On3's College QB Fantasy Draft: In a wide-open year, who emerges as a star?

Last year’s On3 Quarterback Fantasy Draft was so easy. Whoever won the game of Rock, Paper, Scissors would to take USC’s Caleb Williams, and we’d be off to the races. And that’s exactly what happened. Jesse Simonton’s paper beat Andy Staples’ rock, and Jesse grabbed the defending Heisman Trophy winner.

This year? We struggled to make our first choices.

But if last year’s QB draft taught us anything, it’s that the picks in the back half of the draft will determine the winner. Andy wiped the floor with Jesse last year mostly because of two players: No. 5 pick Jayden Daniels and No. 9 pick Dillon Gabriel. They were the two most productive players using this scoring system:

Passing touchdown: 6 points
Every 25 yards passing: 1 point
Rushing touchdown: 6 points
Every 10 yards rushing: 1 point
Interception thrown: Minus-2 points
Fumble lost: Minus-2 points
Pick-six thrown: Minus-6 points

The rules are simple. Draft 10 QBs (alternating picks) from the pool of 134 FBS teams. Each QB Fantasy Team must include at least one Group of 5 QB. The scoring system rewards the dual threat QBs who can score on the ground, and we definitely took that into account making our selections this year. Unlike last year, nothing was obvious. And we won’t find out until the games begin whether we used the correct drafting strategy or we overthought the whole thing.

(From Andy: Jesse definitely overthought it.)

Team Andy

Round 1: Jalen Milroe, Alabama
I’m banking on new Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer building the offense around Milroe, who compiled 35 total touchdowns (23 passing, 12 rushing) last season even though it took then-coordinator Tommy Rees a quarter of the season to realize Milroe was the guy and even longer to start calling the offense based on Milroe’s skill set. I’m also banking on Milroe taking fewer sacks. Some were the fault of the line — bad snaps, a freshman left tackle learning on the job — but others were squarely on Milroe. In year two as the starter, Milroe should be able to either get rid of the ball or scramble more efficiently than he did last year. And if he does, he’ll put up massive numbers.

Round 2: Dillon Gabriel, Oregon
I got the Oklahoma version of Gabriel in the ninth round last year, and he was the third-most productive QB overall according to the scoring system. He’s probably going to put up even bigger numbers in Oregon’s offense, which will give him a lot of high-confidence throws that should push his completion percentage (an already high 69.3 last year) closer to what Bo Nix did last year (77.4 percent) for the Ducks. Don’t be surprised if Gabriel runs more than Nix did last year, though. Gabriel ran for 12 TDs for the Sooners, and he’s a more dangerous passer when defenses also have to respect his legs.

Round 3: Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss
If South Carolina transfer Juice Wells is healthy, adding him to a group of targets that includes Tre Harris and tight end Caden Prieskorn gives Dart a plethora of options. Dart averaged 9.4 yards per attempt and threw for 23 TDs with a less dynamic receiver group last season. And remember, Dart can move when he needs to. He ran for eight TDs last season.

Round 4: Avery Johnson, Kansas State
By the end of the season, this pick will look either shockingly low or like the biggest reach of the bunch. We know Johnson is lightning fast, but we don’t yet know how effective he is as a passer. Kansas State let Will Howard walk because coaches thought Johnson’s ceiling is higher. If Johnson — who ran for five TDs at Texas Tech last season — can put up even above-average passing numbers, then he’ll stuff the stat sheet.

Round 5: Shedeur Sanders, Colorado
Like Milroe above, this is a bet on a QB taking fewer sacks than he did last year. Colorado ranked No. 132 in the nation in sacks allowed last season with 56. There’s almost nowhere to go but up from there. If the Buffaloes can cut that number, Sanders will get plenty of chances to throw for big yards and TDs.

Round 6: Noah Fifita, Arizona
When in doubt, take a guy with an alien at receiver. That would be Tetairoa McMillan, Fifita’s tag team partner since high school. Fifita and McMillan kept Arizona’s core group together after the departure of coach Jedd Fisch to Washington. Expect them to stay productive under new coach Brent Brennan.

Round 7: Garrett Nussmeier, LSU
In a world of transfers, Nussmeier is a throwback. He could have gone elsewhere and started earlier, but he waited behind a Heisman Trophy winner and now steps into an offense ready-made for success. Nussmeier will play behind one of the nation’s best offensive lines, and Kyren Lacy, Chris Hilton and Liberty transfer C.J. Daniels should give Nussmeier some open targets down the field.

Round 8: Quinn Ewers, Texas
Durability is the only reason Ewers fell this far. He missed two starts last season with injury and three starts in 2022. Even though Ewers lost Xavier Worthy and Ja’Tavion Sanders to the NFL, he picks up Isaiah Bond (Alabama), Silas Bolden (Oregon State), Matthew Golden (Houston) and — perhaps most importantly — freshman Ryan Wingo. If he stays healthy, he’s going to pile up the yards and TDs.

Round 9: Brady Cook, Missouri
When in doubt, see No. 6. In this case, the virtually unstoppable receiver is Luther Burden III. With Burden and Theo Wease shagging passes and transfers Marcus Carroll (Georgia State) and Nate Noel (Appalachian State) making up for Cody Schrader’s production in the run game, Missouri should have a potent offense. And don’t forget the 6-2, 215-pound Cook isn’t afraid to lower his shoulder and score on the ground.

Round 10: Seth Henigan, Memphis
Jesse thought he took all the productive Group of 5 QBs and shut me out, but it’s a very deep group this year. That includes the QB of a team that could compete for that Group of 5 College Football Playoff berth. Henigan threw for 32 TDs and ran for five last year. If I can get 37 TDs out of my No. 10 pick, I’m probably cruising to another season victory.

Team Jesse

Round 1: Kaidon Salter, Liberty
An early draft stunner? A Round 1 reach? Nope. The perfect pick for the 2024 (fantasy) QB Draft. Did you know that Salter ranks No. 1 among all — as in EVERY QB in college football — with 44 total touchdowns last season? He’s the perfect fit for Jamey Chadwell’s offense and should light up the stat sheet again as the Flames aim to make a run toward a College Football Playoff berth. 

Round 2: Cam Ward, Miami
The former Incarnate Ward and Washington State transfer has exactly what I was looking for in this exercise: Volume shooting. Ward has 44 career starts with nearly 15,000 total yards and 135 total touchdowns. Considering the pretty penny Miami paid for Ward’s services, Mario Cristobal has no other choice but to let the quarterback cook. 

Round 3: Bryum Brown, USF
A second Group of 5 pick in three sections? You betcha. As a freshman, Brown flourished in Alex Golesh’s ‘Veer ’n Shoot’ offense, accounting for over 4,000 total yards and 37 touchdowns. As you’ll see with some other accompanying future picks, I’m banking on a Year 2 leap with Brown as well. I see a monster season from the Bulls’ QB battering ram.

Round 4: Carson Beck, Georgia 
A much more traditional selection, and perhaps the best pure quarterback in the country in 2024. Beck had nearly 4,000 passing yards in his first season as a starter — tops among all returning QBs nationally. He has a super strong supporting cast and won’t have the luxury this fall of sitting out the fourth quarters against the likes of Alabama and Texas. Again, another Year 2 ascension story — perhaps from a future Top 10 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.

Round 5: Nico Iamaleava, Tennessee 
Upside. Upside. Upside. Fun. Fun. Fun. That was my only real logic for grabbing Iamaleava despite just a single career start. He’s a better fit for Josh Heupel’s offense than Joe Milton, and he has a better set of weapons to work with this season, too. He’s going to throw a bunch of 50 yard bombs with wide open receivers and he’ll carve up opponents with his legs as well. Like you with Avery — AJ Jet — Johnson, I’m all-in on Nico Mania. 

Round 6: Will Howard, Ohio State
Yes, I drafted a quarterback who hasn’t even been officially named the starter yet. But that’s OK, Howard is going to be the guy for Ohio State, and he’s going to put up strong stats in his lone season in Columbus, too. The supporting cast is elite and Howard, who has slimmed down a bit and is reportedly moving really well in fall camp, provides the Buckeyes exactly what their offense was missing in 2023: An option in the run game — especially in the red zone. If Howard can account for 33 touchdowns at Kansas State, imagine what he can do working with Emeka Egbuka, Carnell Tate and Jeremiah Smith?

Round 7: Jordan McCloud, Texas State
Just a G5 groupie over here! McCloud doesn’t have the name cache of others in this draft, but for fantasy purposes, the McCloud is the perfect pick. He might be 35-years-old for all I know. He’s on his fourth school in seven seasons of college football (USF, Arizona, James Madison and now Texas State), but the Sun Belt Player of the Year put up huge numbers for the Dukes in 2023 (nearly 4,000 total yards and 43 touchdowns) and could replicate those stats in G.J. Kinnie’s QB-friendly scheme. 

Round 8: Garrett Greene, West Virginia 
For all the (legitimate) excitement around Avery Johnson’s dual-threat potential, that’s who Greene was in 2023. West Virginia’s ‘White Lightning’ had 772 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns on the ground, in addition to 16 touchdowns to just four picks. Greene isn’t a poster child for efficiency (just 53 percent completions), but in West Virginia’s dunks (screens) and 3s (deep vertical shots) offense, he’s a great fit — and he’s a great fit on my QB Draft team, too. 

Round 9: Jalon Daniels, Kansas 
I tinkered with the idea of drafting a slew of 2024 bounce-back candidates here. Guys who missed a large chunk of last season — like a Riley Leonard or a Conner Weigmen. But I settled on Daniels because of his two-way potential as a passer and runner, and because if Kansas is going to seriously compete for the Big 12 this fall, the Jayhawks will have to ride their horse at QB. Durability is obviously a big concern, but in 2022, Daniels was electric in nine starts. Can he replicate the magic for me again this fall? I hope so. 

Round 10: Jackson Arnold, Oklahoma 
For my final pick, I’m rolling with another former 5-star with tremendous upside but the smallest of sample size production. This is the step-brother selection to my Nico Mania pick — only with more boom-or-bust potential. Arnold is going to chuck the ball around this fall (he threw it 45 times in his lone start last season), but turnovers (three picks in the bowl game) could be an issue considering Oklahoma’s scary schedule. If he can give me a Spencer Rattler or Caleb Williams first-year starting type season, then I’ll be more than satisfied with my final pick.