On300: Inside the numbers show Georgia now part of Big Three

Having been around college football recruiting for nearly three decades, I’ve learned to love numbers. Numbers help you identify small shifts that lead to changing tides and eventual seismic movements in the recruiting world. That’s why it’s important to sift through ranking lists to see what trends are emerging, and that’s what we’re doing here with the updated release of the On300 for the Class of 2024.

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For decades, California, Florida and Texas have been known as the Big Three. The three states have produced annually the highest number of Division I signees. They’ve also produced a great number of blue-chip targets.

But savvy football observers – and college recruiters – have been well aware of the rise of talent in Georgia. For example, the On300 for the Class of 2022 had 30 players from the Peach State in it. Additionally, the On300 for the 2023 class has 32 Georgia recruits in it.

Yet, none of those compared to the level of talent in the Class of 2024 from Georgia. The state has 42 – yes, 42 players – ranked in the On300. That number is only behind Texas (55) and is tied with Florida. It also far surpasses California with only 20 recruits ranked in the top 300 nationally.

Maybe it’s time to include Georgia in the Big Three along with Florida and Texas?

“The state of Georgia’s 2024 cycle looks to be loaded at this early stage in the process,” said Charles Power, On3’s Director of Scouting and Rankings. “There’s a bunch of top talent at premium positions like quarterback and EDGE along with quality depth at other spots wide receiver and running back.”

In recent history, people would stick up for California because it still produces quality amounts of talent that were picked in the NFL draft. It still does. But Georgia has one of the highest Draft Talent Ratios – the radio of drafted blue-chip players divided by the state’s population share – over the past five years at 256%. In comparison, California’s Draft Talent Ratio is only 77%.

“The Class of 2024 is a continuation of trends we’ve seen in the NFL Draft as of late,” Power said. “Georgia has had the second-most players drafted behind Texas in recent years. I think the resources and coaching in the state is on the uptick and that’s aiding in developing players in what has always been a talented area.”

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The cornerback crop in the Class of 2024 is extremely strong with 36 from the position ranked in the On300 and three ranked in the top nine in the country overall.

The headliner remains five-star Desmond Ricks of IMG Academy. The Chesapeake, Va., native is the No. 2 player overall in the country, and he has a long list of top teams already after him. It’s still early in the process, but the On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine lists Alabama as the team with the best chance of landing him.

Ricks’ IMG teammate, Ellis Robinson IV, ranks No. 6 overall. Plus, Bryce West of Cleveland Glenville is at No. 9 in the country. Alabama is listed by the On3 RPM has the leader for Robinson. West is a heavy Ohio State lean, according to the On3 RPM.

While there’s plenty of cornerback talent at the top of the list, the position is absolutely loaded. For example, there are seven corners in the top 50 of the On300, 13 in the top 100 and 25 in the top 200.

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Obviously, No. 1 overall and Ohio State commitment Dylan Raiola is the headliner at the quarterback spot. But observers are quick to point out that there’s certainly a lot of depth at the position in the Class of 2024. This includes 21 signal-callers ranked in the updated On300.

While Five-Star Plus+ QBs Arch Manning and Malachi Nelson top the 2023 rankings, there is a significant drop off in the rankings outside of the top six at the position in the senior class. That’s not the case in the 2024 crop with six quarterbacks ranked in the top 50 and 11 ranked in the top 90 overall.

“While it’s still early, from everything I’ve noticed, there’s just more depth at the quarterback spot in the 2024 class,” a Pac-12 quarterback coach said. “I think Dylan Raiola could have more upside because of his athleticism than Arch, but he’s not the only good one in the class. We’re big fans of DJ Lagway and Josh Flowers. And Jake Merklinger is going to be a very good one, too.”

Those notes fit well with what Power observed working on the rankings.

“The quarterback group looks to have good depth at this early stage,” he said. “The obvious headliner is Dylan Raiola, who ranks not only as the top quarterback but the No. 1 overall prospect. Raiola is a bit ahead of the others right now and stacks up as one of the better underclassman quarterback prospects in the last few cycles.”

13

Maryland and Washington DC are one of those areas where talent can be found annually, but it does tend to ebb and flow. In the Class of 2024, it’s definitely flowing with 13 players from the area ranked in the On300.

EDGE Dylan Stewart from Washington (D.C.) Friendship Collegiate Academy is on the verge of becoming a five-star from On3. He moved up one spot to be ranked as the fourth-best recruit in the country. Stewart said recently he’s just getting started with his recruitment.

He visited Washington in January and more visits are on the way. Alabama, NC State, Ohio State, Oregon and USC are schools Stewart listed that he would like to visit in the coming months. Those schools along with South Carolina and Washington stand out early.

Yet, Stewart isn’t the only heralded recruit from the area. Four-star OT Cam’Ron Warren, four-star CB Braydon Lee and four-star EDGEs Dominic Nichols and Jaylen Harvey also rank in the top 140 of the On300.

“With Maryland and DC, I think that state is benefitting from some top high school programs, namely St. Frances Academy), that have players emerge at early stages in the process,” Power said. “They attract many top prospects from the Baltimore and D.C. areas. These are high school programs with the resources to aid in exposure early on.”

11

Further showcasing how early it is in the recruiting process for players in the Class of 2024, the On300 only features 11 committed players. Additionally, Florida State is the only school with more than one player committed from the list at this point. The Noles have commitments from Georgia running back Kameron Davis (37) and Florida safety Jordan Pride (120).

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It’s extremely rare to see a player from South Dakota ranked in the On300. But IOL Navarro Schunke (No. 36) is not an average high school athlete. Schunke is a two-sport star at Brandon (S.D.) Brandon Valley, where he doubles as one of the top heavyweight wrestlers in the nation. He’s a three-time state champion and won the 16U national championship as a heavyweight in 2021.

“Schunke’s skills on the mat transfer over to the field,” Power said. “He’s a lean, natural mover who excels as a run blocker at the second level.”

According to the On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine, Nebraska has an 87.1% chance of landing Schunke.