Mistakes were made: The On3 Preseason 3-star All-America offense

Basic math proves recruiting rankings to be generally accurate and predictive in projecting future top NFL draft picks. Still, some of the best players ultimately fall through the cracks, missed by some college football powers and the recruiting industry alike. 

With that in mind, On3 presents its Preseason 3-Star All-America team. For this exercise, we selected three-star prospects who have thoroughly outplayed their ranking. The group represents many of the best players in college football heading into the 2021 season. The team was selected by Gerry Hamilton, On3’s senior national recruiting analyst, and Charles Power, On3’s director of scouting and rankings.

We kick things off with the 3-star All-America offense. The defensive selections will be unveiled Tuesday.

QB Carson Strong, Nevada

The buzz: Strong (6 feet 4, 215 pounds) had a big junior season in 2020, completing 70.1 percent of his passes for 2,858 yards, 27 touchdowns and four interceptions. Nevada finished 7-2 with Strong at the helm of the Wolf Pack’s Air Raid offense. He has some of the best arm talent in college football. He missed his senior year at Vacaville (Calif.) High with a knee injury. He already had committed to Nevada and the staff stuck with him. He’s from a little off the grid in Vacaville, north of the San Francisco Bay area. He was productive and efficient as a junior at Vacaville, completing 69.2 percent of his passes for 2,732 yards, 26 touchdowns and four interceptions in 10 games. He also was a top basketball player, and averaged 18.1 points and 12.8 rebounds as a junior. There wasn’t a ton of video on Strong as a high school prospect, but the bits available are impressive. The talent appears to always have been there, but the injury, geography and lack of video seem to be the key contributors to his consensus national ranking in the 2200s and lack of Power 5 attention. — Charles Power

QB Malik Willis, Liberty

The buzz: Willis (6-1, 215) enters the 2021 season on the heels of a breakout first year in Hugh Freeze’s offense at Liberty. Willis transferred to Liberty from Auburn, where he was a backup in 2017 and ’18. As a recruit in the 2017 cycle, Willis originally was considered to be more of an athlete prospect by most outlets. But that sentiment began to change after he transferred from Atlanta Westlake to nearby Roswell High for his senior year. Willis had a big final season at Roswell, completing 60.5 percent of his passes for 2,562 yards, 27 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He also ran for 1,033 yards and 10 touchdowns, and led Roswell to the state title game. Watching Willis’ senior video, it’s apparent he should’ve been a four-star prospect. The arm talent and athleticism are easy to see. Initially a Virginia Tech commit, he flipped to Auburn shortly after receiving an offer in late December. This is most likely a case of a missed senior season evaluation by the recruiting industry. — Charles Power

RB Deuce Vaughn, Kansas State

The buzz: Vaughn (5-6, 175) became a star in the Big 12 last season as a freshman for the Wildcats. Vaughn, a darting, quick playmaker, scored nine touchdowns on 155 touches in 2020. He totaled 642 rushing yards, 434 receiving yards and 145 yards in returns, and averaged 128 all-purpose yards per game. He was named the Big 12 Offensive Freshman of the Year. The reason Vaughn was not heavily recruited, or highly ranked, is that he was listed at 5-6 and 165 pounds coming out of Cedar Ridge (Texas) High, in the Austin area. Vaughn’s elite quickness and acceleration resulted in back-to-back district Offensive MVP awards, and more than 5,000 yards from scrimmage. Despite that production, questions about his durability at the next level was a question. Vaughn was lightly recruited out of high school, and made just one official visit, to K-State. He did receive offers from Arkansas and Missouri in addition to Kansas State. Vaughn is the son of former college assistant and current NFL scout Chris Vaughn. — Gerry Hamilton

RB Kevin Harris, South Carolina

The buzz: Harris (5-10, 220) enjoyed a breakout season in 2020, leading the SEC in rushing with 1,138 yards in 10 games, and was the lone bright spot for the Gamecocks’ offense. He enters the 2021 season off a minor back procedure, but still is considered one of the top backs in the SEC. Harris was a muscled-up workhorse in high school, rushing for more than 3,100 yards and 38 touchdowns in his final two seasons at Hinesville (Ga.) Bradwell Institute. The biggest question centered on Harris’ ability to rip off long runs. He averaged around 6.0 yards per carry, which is lower than you want from top backs. Harris also was clocked at 4.78 seconds in the 40. He’s obviously answered those questions at the college level and has even slimmed down a bit from his high school days. South Carolina was Harris’ lone Power 5 offer. — Charles Power

RB Mohamed Ibrahim, Minnesota

The buzz: After redshirting in 2017, Ibrahim (5-10, 210) has developed into one of the top backs in the country. He has had two 1,000-yard seasons, including last season, when he hit the 100-yard mark in each of the Gophers’ seven games. He topped 200 yards against Maryland and Illinois, and was named the Big Ten Running Back of the Year. Ibrahim played on a high school team at Olney (Md.) Good Counsel in 2017 that featured four other Power 5 signees (two to Kentucky, one to Virginia and one to Maryland). He was the most lightly recruited of the five despite rushing for more than 2,600 yards and scoring 30 touchdowns in his last two seasons. Ibrahim was an undersized power back with quick feet and tackle-breaking ability at Good Counsel. He lacked long speed, and combined with his size, that kept him from being heavily recruited. Minnesota was the lone official visit Ibrahim made as a senior. — Gerry Hamilton

WR Zay Flowers, Boston College

The buzz: Flowers (5-10, 177) emerged as one of the best receivers in the ACC as a sophomore last fall. He was the top target for quarterback Phil Jurkovec, and finished the season with 892 yards and nine touchdowns on 56 receptions. He also ran for another score. On paper, there wasn’t a ton about Flowers as a recruit that would blow you away. His size and production didn’t jump out. There weren’t any testing numbers or track results to speak of. That said, his video was quite impressive. Flowers was all over the field for Fort Lauderdale (Fla.) University School, and was a dynamic playmaker out of the slot. You can see Flowers consistently break the ankles of talented south Florida defenders. Flowers also saw time at defensive back, showing well there, too. In retrospect, the senior video is four-star caliber. This obviously was a heck of a find for Boston College. Flowers held additional offers from the likes of Kansas State, Kentucky, Maryland, NC State, Nebraska, North Carolina, Pitt, Purdue and South Carolina. — Charles Power

WR Ainias Smith, Texas A&M

The buzz: Smith (5-10, 190) has been a Swiss Army knife for Jimbo Fisher’s offense in his first two seasons, having worked as a receiver, running back and return man for the Aggies. Smith’s older brother, Maurice, signed with Alabama as a four-star defensive back prospect and played for the Crimson Tide before transferring to Georgia for his final season. Ainias didn’t receive the same attention or hype as a recruit in the 2019 cycle. His recruitment primarily revolved around Texas A&M and Duke. It was up in the air if he’d end up in A&M’s class until right around National Signing Day. In hindsight, Smith should’ve received more attention and been ranked higher. He was a productive two-way player at Sugar Land Dulles, in the Houston suburbs. As a senior, Smith had more than 1,100 yards of offense and 20 touchdowns. He also had three interceptions on defense. He hit the marks athletically, as well. Smith posted a 4.51-second 40-yard dash, a 4.00-second shuttle and a 36.4-inch vertical on the camp circuit. He also was clocked at 11.11 seconds in the 100 meters. — Charles Power

WR Jalen Tolbert, South Alabama

The buzz: Tolbert (6-3, 190) redshirted as a true freshman in 2017, then went from 60 yards receiving in 2018 to 521 in 2019 to 1,085 (and eight touchdowns) last season. He had a 10-catch, 252-yard, three-touchdown game in a win over Arkansas State, and was a first-team All-Sun Belt Conference pick. Tolbert wasn’t a starter at Mobile (Ala.) McGill-Toolen until his senior season. He went from zero college interest to Power 5 interest after catching 37 passes for 696 yards as a senior. He tallied 135 receiving yards as a junior in a reserve role on a state-title team. Tolbert was a three-sport letterman in high school. He made official visits to Michigan State and Ball State before deciding on hometown South Alabama. He has impressed pro scouts. — Gerry Hamilton

WR Reggie Roberson, SMU

The buzz: Roberson (6-0, 200) signed with West Virginia out of Mesquite (Texas) Horn in the 2017 class. After a reserve role as a freshman, he transferred home to SMU. He has become a consistent and productive pass catcher for the Mustangs despite battling various injuries. In three seasons, Roberson has 117 receptions for 2,079 yards and 17 touchdowns. He suffered a season-ending injury in the fourth game of 2020. Roberson, then a 180-pounder, had a monster senior season at Horn, which jump-started his recruitment. He caught 60 passes for 1,060 yards and 11 touchdowns, and had more than 800 return yards. He finished his final season with 1,859 all-purpose yards and 1,111 yards of total offense. Roberson made official visits to Illinois, Washington State, Utah and West Virginia before deciding on the Mountaineers. — Gerry Hamilton

TE Charlie Kolar, Iowa State

The buzz: Kolar has gone from a 6-6, 220-pound senior at Norman (Okla.) North to an NFL draft prospect at Iowa State. Kolar, who’s now listed at 6-6 and 260, redshirted as a true freshman in 2017, and played as a reserve in the first half of 2018 before taking over as the go-to tight end. He has been a first-team All-Big 12 pick each of the past two seasons, when he has combined for 95 receptions for 1,248 yards and 14 touchdowns. Kolar is one of the more interesting three-star recruiting stories. He grew up in Norman as the son of an Oklahoma professor. At one time, both parents were OU employees. But when the hometown Sooners didn’t offer, Kolar chose Iowa State over Oklahoma State. He was an all-state selection as a senior after recording 66 receptions for 1,240 yards and 12 TDs. His older brother, John, signed with Oklahoma State as a quarterback in the 2015 class. John transferred to Iowa State for his final season in 2019. — Gerry Hamilton

G Ikem Ekwonu, NC State

The buzz: Ekwonu (it’s pronounced EE-kehm eck-WAHN-ew) has developed into a dominant run blocker in his first two years at NC State. He’s played left tackle and guard for the Wolfpack, and has been among the nation’s best offensive linemen in both seasons. In looking at his high school bona fides from his days at Charlotte Providence Day School, Ekwonu (6-4, 320) had many of the markers of a future top lineman. He was a two-way player, playing on both lines. He was a state-champion wrestler. For good measure, Ekwonu was also a top thrower in track with a 49-9 toss in the shot put. That athletic profile alone points toward a high ceiling. On the field, Ekwonu was long, athletic and powerful. He was a bit technically undeveloped as an offensive lineman. That said, the physical and athletic traits were obvious enough that he should not have been a three-star recruit. — Charles Power

T Zion Nelson, Miami

The buzz: I saw Nelson, who starred at Sumter (S.C.) High, at Shrine Bowl of the Carolinas practices in December 2018. He was a 6-5, 235-pounder committed to Appalachian State. At the time, I wrote about how Nelson had the biggest frame of the offensive linemen in attendance, with noticeably long arms and big feet. Still, he clearly was a developmental prospect. Shortly thereafter, Nelson flipped to Miami and signed with the Hurricanes as a mid-year enrollee. By far the most surprising element here is how quickly Nelson has filled out his frame. He went from 235 pounds in December to 285 by the Hurricanes’ first game nine months later. It’s rare to see a player put on that much good weight that quickly. He’s been the starter at left tackle since. While he’s had his ups and downs, Nelson — now a 316-pounder — has first-round talent and should be in for a strong junior season. — Charles Power

T Tyler Vrabel, Boston College

The buzz: Vrabel is the son of Tennessee Titans coach Mike Vrabel. After coming out of Houston St. Pius X as a lightly recruited prospect, he has developed into one of the ACC’s top tackles. A late developer physically, Vrabel has grown an inch and gained more than 50 pounds since leaving high school in 2018; he’s now 6-5 and 307. He has made 24 consecutive starts heading into the season. I visited St. Pius X before Vrabel’s senior season, and came away impressed. Expecting an advanced understanding of technique was a given. But Vrabel’s flexibility, knee bend and reactive quickness made him a Power 5 prospect. The question at the time was his size. At a listed 6-4 and 255 pounds, he didn’t check the Power 5 frame box. In fact, BC was his lone Power 5 offer; he accepted in June before his senior season. — Gerry Hamilton

T Luke Tenuta, Virginia Tech

The buzz: Tenuta enters the season as one of the top up-and-coming tackles in the nation. The son of longtime college defensive coordinator Jon Tenuta, Luke is 6-9 and 320. After redshirting in 2018, Tenuta started five games at right tackle in 2019 before logging eight starts in 2020. Tenuta came out of Crozet (Va.) Western Albemarle, in the Charlottesville area, with three Power 5 offers. He chose Virginia Tech over North Carolina as a then-6-7, 270-pound two-way player. Despite earning Virginia class 3A All-State honors at defensive end, offensive tackle was his future. Tenuta began high school at Apex (N.C.) High, near Raleigh, before moving to Virginia. He played varsity football and baseball. Tenuta showed the feet and body quickness to develop into a quality offensive tackle, but needed time to fill out his long-limbed frame. — Gerry Hamilton

C Dawson Deaton, Texas Tech 

The buzz: Deaton has developed into one of the top centers in college football after redshirting in 2017. He enters the season with 22 consecutive starts at center, and was a second-team All-Big 12 pick by league coaches last season. Deaton checks all of the boxes: He’s an all-conference-level player, a team captain and a three-time All-Big 12 Academic first-team honoree. He played on the same offensive line at Frisco (Texas) High as Under Armour All-America Game guard Jack Anderson, who also signed with Texas Tech. Deaton played mostly left guard as a prep senior, with some snaps at tackle and defensive tackle. He made a big jump from his junior to senior season. His size, frame, quick initial movement and high-end motor earned him 10 Power 5 offers. Texas A&M didn’t offer, and that paved the way for the Red Raiders to win out. — Gerry Hamilton

A look at the other side: A by-the-numbers look at 5-star recruits in the past 10 classes