On3 5-star outliers: Why they're ranked higher than the industry

There are few sure things when it comes to high school football prospects. Some simply jump off the screen — a la Michael Oher in The Blind Side. But when it comes to the majority of recruits, there is rarely a true consensus on where they project as a college and potential pro prospect, even with some of the country’s best.

In some cases, prospects who dominate at the high school level simply don’t translate well to the college game. With more and more available data than any time before, the recruiting industry works to forecast not only who stands out now, but who will star on Saturdays and Sundays in the future.

That often leads to disparities and outliers in the rankings process, especially if any given recruiting service values prep production over what their next-level projection is. With On3’s Industry Comparison, we’ve provided a way to see which prospects have differentiated themselves in the mind of each of the four major recruiting services: On3, 247Sports, Rivals and ESPN.

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In the 2023 cycle, eight prospects rank as five-stars solely with On3. Their production at the high school level, as well as their physical measurables and camp performances have put them in elite company. With the help of Charles Power, On3’s Director of Scouting and Rankings, we break down each of the On3 5-star outliers in this class:

EDGE Damon Wilson

On3 Ranking: No. 4
Industry Comparison (Next highest: No. 39, 247Sports)
On3’s Take: “We think Venice (Fla.) EDGE Damon Wilson has some of, if not the best bend of any pass-rusher in this cycle. He is highly productive at the highest level of high school football in the state of Florida. He had 15 sacks for a state championship team as a junior. He has very strong first step, the ability to dip and bend around the edge, and he’s a flexible athlete. His hand placement in very technical, and he’s really strong in the upper body with an over 400-pound bench. So I think when we look at what is a pretty strong class of EDGE prospects, his skillset as a pass-rusher really translates well you when you look at college and the NFL.” — On3 Director of Scouting and Rankings Charles Power

OT Charles Jagusah – Notre Dame commit

On3 Ranking: No. 6
Industry Comparison (Next highest: No. 25, 247Sports)
On3’s Take: “We’ve had Rock Island (Ill.) Alleman’s Charles Jagusah ranked as the top offensive lineman in this cycle for a year now. And he’s really just grown into a true offensive lineman over his junior season, and that’s where he projects now at offensive tackle. What we really liked about him was the movement skills, flexibility and coordination, and his balance. The functional athleticism he shows on both his sophomore and junior film was what caught our eye and why we had him as the No. 1 offensive lineman. The more information we get about him, the more he moves up. He’s one of the top heavyweight wrestlers in the Midwest — 41-0 as a junior. As with all linemen, the vitals and measurables are important. He checks the boxes there, too. 11-inch hand, and over 34-inch arm, so he has it all from that standpoint.” — On3 Director of Scouting and Rankings Charles Power

EDGE Adepoju Adebawore – Oklahoma commit

On3 Ranking: No. 7
Industry Comparison (Next highest: No. 48, 247Sports)
On3’s Take: Kansas City (Mo.) North EDGE Adepoju Adebawore is one we’ve been higher on than anyone else for a little more than a year. He is just extremely twitchy; probably has an argument as the twitchiest pass-rusher in the cycle. The burst, the athleticism just pops off the video. He has exceptional length — over a 7-foot wingspan. And you combine that with the athleticism, and not just on video; he tests well also. You see him moving around, and he just stands out at events with other blue-chip prospects. Highly productive player as a junior with 16.5 sacks, and he’s still figuring it out. So I think with him, it’s just all about the upside and how rapidly he seems to be improving. Once he gets some technical work with pass-rush moves, he projects as a difference-maker off the edge at the college level and has considered upside when it comes to an NFL future.” — On3 Director of Scouting and Rankings Charles Power

IOL Jven Williams – Penn State commit

On3 Ranking: No. 10
Industry Comparison (Next highest: No. 44, 247Sports)
On3’s Take: “We really like Reading (Pa.) Wyomissing offensive lineman Jven Williams‘ ability as a run-blocker, and he can play multiple positions along the line. He could be a tackle or a guard, but he’s exceptional at working to the second level with his movement skills and functional strength on the field. He made a considerable jump from his sophomore to junior year. His size and frame more than checks out; he’s close to 6-foot-5, 300 pounds now. Arms more than 34 inches, and then you combine that with his athleticism showing up in track and field where he is one of the best throwers in the country. He was a state champion in the shot put and discus as a junior. There’s a lot of short-area power and burst with him, and the explosiveness shows up on the field. Long-term projection right now is on the interior but I wouldn’t be shocked if he plays tackle in college. The length, athleticism and play personality all checks out.” — On3 Director of Scouting and Rankings Charles Power

OT Zalance Heard

On3 Ranking: No. 13
Industry Comparison (Next highest: No. 63, 247Sports)
On3’s Take: “It’s a funny story with Neville (La.) offensive tackle Zalance Heard. I was watching a high school game Louisiana last year that featured a bunch of top-end talent, and immediately one of the offensive linemen jumped out. And I thought, ‘he’s huge, he’s long and he moves really well.’ And it was him. He had a couple P5 offers at the time, but he was a little off the radar because he was a defensive tackle at his prior school. His frame and stature are as good as you’ll see at offensive tackle in this cycle. He’s 6-foot-5.5, and a pretty lean-looking 305 pounds. He still has room to add mass in his lower body. Exceptional length, 36-plus inch arms verified on college visits. From that standpoint, he’s just how you draw it up as an offensive tackle. Then you watch him play, and he’s extremely nasty. Plays with a physical edge, works to finish his blocks and just dominates in his first year playing offensive line at the high school level.” — On3 Director of Scouting and Rankings Charles Power

WR Noah Rogers – Ohio State commit

On3 Ranking: No. 17
Industry Comparison (Next highest: No. 42, 247Sports)
On3’s Take: “Rolesville (N.C.) wideout Noah Rogers is one of the best deep threats we’ve seen in the 2023 cycle. But he can do a lot more than that as well. He has a pretty well-rounded profile, very good size at 6-foot-2, 195 pounds. He tests as a strong athlete, ran a sub-4.5 electronically timed 40 prior to his junior season, which is one of the better times you’ll see in this class. Most importantly, it shows up on Friday nights.

… He is one of the most productive receivers we’ve seen in the last couple cycles, with close to 2,300 yards and 33 touchdowns as a sophomore and junior playing a shortened sophomore season due to COVID. He is dominant at that level, gets vertical separation easily, has a significant burst in the route and after the catch and stacks defensive backs. He can make plays on the ball too, has bouncy athleticism where he can elevate and make contested catches well. We saw him at Overtime’s OT7 this summer, and nobody scored more long touchdowns than him. When we took stock of the receiver group, he had a very complete profile.” — On3 Director of Scouting and Rankings Charles Power

S Peyton Bowen – Notre Dame commit

On3 Ranking: No. 18
Industry Comparison (Next highest: No. 30, ESPN)
On3’s Take: “Safety is probably the strongest and deepest position group in this class relative to normal cycles; there’s just a lot of top safeties even going down into the three-star ranks. A lot of competition at the top, but we feel really good about Denton (Texas) Guyer’s Peyton Bowen being right up there as a five-star prospect. He flashed every game that I watched him; an exceptional high school player at safety while also playing special teams and some offense. The range, playmaking ability and ball skills really stand out. He had six interceptions as a junior and double-digit pass breakups at the highest classification in Texas high school football. He is just a consistent star performer every time you watch him.

… His measurables, he is highly athletic. At Under Armour Future 50, he was second in the fastest man in the 40. I would imagine he is running low 4.4s, high 4.3s. We’re talking about a very twitchy, explosive athlete in addition to how good of a football player he is.” — On3 Director of Scouting and Rankings Charles Power

Shelton Sampson Jr. – LSU commit

On3 Ranking: No. 21
Industry Comparison (Next highest: No. 36, ESPN)
On3’s Take: Baton Rouge (La.) Catholic wideout Shelton Sampson Jr. was one of our 10 initial five-stars in this cycle dating back to last August. With him, you start off with the size and speed, as well as the catch radius. As a target, he’s one of the taller top receivers in the cycle, over 6-foot-3, 190 pounds. His play speed is substantial, and he’s a guy who runs really well, especially in the setting of a game. When you watch him in 7v7 setting and in games, he can elevate and high point the ball to out-jump defensive backs and win contested catches.

… He’s had some injuries and missed some of his junior season. He was not really active on the offseason circuit, so we haven’t had quite the recent exposure in comparison to others. But the ability he has with all of the physical tools is really what we liked about him.” — On3 Director of Scouting and Rankings Charles Power