Optimistic, Pessimistic, Realistic: 2022 predictions for South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas A&M and Vanderbilt

We don’t have a crystal ball to predict the 2022 college football season. If we did, what would be the point of watching the greatest sport on earth?

But with July 4 officially in the rearview mirror, the start of the season will be here before you know it. So with all the information we do have — transfer portal movement, coaching changes, offseason buzz and more — let’s have some fun with predictions. 

What happens if everything clicks for your favorite school? The dream season. 

What would it look like if disaster struck? If everything went wrong?

What’s most likely to shake out?

We conclude our series of optimistic, pessimistic and realistic predictions with South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas A&M and Vanderbilt in 2022. 

SOUTH CAROLINA

Optimistic: 9-3, with Gamecocks snapping a seven-game losing streak to in-state rival Clemson and their fans dreaming about a chance to go the SEC Championship Game in 2023. Shane Beamer has it cooking in Columbia, as Spencer Rattler provides the gasoline to ignite a static South Carolina offense. By teaming up with fellow transfers Austin Stogner, Christian Beal-Smith, Antwane Wells and Corey Rucker, Rattler is a darkhorse Heisman Trophy contender. Marshawn Lloydis great, the OL is serviceable enough and hybrid quarterback/receiver Dak Joyner does a little bit of everything for the Gamecocks. Defensively, former blue-chip DL recruits Zacch Pickens and Jordan Burch have breakout junior seasons, while a thin secondary stays healthy and is led by top SEC corner Cam Smith .

Pessimistic: 4-8, a bummer of a season after Beamer exceeded all expectations in Year 1. The close wins over Troy, Vandy and Auburn turn into losses with a tougher schedule that includes road games at Arkansas, Kentucky and Florida. Rattler isn’t quite ready for primetime with two Top 25 matchups in the first three weeks of the season, and the ‘Cocks crater in their ‘Orange Crush’ finish, losing to UF, Tennessee and Clemson to end the season. The offensive line is one of the worst units in the SEC again, and the defensive continues to be ineffective creating negative plays. 

Realistic: 7-5, with South Carolina fans disappointed in the record even though the team is better overall than its 2021 version. Progress isn’t always linear. Rattler brings juice and stability to the offense, but the protection concerns remain real all year. Super seniorJosh Vann emerges as this season’s Cedric Tillman. The Gamecocks are better along the line of scrimmage defensively but they miss the edge presence of Kingsley Enagbare. The lack of depth in the secondary catches up to them late in the season. 

TENNESSEE 

Optimistic: 10-2, with Josh Heupel winning SEC Coach of the Year and Big Orange Nation declaring the Vols “BACK!” They get revenge against Pitt on the road and also beat Florida, LSU and Kentucky, giving them their first 10-win season in 15 years. Hendon Hooker leads the SEC in touchdowns and Heupel’s all gas, no breaks offense is actually what Steve Sarkisian wants his Texas unit to be. Former 5-star wideout Bru McCoy emerges as a dynamic second-option opposite Tillman. Tennessee’s offensive line becomes much better at protecting the passer (44 sacks allowed in 2021). The defense is more than serviceable and Bryon Young develops into a star pass rusher, recording 10 sacks. The transfer portal additions of Wesley Walker and Andre Turrentine help stabilize a shaky secondary.

Pessimistic: 5-7, with Tennessee fans questioning if Year 1 was merely a mirage. September could be awesome (see above) but it could also be awful, as the Vols lose at Pitt and then continue their rough play against the Gators two weeks later. Tennessee has had Kentucky’s number, but that changes, too. While the offense is guaranteed to score points in bunches, the defense is way worse without Alontae Taylor and Matthew Butler. The Vols remain awful at keeping teams out of the end once they reach the red zone. Their secondary gets sliced and diced on a weekly basis. 

Realistic: 8-4, securing a New Year’s Day bowl game in the Sunshine State for Vol Nation. Nine wins isn’t out of the question if the opening month goes well. Tennessee averages north of 40 points per game in 2022, needing to score even more to cover for a defense that still can’t stop anyone consistently. The concerns at cornerback are real, with the Vols constantly rotating a cast of characters looking for suitable replacements for Taylor and Bryce Thompson. Penalties (11th in the SEC last season) are an issue again, too. 

TEXAS A&M

Optimistic: 11-1, with an at-large berth to the College Football Playoff. Riding a tidal wave of offseason momentum, Jimbo Fisher wins 10+ games for the first time with the Aggies. Nick Saban gets his payback, but the Aggies secure marquee victories against Miami, Ole Miss, Arkansas and LSU. Max Johnson is an All-SEC caliber quarterback and Devon Achane plays like Alvin Kamara, leading the conference in all-purpose yards. The Aggies finally generate some explosive passing plays (just 34 plays over 20 yards in 2021), with 5-star freshman Evan Stewart and veteran Ainias Smith providing the fireworks. A young defensive line coalesces into one of the nastiest groups in the nation, with former 5-stars Shemar Turnerand Tunmise Adeleye leading the way. A loaded secondary (Antonio Johnson Jr, Demani Richardson, Jaylon Jones, Denver Harris, etc.) leads the SEC in interceptions 

Pessimistic: 7-5, with Aggie fans questioning what all the chest-thumping was about this offseason. Texas A&M stumbles at home against Miami, kickstarting a bad six-week stretch that includes defeats against Alabama, Arkansas, Mississippi State and Ole Miss. Fisher doesn’t settle on a quarterback, rotating Johnson, Haynes King and Conner Weigman. The offense still can’t generate big plays. Achane isn’t an effective every down back, with the unit missing Isaiah Spiller. Likewise, the defense misses the coordination of Mike Elko, needing more time to adjust to DJ Durkin. The Aggies’ defense is still good but regresses against the run (just 3.6 yards per carry allowed in 2021) without DeMarvin Leal, Tyree Johnson and a couple other contributors from last year. Linebacker depth rears its ugly head by November. 

Realistic: 9-3, with the Aggies still a year away from being a year away. Double-digit wins aren’t out of the question though, especially if Fisher finds an early answer at quarterback. Achane is a star, and the Aggies are actually better at running the football with a veteran OL and deeper pool of tailbacks. The offense is slightly more potent than recent Fisher attacks. The defensive line misses Leal early, but becomes a ferocious unit season’s end. 5-star Denver Harris emerges as an All-SEC caliber corner as a freshman. Many others in Texas A&M’s historic 2022 recruiting class find a role by late October. The Aggies lose a game they shouldn’t, continuing a yearly trend in College Station.  

VANDERBILT

Optimistic: 5-7, losing a close game to Tennessee to end the year and just missing the chance to go bowling in Year 2 under Clark Lea. The Commodores build on a brewing energy within the program, beating Hawaii in Week 0 and finishing September 3-1 before a trip to Tuscaloosa. The SEC slate still isn’t overly kind, but Vandy snaps the nation’s longest conference losing streak by beating Missouri in late October. They pull-off another upset two weeks later, catching a South Carolina team looking ahead. Mike Wright and AJ Swann both look solid at QB, while freshman wideouts Jayden McGowan and Dave Walker give Vandy fans lots of hope for the future. The defense — with five starters back coupled with the transfer portal additions of Jeremy Lucien and Kane Patterson — shows significant signs of improvement in Lea’s second season, as the former Notre Dame DC takes a more hands on approach. 

Pessimistic: 1-11 and another winless slate in the SEC. Vandy only beats Elon, as the recent dark days on the West End continue. Lea continues to preach patience and process, as a young roster with promise still isn’t ready to compete on a weekly basis. Wright isn’t the longterm answer at QB and Swann isn’t ready either. Same for former starter Ken Seals. The offensive line is a disaster without long-time left tackleTyler Steen and the defense still can’t sack the quarterback (nine sacks in 2021 — fewest among all FBS programs). 

Realistic: 3-9, with the program’s first win in SEC play since 2019. Lea has turned over the roster compared to what it looked like just 12 months ago, but the ‘Dores still aren’t at a place where they can push most teams each week. They’ll catch someone this fall, though, merely because they play hard and don’t quit. The running game (featuring Re’Mahn Davis, Rocko Griffin and Patrick Smith) is legit but the OL problems cap the unit’s upside. Wright likely isn’t the answer at QB. The defense is better but still struggles to offer much resistance on a down-to-down basis.