Breaking down the open race for 2024's No. 1 prospect

Monday’s release of the updated 2024 On300 finds Missouri EDGE commit Williams Nwaneri and Ohio State wide receiver pledge Jeremiah Smith remaining as the top two prospects in the On300, respectively. Both Five-Star Plus+ prospects have been at the top of the On300 for months and head into the final stretch as the front-runners in what is an open race for the No. 1 spot.

The past three cycles – 2022 and 2023 – saw battles for No. 1 overall extend deep into the cycle. That looks to be the case in 2024, as well. While Nwaneri and Smith enter the backstretch as the front-runners, there’s a number of prospects who could throw their hat in the ring with strong finishes to their senior season and dominant showings in national all-star games.

Let’s take a look at where things stand in the race for 2024’s No. 1 overall prospect.

Williams Nwaneri flashes high upside

To this point, Williams Nwaneri looks like the most physically gifted prospect in the cycle. The Lee’s Summit (Mo.) Lee’s Summit North product has rare physical tools, pairing an elite frame with plus movement skills. Nwaneri tips the scales at 6-foot-6, 265-pounds with arms that measure over 36 inches and 11-inch hands. He moves like a much smaller prospect, showing unique bend and speed for a player of his size.

Nwaneri has the functional athleticism to line up on the edge at the next level. When everything clicks, he essentially does what he wants on Friday nights. There’s certainly room for improvement with his overall consistency and as a run defender. With that said, heading into the all-star circuit, he looks to have the highest upside among prospects at premium positions in the 2024 cycle – hence his position as the No. 1 overall prospect.

South Carolina commit Dylan Stewart and Texas commit Colin Simmons are two more EDGE prospects who check in as five-star prospects. Neither is in the top ten at this point, but they could make a run with dominant showings it possible there’s a late surge from an EDGE outside the five-star ranks like Tennessee commit Jordan Ross, Miami commit Marquise Lightfoot or Notre Dame commit Bryce Young? That seems unlikely, but we can’t rule anything out in this open race.

Jeremiah Smith looks like the surest bet

If Williams Nwaneri presents the high upside option, Ohio State wide receiver commit Jeremiah Smith (No. 2) is the safe bet. Smith looks like one of the best prospects at the positions in years, in large part to his combination of size, athleticism and elite technical skills. The Hollywood (Fla.) Chaminade-Madonna star is a 6-foot-3, 205-pounder with advanced route-running, high-end ball skills and doubles as a state championship hurdler. Smith dominates on Friday nights and is in the midst of a strong senior season that’s seen him haul in 68 passes for 1,083 yards and 16 touchdowns in 11 games.

You don’t have to squint to see his physical gifts and technical ability projecting to the next level. It’s rare to see big receiver prospects with his route-running chops and overall skill package, especially at this age. Smith leads an extremely strong receiver group that’s also highlighted by Texas A&M commit Cam Coleman (No. 5 overall), who would probably be the top receiver prospect in most recent cycles.

Surging big men

Two big men who have seen their stock soar as seniors deserve mention. Florida defensive line pledge LJ McCray checks in at No. 3 overall in the updated On300. McCray is a physically-gifted prospect, checking at 6-foot-6, 280 pounds with plus length and athleticism. He’s putting together a dominant senior season and easily has some of the best film we’ve seen in 2024. McCray ranks as a defensive lineman, but similar to Nwaneri, there’s some ambiguity there due to his combination of size and athleticism. McCray reminds me a bit of Travon Walker as a prospect – but is further ahead of the former No. 1 overall pick at the same stage.

Uncommitted offensive tackle Jordan Seaton looks like a rock solid prospect at the position. Seaton is a highly technical left tackle who has played at a high level as a senior at IMG Academy. The Washington, D.C. native looks to have a very high floor and could be in the mix with continued strong showings. He leads a promising group of five star offensive tackles that includes South Carolina commit Josiah Thompson and LSU commit Weston Davis.

Could a quarterback mount a charge?

We’ve made it this far without mentioning the elephant in the room – quarterbacks. While there does not appear to be a slam dunk No. 1 overall type at the position at this stage, the two five-stars at the position certainly deserve mention. Alabama commit Julian Sayin (No. 7) and Florida commit DJ Lagway (No. 15) have to be considered possibilities given their status at the top of the most valued position.

Sayin has been a model of consistency. The Carlsbad (Calif.) High passer has turned in strong showings in every setting. He’s the most accurate passer in the cycle and is extremely clean and efficient as a passer. Sayin had some great moments as a senior. He finished the year completing 74.5% of his passes for 2,369 yards and 24 touchdowns against 1 interception in 10 games.

Lagway has long been considered one of the more physically-gifted quarterbacks in the 2024 cycle. The newly-minted five-star is having a monster senior season at Willis (Texas) High, completing 73.9% of his passes at 11.9 yards per attempt. Lagway has accounted for 71 touchdowns in 12 games – an average of nearly 6 touchdowns per game. His ability to stress defenses with his arm and legs makes him a five-star and a high upside prospect at the position.

Both Sayin and Lagway are slated to be at the Under Armour All-America Game in January.