Optimistic, Realistic, Pessimistic: 2022 predictions for LSU, Mississippi State and Ole Miss

We don’t have a crystal ball to predict the 2022 college football season. If we did, what would be the point of watching the greatest sport on earth?

But with July 4 officially in the rearview mirror, the start of the season will be here before you know it. So with all the information we do have — transfer portal movement, coaching changes, offseason buzz and more — let’s have some fun with predictions. 

What happens if everything clicks for your favorite school? The dream season. 

What would it look like if disaster struck? If everything went wrong?

What’s most likely to shake out?

We continue our series with my optimistic, pessimistic and realistic predictions for LSU, Mississippi State and Ole Miss in 2022. 

LSU

Optimistic: 10-2, with the Tigers talking titles for 2023. Brian Kelly’s cultural change takes effect immediately, leading a talented team to come together and win 10 games, including an upset at Texas A&M to end the year. The QB derby sorts itself out, with Jayden Daniels emerging as a superior version of the freshman who led Arizona State to a surprising season three years ago. John Emery rushes for 1,000 yards, while Kayshon Boutte, Jack Bech, Jaray Jenkins and Kyren Lacy form the SEC’s top WR room. LSU’s defensive line spearheads a unit that is Top 25 nationally in sacks and tackles for loss. A secondary that starts five transfers meshes seamlessly. 

Pessimistic: 4-8, losing every single toss-up game. Such dramatic change is too much for Year 1. It’s not just a new head coach, but new OC, DC, 15 transfers and a true freshman starting at left tackle. The offensive line remains a problem all season, and Kelly can’t settle on a starting quarterback. Boutte doesn’t stay healthy for the second-straight season and the Tigers still can’t run the ball (just 3.3. yards per carry in 2021). Defensively, the secondary continues to get shredded (SEC-high 29 touchdowns allowed last year). 

Realistic: 7-5. The Tigers open the year with a win over Florida State in New Orleans, and the rest of September is quite manageable. Then it gets tough for the Bayou Bengals. Outside of a home-tilt with Alabama, LSU is close to a coin-flip favorite or ‘dog in the rest of its conference slate. A roster that exists in extremes has the expected highs (an awesome pass rush led by Maason Smith, Jaquelin Roy, Ali Gaye and BJ Ojulari) and lows (an OL with a freshman and several non Power-5 transfers still struggles). Multiple quarterbacks see action. The run game and secondary show signs of improvement, but not drastically enough to deliver Kelly another 8-win season in Year 1 at a new program.

MISSISSIPPI STATE

Optimistic: 9-3, giving the Bulldogs their best season since 2017. The Year 3 Mike Leach bump takes effect, as the SEC’s most veteran (17 returning starters) squad wins road games at LSU, Kentucky and Ole Miss. Will Rogers is the best quarterback in the league not named Bryce Young, and the offense generates more dynamic plays with new faces at receiver (Justin Robinson and Jordan Mosley). The transfer portal additions solves State’s kicking woes. The Bulldogs’ defensive line creates more havoc and the upgrades in the secondary (three new corners and one transfer safety) pay off. The Leach-Lane Kiffin bromance finally fizzles after the Bulldogs run up the score in the Egg Bowl. 

Pessimistic: 4-8 and possibly looking for a new coach (or a reunion with an old friend). State’s schedule (SEC West + Georgia and Kentucky) is a gauntlet even an experienced team can’t overcome. Another Egg Bowl loss. Without its starting bookend tackles from 2021, the OL struggles to protect Rogers, and Leach still refuses to run the football. The Bulldogs’ red zone offense remains dreadful. Zach Arnett’s unit is solid against the run but can’t get off the field on 3rd down (95th nationally in 2021). 

Realistic: 7-5, with one marquee upset (at Texas A&M or Ole Miss to end the season perhaps?) sprinkled in. The Bulldogs’ Air Raid offense gives a few teams trouble, but overall, their inability to consistently generate explosive plays limits the unit’s ceiling. They’ll miss Charles Cross and Scott Lashely, especially for a line that still allowed 34 sacks in 2021 anyways. Emmanuel Forbes is a quality SEC cornerback, but the rest of the new additions in the secondary struggles to match his production. Even with Jordan Davis‘ return from an ACL injury, the pass rush is still suspect. 

OLE MISS

Optimistic: 10-2, with the Lane Train riding a cast of talented newcomers to the Rebels’ second ever double-digit win regular season and a second-straight Sugar Bowl appearance. Ole Miss breezes through the first two months of its schedule before going 3-2 during a brutal final six weeks. It wins the Egg Bowl for the third straight season. The Rebels’ run game remains awesome (tops in the SEC in yards and rushing touchdowns in 2021) with transfers Zach Evans and Ulysses Bentley a powerful 1-2 punch. Jaxson Dart wins the quarterback competition and has no issues replicating Matt Corral’s crazy production. Transfers Michael Trigg and Jaylon Robinson are game-changers in Kiffin’s offense. At least seven transfers become impactful pieces defensively, highlighted by defensive tackle JJ Pegues and outside linebacker Khari Coleman . 

Pessimistic: 5-7, losing the Egg Bowl to miss a chance to play in the postseason. Kiffin was right, the game “isn’t played on paper.” All the new pieces — 17 transfers and new OC and DC — don’t fit just right. Although the running game is stout, Dart is still a turnover machine and Luke Altymer isn’t much more effective. Evans can’t stay healthy. Without DJ Durkin, the defense regresses closer to its 2020 form (SEC-worst 38.3 points per game allowed). All the front-seven reinforcements still don’t solve Ole Miss’ inability to stop the run. 

Realistic: 8-4. A cake non-conference schedule (Troy, Central Arkansas, Tulsa, Georgia Tech) almost guarantees the Rebels go bowling in 2022, but Ole Miss feels the impact of no Corral, Jerrion Ealy, Snoop Conner, Dontario Drummond or Sam Williams. The offense remains full of fireworks, but resembles the 2020 unit (lots of yards and points but turnovers too) not 2021. Both Dart and Altmyer play. Evans is in and out of the lineup. Defensively, first-year DC Chris Partridge is more aggressive than his predecessor, leading to better sack and TFL totals, but also more big plays allowed.