set as a passer. If Manning and Nelson continue at their current trajectory, I think their biggest challenges would be more likely to come from within the quarterback group, rather than at other positions. Development is not linear, but at this rate it appears to be a strong quarterback cycle at the top.

Hamilton: I think some contenders will definitely pop up to challenge Arch Manning as the number one prospect. My guy is probably not the one that everyone would answer. It’s EDGE Nyckoles Harbor (No. 8) from Archbishop Carroll in Washington D.C.

Look, when you have a prospect that’s 6-foot-4, 6-foot-5, over 220 pounds and has posted 10.38 (100 meters) and 21.3 (200 meters) on the track…with that length – you are dealing with a special athlete. And we don’t throw around that term often. Just watching him track the ball at receiver. The dexterity and agility to go with the speed and the frame. He’s one that I’m looking at long-term where people may say, “hmm…this guy reminds me of Jevon Kearse. Could he be the next Freak?” He’s the guy that I could see challenging for No. 1 long-term.

What non-quarterbacks do you see with the highest upside?

Power: I start with the pass rushers. There are three EDGE prospects who currently sit within the top ten – Notre Dame commit Keon Keeley (No. 5), Lebbeus Overton (No. 7) and Nyckoles Harbor (No. 8). Overton is probably more of a high-floor type than the other two, but still has considerable upside and is among the more well-established pass rushers in high school football.

We saw Keeley’s considerable ability on display last week in a nationally-televised game against Arch Manning. He pairs exceptional length with plus athleticism and flexibility to create a bunch of problems off the edge. Keeley is having a phenomenal junior year as well with 12.5 sacks and 23.5 tackles for loss. He was compared to Kayvon Thibodaux during the ESPN broadcast and I can see the resemblance from a dimensions and coordination perspective. Harbor is still raw and unrefined but has the most athletic upside of any prospect in this cycle. The track bona fides and unique dimensions are well documented. I’m looking to see how he progresses technically over the next year along with playing against some better competition on the camp circuit or in all-star games.

Hamilton: After Harbor, I’m going to go with offensive tackle Zalance Heard (No. 15). We have him higher than everyone else and I think there’s still a little bit of an unknown. You’re dealing with a prospect who is over 6-foot-5, 295 pounds, an 84, 85-inch wing-span. He’s a guy that is athletic enough for really good programs to consider a defensive tackle early in the process. Just his upside and where it could go is very intriguing.

Who has done the most to help their ranking as a junior?

Power: While he was already ranked in the top 30, defensive tackle Peter Woods (No. 17) is having a big junior season. Woods has taken his game to another level and is flying around the field. Woods may not have overly unique size or length, but the athleticism and quickness look to be off the charts on video. He looks like an attacking 3-technique at the next level.

It’s also good to see Francis Mauigoa (No. 19) playing along the offensive line for IMG. Mauigoa was primarily seen as a defensive lineman as a freshman, but it’s becoming more evident his long-term upside is on offense. The 6-foot-5, 320-pounder is playing very well against top competition in his first full-time action at the position. He also missed his sophomore season in California with their fall season pushed back to the spring due to COVID-19.

Hamilton: I think it’s Keon Keeley for us. Charles was on him early. He’s just made a lot of plays. Keeley is being very productive and there’s so much more that he could get out of his ability. There are some better pure athletes than him, but I’m not sure how many are better players. He’s just scratching the surface. I think Keon Keeley has helped himself more than anyone else.

Who surprised you the most in going through junior seasons and video?

Power: Top offensive tackle Zalance Heard was a literal surprise for me. I was watching Neville play St. Thomas More and LSU commit Walker Howard and instantly thought, “who is this massive right tackle?” He had a few monster blocks on some long gains and I had stop watching the game to look him up. It turns out Heard had transferred to Neville and converted from defensive tackle. I thought his game film was outstanding. Then we got some verified measurements (6-foot-5.5, 295 pounds, 36-inch arms) which further confirms Heard’s immense upside. It’s not every day you happen upon an offensive tackle with five-star potential, so that was nice.

We came into this update looking for top offensive linemen to emerge and several did. I was really impressed with Markis Deal (No. 28) on video. Deal is an explosive mover and makes a bunch of big plays on both sides of the ball. We ultimately see him as an interior offensive lineman. Jven Williams (No. 43) is another who was an increasingly pleasant surprise. He has strong video as a drive blocker and puller at the second level. Then it turns out he’s an elite thrower in the shot put, has verified length (34-inch arms) and is young for the class. Things kept getting better the more and more we dug on Williams’ athletic profile and background.

Hamilton: I’m going to say Cedric Baxter Jr. (No. 45). We were wondering if there’s a truly great running back prospect in this class. We like Rueben Owens (No. 47) and we like Richard Young (No. 58), but we weren’t sure if they are true five-star type running backs. I think Cedric Baxter’s frame (6-foot-1, 210 pounds), his speed, what we’ve seen on junior video stands out. He’s gone from carrying the ball under 100 times as a sophomore to one who has carried it 40+ times in a game this year. He had a 300-yard game. That’s against some of the best teams he’s played. I look at him as the guy that pleasantly surprised me because it’s a position that we know doesn’t have its normal depth. Nobody was a lock to be the number one running back and I think we might’ve found him.

What position battle is the most intriguing?

Power: The two most intriguing position battles for me are quarterback and EDGE. We’ll likely be talking about Arch Manning vs. Malachi Nelson for a few years. Does someone like Nicholaus Iamaleava (No. 10) or Dante Moore (No. 20) enter that fray? At EDGE, Keon Keeley is rapidly ascending, Lebbeus Overton is an established dominant player and Nyckoles Harbor has extreme upside.

Since we’ve already discussed those two positions, my next most intriguing battle would be at tight end. Duce Robinson (No. 29) out of Phoenix was arguably the top skill player at The Opening Finals, turning in a breakout performance against many of the nation’s best. He doubles as a Major League prospect on the diamond and the athleticism is obvious. Robinson has a huge catch radius and has the look of a top tight end prospect.

Duce Robinson might get a challenge from another prospect out West in Portland’s Riley Williams (No. 34). We were very impressed with Williams’ junior video. He’s dominating at the catch point and coming down with impressive one-handed grabs while also showing ability after the catch. We also see Williams make plays on defense as a pass rusher. Both Robinson and Williams are big, athletic targets in the pass game. It should be fun to track those two over the next year.

Hamilton: Mine is wide receiver. In 2022, it’s an unbelievable class at wide receiver. There’s something like 60 receivers we see as blue-chip level talents. But in 2023, I think it’s still up in the air who’s going to be the top guy. Shelton Sampson Jr. (No. 11) is our top receiver right now, but I don’t think he’s a lock. Zachariah Branch (No. 14) reminds us of Jaylen Waddle. Does he have the great ball skills? That remains to be seen. Carnell Tate (No. 18) isn’t going to test like Shelton Sampson, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t the best receiver in the class. Jalen Brown (No. 24) out of Gulliver Prep in Miami is really talented, too. I look at wide receiver as the position where there are more questions at the top of the rankings than in prior classes.

What geographic areas are strong in this class? What schools stand to benefit?

Power: Florida and Alabama are the two states that really jump out as strong in the 2023 cycle. We’ve known about the crazy amount of blue-chip defensive linemen from Alabama in 2023 for a while, but if anything, we’ve seen more blue-chippers at other positions emerge. With 19 prospects in the On300, it’s safe to say the Yellowhammer State is loaded in 2023. In addition to Alabama, I look at in-state Auburn and Clemson as two schools who could benefit there.

I was taken aback at the number of blue-chip receivers in Florida. It seemed like a new one kept popping up every five minutes as we were putting the On300 together. There’s something like 15 four-star receivers from the Sunshine State. We’ve seen the state of Florida become more open to out-of-state powers in the last five to ten years. None of Florida, Florida State and Miami are at their peak right now. If any of the Big Three want to get back to winning championships, landing some of these in-state playmakers would be a start.

Hamilton: The state of Alabama. This is the best class of big men I’ve seen out of that state in my years of doing this. Alabama, Georgia and maybe Auburn are going to benefit in the state. There’s so many 6-foot3, 6-foot-4, 6-foot-5, big-time players along the defensive line that Nick Saban can’t take them all. Kirby Smart can’t take them all. Whoever comes in and hangs around the rim on these recruitments early is going to be in position to really benefit. And I think the depth in that state goes beyond the EDGEs and defensive linemen. It’s at safety and all over the place. I think whoever in the neighboring states can come in and evaluate the state of Alabama is going to do very well.

Which prospects do you expect to blow up with offers?

Power: EDGE Adepoju Adebawore is sitting at around three Power 5 offers right now and I’d expect that to change. He’s a dynamic pass rusher with a bunch of athletic upside. Adebawore is on a defensive line at North Kansas City with two other Power 5 prospects in Dominic Orange and Edric Hill. He’s looked like the clear top prospect among that bunch, in our opinion. It doesn’t hurt that Adebawore’s older brother is among the best players on Northwestern’s defense.

Hamilton: One that we have ranked high and I saw last week is wide receiver Ryan Niblett (No. 70). If he posts the numbers on the track that his staff expects – if he gets into that 10.6 (100 meters) range and triple jumps 49 feet – he is going to be sitting near 30 offers by the time spring football starts. Right now he’s at seven. I think he’s going to add 20+ offers. He’s productive on the field with 20 touchdowns in eight games and has shown some toughness with around 400 yards rushing. He’s also an arms-extended, natural plucker as a pass catcher at slot receiver. I think Ryan Niblett going to get a ton of offers moving forward.