Oregon vs. Utah point spread: Picking Ducks vs. Utes

There will be a lot on the line for both Oregon and Utah when the two Pac-12 schools meet Saturday in a top 25 clash. The Ducks and Utes both already have one loss and another here would all but eliminate them from College Football Playoff contention.

Not only that, but it would make their path to playing for a conference title that much more difficult. On3‘s Andy Staples and Clark Brooks teamed up to make their predictions for the game, in which Oregon is a 7-point road favorite according to FanDuel.

Utah seems to have found a rhythm offensively over the past few weeks, having scored a season-high 34 points against both Cal and USC. For that reason, Brooks likes the Utes to not only cover, but win outright at home.

“Kyle Whittingham is fantastic,” he said. “We just found out Cam Rising and Brant Kuithe, they’re gonna be shut down the rest of the year and it just seems irrelevant at this point because they’re playing so good. (Bryson) Barnes, he did take a hit near the end of that game and I don’t know if he’s gonna be a little bit banged up entering this weekend. But it was interesting to me that after that late hit where he took a little bit of a smack, he did not have a catchable pass on a throwaway, but his legs put them in position for the last field goal.

“I think it’s gonna come down to who can tackle better in space. Bo Nix has been a little bit of a conservative quarterback. He’s throwing passes really close to the line of scrimmage. His average depth of target this year is under seven yards. So clearly below the national mean and that’s put a lot of heavy lifting into their receivers. Troy Franklin, Tez Johnson, they’re obviously very great pass catchers in their own right. But the way Utah is playing, they are easily a home dog that I cannot ignore at 5.5. …I think because of how Utah tackles better and gets off the field better, they’re gonna be able to come away not only with a cover, but a money line win straight up.”

Barnes had perhaps his best performance all year in last week’s win against USC. He threw for 235 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for 57 more and another score. His 26-yard run near the end of the game set up the game-winning field goal as time expired.

Staples, however, doesn’t believe things will come that easy against this Oregon defense. He noted that Utah has yet to face a team with the level of athletes the Ducks have and could see them disrupting the flow the offense has gotten into of late.

After all, Oregon is tied for second in the country with 4.2 sacks per game.

“Utah went to Corvallis where, what do they have in Corvallis? People who are really good on the line of scrimmage,” Staples explained. “They shut this offense down. Granted, Utah was trying to figure itself out at the time. But the level of athletes that Oregon has on the defensive line is something that Utah has not this year.

“My concern is when Utah faces a defense who has really, really good athletes who are put in the correct places are they good enough to operate? Are they good enough to score? UCLA shut ’em down, too. Seven of Utah’s 14 points were a pick-six.”

Brooks admitted that, even with the way Utah has been playing of late, Oregon’s defense is a concern. However, he is sticking with his guns in the belief that the Utes can overcome that and come away with a victory at home.

“They’re trying to figure out who they are,” he said. “I just think they’re finding a lot of pieces. At the same time, that kind of works in their favor because opponent-wise, when you have to prepare for that, it’s like, ‘what are we gonna see?’ I just think that element of surprise and playing at home, even though Dan Lanning is basically trying to replicate that same style of defense that Kirby Smart has had.

“I just think sometimes 12 personnel, under center, you can find wins that way staying ahead of the chains. I think Utah’s able to do that. Oregon’s the better team for a reason. They’re favored for a reason. I just really like the way Utah’s playing of late.”

Kickoff between Utah and Oregon is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday in Salt Lake City.