Picking No. 1: On3 experts break down 2024 rankings

On3 has released its initial On300 football prospect rankings for the 2024 cycle last week. The On300 builds upon the initial Top 100 Watchlist that was released during the fall.

Initial 2024 On300

With the 2024 On300 now released, On3 Director of Scouting and Rankings Charles Power and Senior National Recruiting Analyst Gerry Hamilton take you behind the curtain in answering questions surrounding the rankings.

What made Dylan Raiola the choice for the No. 1 prospect?

Charles Power: Dylan Raiola‘s arm talent, production and overall advanced skill at the position set him apart among the other top quarterbacks at this stage. Raiola makes some really high-level reactive plays in the face of pressure. He has a natural, quick arm and shows some impressive feel and field vision for a rising junior. I knew Raiola was a top arm talent off of following him during the fall, but was pleasantly surprised by the movement skills and creativity after doing a deeper dive on his sophomore season. He also looks equally comfortable working within the structure of the offense. Raiola has worked from under center, easily flips the ball out to the perimeter in the quick game and has some technical refinement that’s ahead of the curve.

Gerry Hamilton: I think first off, you have to look at his production as a sophomore. He made big-time throws on Friday nights and did it under duress. He didn’t turn the ball over – he made winning plays and showed really good accuracy on tape. Then when you get to the workout settings, I just think he throws the ball from all the platforms. He has good feet in the pocket, he has good awareness, you can just tell he understands the game. I think he checks all the boxes and he has the size.

Read more about Raiola’s recent visit to USC

Was it a difficult decision to settle on Raiola at No. 1?

Power: We try to enter all of the rankings with an open mind and I think that was the case here as well. I wasn’t sure who we were going to with at No. 1. The deeper we got into the process, it became pretty obvious that Dylan Raiola was the clear choice for the top spot right now. First off, we thought he is a little ahead of the other top quarterbacks right now. Additionally, some of the other premium positions aren’t as flush with five-star candidates as past cycles, making the decision all the more easier.

Hamilton: I think it was an easy call, actually. Looking back on it, I think we both agreed he was the No. 1 guy. We didn’t really have an argument why he wasn’t the No. 1 guy. That’s rare in a class. I think he was a consensus choice, without hesitation.

What went into choosing the other two five-stars?

Power: Desmond Ricks (No. 2) and Justin Scott (No. 3) are actually at different points in their development. Ricks is a big cornerback who has been on the national radar for several years at this point. Ricks is seasoned and battle-tested from facing top competition at IMG Academy both in practice and against a national schedule in the fall. He’s tested as a strong athlete and was one of the better players on the most talented defense in high school football last fall. Ricks is a high floor prospect due to his level of development but also has a considerable ceiling due to his physical gifts.

Conversely, Scott played his first year of varsity football last fall at Chicago St. Ignatius. He immediately jumps out as a big, nimble athlete. Scott’s movement skills at 6-foot-5, 310 pounds separate him among the defensive line group at this stage. He carries his weight very well and runs sideline-to-sideline. You can see his backgrounds as a basketball and soccer player carrying over to the football field. Scott is still developing, but these rankings are long-term projections and his ceiling looks to be high.

Hamilton: I think Desmond Ricks, aside from what you see on tape, I think he’s tested really well and has done so as he’s come up as a high school prospect. At his height, with his length, ability to run and with the change of direction and after he tested extremely well at the IMG Pro Day, I don’t think there was any hesitation in making him a five-star in a class where we had to discuss how many five-stars we would make in the first ranking.

Justin Scott is light on his feet – a bouncy, big kid. When you watch him, I don’t think there’s any doubt the way he moves and bends, the ankle flexion – all those things added up to a guy that has an extremely high ceiling as a player. That’s not to say he isn’t already a good player on Friday nights, but his best football is way in front of him. When you see the balance, the athleticism, the ability to change direction, the length, the frame and where it’s going to go, it kind of reminded me of A’Shawn Robinson when I first saw him as a young player in Fort Worth.

Read about Ricks and Scott’s recruitments here.

What’s your take on the quarterback group?

Power: The quarterback group looks to be one of the strongest positions in the cycle at this stage – which is not always the case this early in the process. Raiola is the headliner, but there’s already some depth emerging among top 100 type prospects. We like Jake Merklinger (No. 24) the more and more we watched. He’s a functional athlete and accurate passer who makes reactive plays. It’s easy to see his three-sport background transfer over to the field. Jayden Bradford (No. 28) has impressed with his arm talent and looks like a plus athlete at the position. Josh Flowers (No. 31) has one of the higher physical ceilings among the group with his high-end arm strength and ability as a power runner. CJ Carr (No. 35) has had a very good offseason to this point and has shown a quick arm. That’s just a quick sampling of some top 100 quarterbacks. The 2024 quarterback cycle is definitely showing some positive signs early on.

Hamilton: I think quarterback group is actually really strong. We talked about Raiola. I think Josh Flowers (No. 31) has high-end arm talent. Tore he’s out throwing the football, I think colleges will watch him throw in the spring and instantly offer, because he has functional athleticism at the position. DJ Lagway (No. 33) has all the offers. Having seen him play twice in person, I get it. He’s a 6-foot-2, 215 pound kid who can move. He has the arm talent. He has the quick release as a baseball kid. I think the quarterback group is really good and really deep early on. You go up and down the list and there’s 10, 15 quarterbacks that you think could be all top 150 or top 200 type prospects in the country.

Introducing the 2024 cycle’s top quarterback prospects

Who are some prospects you expect to add more offers in the coming weeks and months?

Power: There’s always a ton of these prospects in early rankings as college programs are still in the discovery and evaluation phases this early in the cycle. I would be surprised if safety Ricardo Jones (No. 30) doesn’t blow up to be a national prospect. The Warner Robins (Ga.) Northside safety has some fantastic sophomore video, pairing coverage ability (8 interceptions) and size at 6-foot-3, 190 pounds. Jonathan Daniels (No. 32) ranks as one of our top offensive linemen and is waiting on his first Power 5 offer. That will change as his sophomore video is very strong. Jakhari Williams (No. 97) is one of the more physically-gifted quarterbacks we’ve evaluated so far. He’s spent much of the offseason playing basketball. He currently has offers from Georgia Southern and Georgia State, but should start to see them roll in perhaps as early as this spring.

Hamilton: Mario Buford (No. 22) is an easy one. After his impressive showing at the Under Armour Camp in Dallas, he’s performing well on the track this spring. When the feet are on the ground in the spring evaluation period and coaches are coming through DeSoto, I think he’s going to pick up 10+ offers in the spring. Another one is Loghan Thomas (No. 23). I think he only has Texas Tech right now. He’s one that will have double-digit offers by the end of the evaluation period. When colleges go out and see the frame, his length, the way he moves and reacts, he’ll be an easy offer for those programs.

On3 Outliers: 2024 football recruits On3 ranks higher than industry

Which position group do you think is the strongest?

Hamilton: I think defensive back is a really strong position. When you consider there’s three corners in the top 10 of the On300, you instantly know that cornerback class is going to be really good at the top. It’s also deep as you get further down. I think safety is really good as well. KJ Bolden(No. 11) is the number one safety, but there’s other that are going to challenge for the top spot. There’s sleepers at safety like Ricardo Jones at No. 30. I say he’s a sleeper because he hasn’t had a lot of national attention yet, but he’s 6-foot-3, 190 with ball skills and can run and close on the football. You go up and down both positions and there’s a lot of depth and versatility.

Power: We typically see the skill positions pop earlier than ones that require the most physical development (the line of scrimmage). With that said, I think wide receiver is probably the deepest group at this stage. We felt good about tabbing 30 wide receivers as four-stars at this stage. I believe that’s the most at any position. Prospects like Micah Hudson (No. 6), Joshisa Trader (No. 13), Ny Carr (No. 18), Ryan Wingo (No. 20) and Ryan Pellum (No. 27) have already shown advanced skills and produced at a high level on Friday nights. Wide receiver is a true skill position that prioritizes technicality and coordination that tends to reveal itself earlier than other spots.

Which position group is a work in progress?

Power: I think it’s almost always offensive line by default at this stage. Many top offensive line prospects begin their high school careers at other positions. Many of the top offensive linemen in the 2023 cycle were considered defensive line prospects to start. It’s the most physically developmental position, by far. I think we’ll also see more linebackers emerge over time. Linebacker has evolved into an “athlete” position in that many top future linebackers are multi-positional athletes who might not be a traditional linebacker at the high school level. We see a ton of running backs and big safeties end up as linebacker prospects nowadays. So I wouldn’t be surprised to see those types emerge at linebacker over the next year or so.

Hamilton: I’m going to say running back. It’s going to be interesting to see who emerges during the spring and next season. In the 24 cycle, we’ve already established that it’s not the best class at the top right now. The fact there’s not a running back in the top 20, that position looks to be a little down, compared to some of the past years. There’s not a lot of running back body types that have tested well, have good tape and good stats. It’s going to be interesting to see where the running back position goes. You have a really highly-ranked kid like Stacy Gage (No. 55) who hasn’t tested well. I think there’s a number of running backs like that in this class and it makes the position more of a mystery than a known right now.

Who’s a prospect you’ve seen in person who has impressed?

Hamilton: Jeremy Payne, the running back out of Hightower in Missouri City is one we have at No. 100. The running back position isn’t very strong right now, but he’s one that could emerge in that group. He put up over 1,500 yards, maybe 1,800 with the playoffs. He catches the ball really well and is a major league prospect. I’m going to also say a receiver I saw recently in Elijah Baesa (No. 103) out of North Mesquite. His teammate Cordale Russell is a receiver in the 2022 On300. I had not seen Baesa in person before and walked away thinking he was the most natural receiver on a pretty talented team. Baesa caught the back half the ball a few times, there was no rounding off his routes, he was fluid in his movements and really just had the ability to track the ball while selling the route. I expect him to rise nationally as more college see him in May.

Power: Florida State running back commit Kameron Davis (No. 37) impressed me at the Under Armour Camp in Atlanta. Davis has a compact build at 5-foot-9.5, 205 pounds and really excelled as a pass catcher in that setting. He was quick off the line and gave linebackers serious issues in 1-on-1’s. You do not always see top running backs catch the ball naturally in the camp setting, but that wasn’t an issue with Davis. He plays quarterback at Albany (Ga.) Dougherty and it’s easy to see his overall coordination cross over to running back.

Which geographic areas look strong at this stage?

Hamilton: For years and years, Dade, Broward and Palm Beach (in Florida) were considered the three most talented neighboring counties in the country for high school football prospects. I think that still may be the case, but if you look at where people are moving, Dallas-Fort Worth and the Atlanta area are just loaded. If you look at basketball rankings, it’s the same. There is so much talent in those areas right now, more so than I can remember in my years in this business. The difference between the greater Atlanta area and DFW is there’s more big bodies in Atlanta. You can look at every position on the football field and find a national recruit in the greater Atlanta area. I think that’s especially true in the 2024 class in Atlanta, already.

Power: It’s the state of Georgia for me. 2024 looks to like a banner cycle in the Peach State. There’s a ton of national prospects from Georgia who have already emerged. When we were putting this ranking together, it seemed like every other prospect in the top 100 was from Georgia. Most of these prospects are already on the national radar and are garnering tons of college attention. It’s just that loaded this early. I’m not sure the 2023 cycle is that great in Georgia, but 2024 looks to be outstanding.

What’s the hardest part about putting this early ranking together?

Power: Early rankings are often the most challenging for a number of reasons. For one, it’s the furthest out projection. We’re ranking prospects off of their sophomore seasons and are looking to forecast several years down the line. It’s more about how we view these prospects turning out after two more years of high school football than who may be the best player as a 10th grader. Players are also at varying degrees in development. Some are just turning 15 years old while others are 17, going on 18. Some are new to football. Shoot, there are some prospects who will probably end up in the final On300 for this class who haven’t started football yet. We see that every cycle. We try to factor all of these variables into the equation, while also placing an emphasis on what prospects have shown on Friday nights against varsity competition.

Hamilton: I think he hardest part with putting together this list is when there’s a class that doesn’t instantly look great with a lot of guys in the discussion as five-stars. It’s easier to ask how many five-stars should we have when there are a lot of options as opposed to looking for five-stars. I think that makes for a tough class. Also how many do you see as four-stars this early? I think that number in this class was probably a little lower than some previous classes. There’s so much time for growth for these kids and there’s also time for some to level out. The thing you don’t want to do in these rankings is rank too many as four-stars and pull them back when others will definitely emerge. We all know from being in this business a long time that the offensive line is the last position to emerge. Offensive linemen pop up and physically mature later.