On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine trends for top remaining prospects

A majority of the top recruits in the 2022 cycle have made their college commitments. But there are a few holdouts who have not yet announced their decisions.

Eleven of the top 100 prospects in the On3 Consensus – a complete and equally weighted industry-generated average that utilizes all four major recruiting media companies — are uncommitted. Not for long, however.

Over the next month-plus, those 11 players will announce their college commitments, and the On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine has odds for each recruit’s commitment.

RPM was released to the public earlier this month. The On3 engineering group teamed up with Spiny.ai to create the industry’s first algorithm and machine learning-based product to predict where athletes will attend college. 

It factors in machine learning, expert predictions, social sentiment, visits, and historical trends. However, expert predictions are still a big piece of the RPM equation.

5-Star Plus+ LB Harold Perkins

Background: Cypress (Texas) Cy Park
On3 Consensus: No. 3
Expected Announcement Date: Jan. 2 at Under Armour All-American Game
RPM Prediction: 96.5% for Texas A&M
The Skinny: The top uncommitted prospect left on the board, Harold Perkins is set to announce his commitment Sunday. And Texas A&M is the runaway favorite for the Five-Star Plus+ prospect. Texas and LSU are the other two main contenders for Perkins’ talent but it appears the Aggies will be adding their fourth top-10 prospect soon.

5-Star DL Shemar Stewart

Background: Opa Locka (Fla.) Monsignor Pace
On3 Consensus: No. 7
Expected Announcement Date: Feb. 2
RPM Prediction: 76.2% for Texas A&M, 21.4% for Miami
The Skinny: Shemar Stewart is down to Georgia, Miami, and Texas A&M. “I can see a good future at all of them,” Stewart recently told On3’s Chad Simmons. Texas A&M has been the favorite for Stewart for months, and that is still the case. But Mario Cristobal is making Stewart a priority, and he is going to fight until he can’t fight no more to keep the top player from the Sunshine State in South Florida.

5-Star IOL Devon Campbell

Background: Arlington (Texas) Bowie
On3 Consensus: No. 10
Expected Announcement Date: Feb. 3
RPM Prediction: 93.3% for Texas
The Skinny: Devon Campbell said he is down to Texas and Oklahoma, but it the Longhorns are the clear favorites. RPM doesn’t even give the Sooners the clear second-best odds to sign Campbell. RPM gives both Oklahoma and USC have a 2.2% chance to sign the nation’s top interior offensive lineman.

5-Star OT Josh Conerly Jr.

Background: Seattle Rainier Beach
On3 Consensus: No. 22
Expected Announcement Date: Feb. 2
RPM Prediction: 27.7% for Michigan, 21.3% for Oregon, 21.3% for USC, 21.3% for Washington
The Skinny: Josh Conerly Jr. always planned on signing in February, and as a result, he has taken his recruiting process slower than most. Because of this, his recruitment is still wide open. He told On3’s Chad Simmons two months ago that he was looking at Michigan, Oklahoma, Oregon, USC and Washington. Only the Wolverines have the same head coach as it did at that time.

4-Star S Jacoby Mathews

Background: Ponchatoula (La.)
On3 Consensus: No. 33
Expected Announcement Date: February
RPM Prediction: 67.8% for Texas A&M, 16.8% for LSU, 12.6% for Texas
The Skinny: The recruitment of Jacoby Mathews will be one to watch over the next month. The nation’s top safety was once committed to LSU, and Brian Kelly has made an impression on the in-state star. But Corey Raymond, who recruited him at LSU, is now with Florida, and the Gators have earned an official visit with Mathews in January.

4-Star IOL Earnest Greene

Background: Bellflower (Calif.) St. John Bosco
On3 Consensus: No. 3
Expected Announcement Date: Jan. 8 at All-American Bowl
RPM Prediction: 56.6% for Alabama, 40.1% for Georgia
The Skinny: Despite having Ohio State and Texas in his top schools, Earnest Greene appears to be deciding between Alabama and GeorgiaThe On3 Consensus – a complete and equally weighted industry-generated average that utilizes all four major recruiting media companies – has. While they are No. 2 in the RPM rankings, Georgia has been trending in recent weeks, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see that number change heading into the All-American Bowl.

4-Star RB TreVonte’ Citizen

Background: Lake Charles (La.) Lake Charles College Prep
On3 Consensus: No. 3
Expected Announcement Date: TBD
RPM Prediction: 76.0% for LSU, 19.6% for Auburn
The Skinny: TreVonte’ Citizen has had a very interesting recruitment, and without a decision date announce, it looks like it will continue to be so heading into the new year. He decommitted from LSU recently, but the Tigers are still the favorites according to RPM. But don’t overlook Auburn and its coaching staff, who have been working hard on Citizen to flip him.

4-Star EDGE Omari Abor

Background: Duncanville (Texas)
On3 Consensus: No. 3
Expected Announcement Date: Jan. 2 at Under Armour All-American Game
RPM Prediction: 95.5% for Ohio State
The Skinny: Omari Abor is a top talent out of Texas, and it appears that he is headed to Ohio State whenever he announces his decision. At this point, any other team sliding in to grab this commitment would be shocking.

4-Star WR Kevin Coleman

Background: Saint Louis (Mo.) St. Mary’s
On3 Consensus: No. 3
Expected Announcement Date: February
RPM Prediction: 85.5% for Miami
The Skinny: Miami is a big favorite for Missouri’s second-best prospect, Kevin Coleman. No other school has a greater than 6% chance to land the wideout, according to RPM. But don’t rule out Florida State or Oregon pushing hard to try to land Coleman.

4-Star EDGE Cyrus Moss

Background: Las Vegas Bishop Gorman
On3 Consensus: No. 3
Expected Announcement Date: Jan. 8 at All-American Bowl
RPM Prediction: 55.2% for Oregon, 41.7% for USC
The Skinny: In the four-horse race for Cyrus Moss, two teams have jumped to the front of the back. Those two teams are Oregon and USC, as Arizona State and Miami have odds below 1% according to RPM. But, unlike most RPM predictions that have a clear favorite, Oregon and USC are separated by only about 14% points — but that could swing in any which direction.

4-Star RB Jovantae Barnes

Background: Las Vegas Desert Pines
On3 Consensus: No. 93
Expected Announcement Date: Jan. 2 at Under Armour All-American Game
RPM Prediction: 94.6% for Oklahoma
The Skinny: Jovantae Barnes has a final three of Florida State, Oklahoma and USC and will announce his decision Sunday as well. “It was not easy,” Barnes told On3’s Chad Simmons. “USC had a coaching change. Oklahoma had a coaching change. I am from Florida, and Florida State is trying to re-build the program.”