Optimistic, Pessimistic and Realistic: 2022 predictions for Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Missouri

We don’t have a crystal ball to predict the 2022 college football season. If we did, what would be the point of watching the greatest sport on earth? But with July 4 officially in the rearview mirror, the start of the season will be here before you know it. So with all the information we do have — transfer portal movement, coaching changes, offseason buzz and more — let’s have some fun with predictions. 

What happens if everything clicks for your favorite school? The dream season. What would it look like if disaster struck? If everything went wrong? What’s most likely to shake out?

Well, here are my optimistic, pessimistic and realistic predictions for Florida, Georgia, Kentucky and Missouri in 2022. 

FLORIDA

Optimistic: 9-3, including three straight wins to end the year to ignite all sorts of hype heading into 2023. Anthony Richardson proves to be the perfect dual-threat quarterback in Billy Napier’s system. Tailback Lorenzo Lingard looks like the 5-star who signed with Miami out of high school. Same for wideout Justin Shorter. The Gators’ defense takes a step forward without Todd Grantham calling the shots. Gervon Dexter emerges as the best defensive lineman in the conference. 

Pessimistic: 5-7 and no postseason appearance in Year 1 for Napier. Florida opens the year 0-2, with home losses to Utah and Kentucky. After dismantling South Florida, the Gators lose at Tennessee for just the second time in 18 years. They stumble at Tallahassee against Florida State to end the season. Richardson is up and down — or worse, gets hurt again and Jack Miller isn’t up to snuff. The lack of explosiveness at receiver is problematic all season. The front-seven once again struggles to stop the run. Penalties, team character and chemistry remain lingering issues despite the coaching change. 

Realistic: 7-5 with one signature upset against either Utah, Kentucky, Tennessee or Texas A&M. The Gators certainly could go 0-2 to start the year, but I foresee a split. While the roster has depth issues (particularly at receiver, defensive line and linebacker), there’s still a lot of quality talent in Gainesville. The pass rush, led by Brenton Cox Jr., is fierce, and cornerback Jason Marshall. is one of the better defensive backs in the SEC. Richardson has flashes of brilliance and frustration, ultimately leading him to return to the team in 2023. Arizona State transfer Ricky Pearsall has a solid season but is not the bandaid solution to Florida’s receiver problems.

GEORGIA

Optimistic: 12-0 with a SEC Championship win over Alabama and the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff. The Dawgs slayed the dragon for the title last season, and Kirby Smart records another W against his mentor in Atlanta. Georgia’s offense is finally respected, as Stetson Bennett, Brock Bowers, Arik Gilbert, and a host of former blue-chip tailbacks led the SEC in yards per play and scoring. Jalen Carter, Nolan Smithand Kelee Ringo led a Top 10 defense, and as a unit, the Dawgs best last year’s historic defense’s sack total. Arian Smith emerges as the best dynamic deep threat in the SEC and Jamon Dumas-Johnson looks like Nakobe Dean 2.0. 

Pessimistic: 10-2, with a pair of no-shows including at Mississippi State in late November. The defense naturally regresses without four 1st Round draft picks, but a young secondary takes almost all season to gel. Bennett is benched for too many giveaways, and Brock Vandargriff and Carson Beck both see action but neither take reigns of the job. 

Realistic: 11-1 and a fifth trip to Atlanta in six years. The Dawgs absolutely could go undefeated in the regular season for the second-straight year, but even with a so-so schedule, that’s a tall task for a team replacing a lot of talent. Still, Smart has recruited a monster and Georgia has studs at linebacker, defensive tackle and safety waiting for their opportunity. The offense will be legit — with whoever is behind center. Kendall Milton and Kenny McIntosh form one of the best tailback duos in all of college football. Redshirt freshmen Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins becomes Carter’s heir apparent at defensive tackle. 

KENTUCKY

Optimistic: 10-2 with a tiebreaker win over Georgia, sending the ‘Cats to Atlanta for the first time in school history. Will Levis lives up to his preseason hype as the potential No. 1 quarterback in the 2023 NFL Draft. Chris Rodriguez leads the SEC in yards and rushing touchdowns. Va Tech transfer Tayvion Robinson is able to duplicate Wan’Dale Robinson’s do-everything impact. The Wildcats’ impressive 2021 defensive line signees Justin Rogers, Octavious Oxendine and Tre’vonn Rybka— become the backbone of a Top 5 unit in the SEC. The secondary seamlessly replaces three starters, with Texas State defensive back Zion Childress becoming a sneaky late transfer portal addition.

Pessimistic: A frustrating 7-5 campaign. The Cats drink too much of their own offseason Koolaid, losing road games at Florida, Ole Miss and Tennessee, also stumbling at home against Louisville and getting waxed by Georgia. The schedule is too soft for a total implosion, but five losses stings for a Mark Stoops team looking to make a leap. Levis’ turnover issues don’t go away and the defense still can create takeaways or negative plays. The Cats can’t overcome a poor turnover margin for the second straight year. 

Realistic: Kentucky wins 8 or 9 games but is never a serious threat to Georgia for the SEC East. With Stoops’ deepest roster to date, the Wildcats beat all the teams they’re supposed to this fall. Their defensive line is a strength, creating more negative plays (just 11th in TFLs in 2021). The offensive line takes some time to become a cohesive unit but develops into a strength by season’s end. Levis eliminates some of his wild play yet still struggles to create dynamic plays against SEC defenses. New OC Rich Sangarello isn’t Liam Coen.

MISSOURI

Optimistic: 7-5 with wins at Kansas State and Auburn. Eli Drinkwitz hands the keys to journeyman Jack Abraham, who becomes the answer to the Tigers’ quarterback woes. 5-star freshman Luther Burden is an immediate stud at receiver, while Stanford transfer tailback Nathaniel Peat does his best Tyler Badie impersonation. The defense is much improved thanks to transfers like Ty’Ron Hopper, Jayden Jernigan, Joseph Charleston and Dreyden Norwood. 

Pessimistic: 3-9, including 0-8 with a loss to Vanderbilt in conference play. Missouri loses at Kansas State in Week 2, kickstarting a tailspin of eight losses in nine weeks. The Tigers fall in the only SEC game they’ll be favored in all season — a home date with the Commodores in late October. Drinkwitz is forced to rotate quarterbacks, as Abraham, Brady Cook and Tyler Macon all struggle and Sam Horn isn’t ready. Burden and Dominic Lovett need more seasoning. Trajan Jeffcoat fails to record more than four sacks for the second-straight fall. 

Realistic: 5-7, including 4-0 in the non-conference. The Tigers struggle to compete in the SEC, especially with the continued growth at South Carolina and Tennessee. Burden, Tauskie Dove and others flash but consistency is an issue. Kris Abrams-Draine develops into one of the better cornerbacks in the league but he can’t shoulder the defense alone, particularly when it comes to stopping the run. Ultimately, Drinkwitz enters Year 4 feeling a some heat.