One conference is dominating the 2022 recruiting cycle

Georgia head coach Kirby Smart said after the Bulldogs’ dominating win over Florida on Saturday night that you “can’t out-coach recruiting.” Many perceived it to be a shot across the bow of Gators’ coach Dan Mullen, whose team upset Georgia last season 44-28.

Aside from one-off anomalies, though, Smart’s statement almost universally rings true. The teams that have dominated recruiting over the past 5-10 years — Alabama, Georgia, Clemson, Oklahoma, and Ohio State — have been represented well in the College Football Playoff.

Having a good coach, or all-time great in Nick Saban’s case, leading the program doesn’t hurt either. Tennessee, USC, and Texas are examples of schools that have recruited far above what their on-field record shows, and they’re good examples of how much coaching turnover can doom programs.

The 2022 class, while not yet finished, features a lot of familiar faces — and one familiar league — at the top of the On3 Consensus Team Rankings. But just below them are a handful of teams who have stepped their game up immensely and are looking to close the talent gap. But one thing is for certain, it just means more down south.

1. SEC

Average Team Ranking: 20.3
Top-Ranked Classes: Alabama (1), Georgia (2), Texas A&M (8)
Top 2022 Commits: ATH Malaki Starks (No. 8), EDGE Jeremiah Alexander (No. 11), WR Luther Burden (No. 13), OT Kiyaunta Goodwin (No. 14)
Biggest Surprises: Missouri, Kentucky

To no one’s surprise, the most dominant conference on the field over the past 15 years is again at the top of the heap in recruiting. And sure, Alabama and Georgia have the top two classes in 2022 is a big part of that. But what the SEC has that no other league does is depth. Thirteen of the 14 programs are ranked in the top 40, and Vanderbilt isn’t far behind at No. 51. No other conference has more than seven teams in that group.

Auburn and Tennessee — at least right now — aren’t recruiting up to their historically high standards. But for this year, a pair of SEC East teams seem to have overtaken them: Missouri and Kentucky. The Tigers brought in a top-30 class a year ago, which was an impressive feat for first-year head coach Eli Drinkwitz. But they’ve been even better in the 2022 cycle, keeping five-star wideout Luther Burden home and surrounding him with eight other four-star prospects.

It’s been a similar blueprint for Kentucky, which went into Indiana and locked up five-star tackle Kiyaunta Goodwin. The ‘Cats have added four skill players ranked in the top 350 nationally, and they’re the odds-on favorite for elite wideout Barion Brown.

2. Big Ten

Average Team Ranking: 36.1
Top-Ranked Classes: Ohio State (3), Penn State (6), Michigan (18)
Top 2022 Commits: LB C.J. Hicks (No. 10), CB Will Johnson (No. 21), CB Terrance Brooks (No. 37), EDGE Dani Dennis-Sutton (No. 41)
Biggest Surprises: Indiana, Rutgers

Seeing Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan atop the Big Ten’s recruiting ranks isn’t anything new, but if James Franklin can hold onto his top-10 class, he deserves his flowers. The Nittany Lions have landed their quarterback of the future with Drew Allar, as well as 15 — yes, 15 — other four-star prospects. Penn State might not have the star power in its class that Ohio State does, but it has gone a long way toward building championship-level depth.

The biggest head-turners of this year’s cycle have been Indiana and Rutgers, though. The Scarlet Knights are just 1-4 in Big Ten play this year, but Greg Schiano has them back in the bowl conversation and making big in-roads on the recruiting trail. Rutgers’ 2020 class ranked No. 64 nationally; 2021 ranked No. 46, and this year’s crop comes in at No. 32. That’s a monstrous leap in two years. Schiano and Co. have dominated the East Coast, from Brooklyn, to Philadelphia, and back home in New Jersey.

Indiana, meanwhile, has reaped the rewards of its top-15 2020 finish. The Hoosiers have compiled a top-25 class despite a 2-6 record this season, including a quintet of four-star prospects. Top-60 athlete Dasan McCullough is the headliner of the group, but there’s plenty of talent to build on in this group.

3. ACC

Average Team Ranking: 39.4
Top-Ranked Classes: Clemson (4), North Carolina (10), Florida State (13)
Top 2022 Commits: ATH Travis Hunter (No. 1), DL Travis Shaw (No. 12), OT Zach Rice (No. 16), QB Cade Klubnik (No. 22)
Biggest Surprises: Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Louisville

One of the biggest wild cards left in the 2022 cycle is the job status of Florida State head coach Mike Norvell. The Seminoles have the commitment of Travis Hunter, the No. 1 prospect in the class, and it looks like that will remain the case as long as Norvell and Co. stay. If they don’t, though, it’s going to be open season on Hunter and FSU’s other commits. That includes top-40 wideout Sam McCall and seven other four-star prospects.

Elsewhere in the league, both Wake Forest and Virginia Tech have put together surprisingly impressive classes, with the latter doing so while dealing with questions about the future of its own head coach. Wake’s class ranks No. 58, which is still below a number of Group of Five programs, but it’s a significant jump from their No. 71 class a year ago.

A team going in the opposite direction is Louisville. Scott Satterfield and Co. put together a nice class in 2021, which finished No. 43 in the team rankings. But 2022 has been far less kind. The Cardinals have just six players committed with the early signing period a little over six weeks away. With potential head coaching changes coming at a handful of programs — including within the ACC — it’s possible Louisville could go into poach mode once the season ends. But there’s very little momentum on the trail right now.

4. Big 12

Average Team Ranking: 39.6
Top-Ranked Classes: Oklahoma (5), Texas (9), Oklahoma State (24)
Top 2022 Commits: DL Gabriel Brownlow-Dindy (No. 4), RB Raleek Brown (No. 46), WR Brenen Thompson (No. 48), RB Gavin Sawchuk (No. 55)
Biggest Surprises: Iowa State, Kansas State

Oklahoma and Texas won’t be in the Big 12 much longer, and that’s both a blessing and a curse for the rest of the league. The Sooners and Longhorns singlehandedly carry the conference in recruiting each cycle, but it also means a steep gap for everyone else to climb on the field. Those two programs landing top-10 classes is a tale as old as time, but a year after bringing in the No. 56 class, Iowa State is making moves. Matt Campbell and Co. have a pair of four-stars in the fold, along with nearly a dozen highly-rated three-star prospects on board as well. The Cyclones punch well above their weight in recruiting, and as long as Campbell doesn’t bolt for another job, they could have their best class in quite some time.

Going the wrong way in the rankings in Kansas State, whose class currently ranks No. 67 — below Western Kentucky and Duke and barely above Tulane. The Wildcats are never going to be perennial top-25 recruiters, but with some momentum on the field for Chris Klieman‘s program, it’s surprising to see them this low.

5. Pac-12

Average Team Ranking: 43
Top-Ranked Classes: Oregon (12), USC (15), Stanford (19)
Top 2022 Commits: CB Domani Jackson (No. 5), OT Kelvin Banks (No. 18), WR Tetairoa McMillan (No. 56), Devin Brown (No. 59)
Biggest Surprises: Stanford, Arizona State, Cal

If you want to talk about two teams carrying a league in recruiting, you have to mention USC, Oregon and the Pac-12. The Trojans have lots of questions marks after Clay Helton‘s firing, including whether they can keep Devin Brown committed. But if the Trojans can land a big name, they’ll be able to weather the storm. The league has just two top-15 classes, but the bigger issue is that half of the conference ranks outside the top-50 nationally.

Stanford has picked up some of the slack, pulling in a top-20 class to a school that is historically difficult to recruit to because of its academic standards. And it’s not like David Shaw‘s group has been anything special on the field lately — since 2018, they’re 20-19 overall and 15-15 in the Pac-12. Still, they’ve managed to snag seven four-stars in this cycle, including six ranked in the top-300 nationally.

The big weights dragging things down are Cal and Washington State, which are both 30-plus spots lower in the current rankings than their 2020 finish. Their on-field performance hasn’t been anything special — Cal is 3-5 and Arizona State is 5-3. But the Sun Devils have bigger problems. An NCAA investigation is underway into Herm Edwards‘ program and its handling of recruiting during the COVID-19 pandemic last season. Couple that with some less-than-stellar results the last two seasons, and the seat is getting warmer by the day.

Cal, on the other hand, is coming off a top-30 class in 2021, but hasn’t been able to replicate it this cycle. The Golden Bears lost four-star quarterback commit Justyn Martin to UCLA, and their current 10-player class doesn’t feature a single player ranked in the top 500. After back-to-back winning seasons in 2018 and 2019, things are trending in the wrong direction for Justin Wilcox and Co.